The Cubs are on an extended hot streak for a myriad of reasons.
There’s been major production from the bottom of the lineup lately, especially from emerging youngsters Pete Crow-Armstrong and Miguel Amaya — not to mention, a seven-RBI game from backup catcher Christian Bethancourt out of the No. 9 spot on Wednesday.
There’s been the emergence of the bullpen, too. Shaky during the first half of the season, it has coalesced and now ranks in the top 10 in bullpen ERA in MLB.
There’s also been the steady top four in the starting rotation. Shota Imanaga, Justin Steele, Javier Assad and Jameson Taillon have continued to churn out quality starts all season.
And, maybe most important of all, there’s been the Taylor Swift effect.
Indeed, the Cubs are surely feeling good during their off-day Thursday as they prepare to conclude a three-city, nine-game road trip out East this weekend.
The Cubs finished off a sweep of the Pirates on Wednesday afternoon in Pittsburgh with arguably their most inspiring win of the season, rallying for a 14-10 victory after trailing 10-3 going into the seventh inning. They scored 11 unanswered runs to beat the Pirates and finish with an astounding 41 runs for the three-game series.
The Cubs are 5-1 on their current road trip and have won four straight series since being swept in Cleveland in mid-August. They’re 16-8 in August with two games left this month and have gone 29-18 since July 3, when a loss dropped them to a season-worst nine games under .500.
That’s the good news.
While the last month-plus has been mostly enjoyable for the Cubs and their fans, it will only really matter — aside from taking positives into 2025 and beyond — if they can reach the postseason for the first time in a non-COVID-shortened season since 2018.
And in that regard, the numbers are not in the Cubs’ favor.
Despite their recent hot streak, the Cubs are still just two games over .500 overall, at 68-66. Unfortunately, their lackluster May (10-18) and June (11-16) have counter-balanced their hot April (17-10) and now August.
FanGraphs’ MLB playoff odds entering play Thursday still give the Cubs only a 3.6% chance to reach the postseason.
So, what will they have to do to beat those odds?
No easy path
The Cubs aren’t officially eliminated from the National League Central race, but they’re almost beyond even miracle territory to pull off a division title.
While the Cubs have gotten hot, the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers have stayed hot themselves, going 15-9 in August entering Thursday, so the Cubs haven’t really gained ground. They enter Thursday nine games behind the Brewers, but it’s really 10, because the Brewers won the season series and thus own the tiebreaker.
The Cubs only have 28 games left and the Brewers 30, including Thursday. Making up that type of ground in so few games would require historic circumstances, to say the least.
There’s less ground to make up in the NL Wild Card standings, but still a lot.
Entering Thursday, the Cubs remained 5.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves for the third and final NL Wild Card. Again, they haven’t made up ground in that race, either, because the Braves have been white-hot, too, winning 12 of their last 16.
Ditto for the NL Wild Card leaders. The Arizona Diamondbacks currently hold the top spot, 8.5 games ahead of the Cubs, followed by the San Diego Padres, 7.5 ahead of the Cubs. Both those teams have been torrid since the All-Star break and have virtually put the top two NL Wild Card spots on lockdown.
The good news for the Cubs in the wild-card race is that at least they’re separating from other contenders. The only team between them and the Braves entering Thursday is the New York Mets, just 1.5 games ahead of Chicago.
But there’s another problem here: Since the Cubs lost the season series to the Braves and Mets, they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker with both teams. And they also lost the season series with the San Francisco Giants, just a game behind the Cubs entering Thursday.
Given these daunting circumstances, obviously the only thing the Cubs can do is keep winning games at a torrid pace and see how it all works out.
The schedule does work in their favor. Including this weekend’s three-game set against the Nationals in Washington, D.C., six of the Cubs’ nine remaining series are against teams currently under .500.
Suppose the Cubs win all of their remaining series, including a four-gamer, but have no sweeps. That would give them an 87-75 record at the end of the season. Last season, the Cubs finished 83-79 and missed the playoffs by a game.
The odds are long, but at least there’s hope. And as Andy tells Red in “The Shawshank Redemption”: Hope is a good thing.