The data story coming out of an exciting 31-24 Irish win over the Cardinals.
That was a hell of a college football game.
Notre Dame pulled of a 31-24 victory over the Louisville Cardinals to bring themselves to 4-1 going into the Week 6 bye. Rankings are super subjective this season but the Cardinals entered the game as #15 in the AP poll and the Irish were sitting right under at #16. Most folks predicted that it would be a close game and it definitely delivered in that regard.
The big question was how/if Notre Dame would be able to do enough. And although there were some rough patches, we got to see this Irish team play pretty energized and committed against a high-level, competent opponent.
The game also stands out because it’s a prime example of how the tiniest of margins and moments can make big picture analytics so misleading.
More on that later.
Offensive Summary
The first quarter or last week’s game didn’t produce a lot of entertainment value but man did things liven up this weekend. Louisville got off to a quick lead, the result of a special teams’ mishap that seemed like a terrible omen.
Side note: I actually missed that kickoff and only caught the Cardinal touchdown because I was trying to find the game. Not realizing that it was on the Peacock app. Don’t want to complain, but yes I’m complaining.
Notre Dame, assisted by some serious intervention from the CFB fates, rallied on the offensive, defensive and special team sides of the ball to end up outscoring Louisville 21-7 in the 1st quarter. And even though it ended up being a real nail biter of a game, the defenses took over from the 2nd to 4th quarters and the scoreboard hides what was a pretty interesting game for offense minded folks. The Cardinals outscored the Irish 10-7 in the 4th quarter but the home team’s early success was enough to secure the win.
Scoring Details
The Irish offense continued to diversify this week, at least from a scoring perspective. The team recorded two passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns and a field goal to fill out their 31 points. It wasn’t ND’s highest scoring game for the season but it was the most balanced, from both quant and visual perspectives.
Drive Summary
The drive summaries for both teams leave a lot to be desired. Notre Dame’s overall success really depended on early drives and a 75-yard touchdown drive late in the 4th quarter. The stuff in between wasn’t great but was at least clean enough to not sink the ship.
Offensive Benchmarks
Looking at the Louisville game demonstrates how misleading the analytics pictures can end up being. By most metrics, this was one of Notre Dame’s worst offensive showings so far in the 2024 season. They only put up 280 yards of total offense, compared with 286 yards against NIL. And also similar to the NIU game, the passing game outproduced the rushing game from a yardage perspective. The Irish had 163 yards through the air and 117 yards on the ground.
A key stat, I think, is that the passing accuracy was much better against Louisville. The most passing attempts Notre Dame has made through Week 5 was 33 against Northern Illinois, with A&M coming in second at 30. The team only made 23 passing attempts against Louisville, the season’s floor, but hit an accuracy high of 74%.
Rushing efficiency was at its lowest for the team, with an average of 3.8 yards per carry.
Rushing Details
Notre Dame has been averaging 34.2 rushing carries per game through Week 5. They hit a low of 28 carries against Northern Illinois and were slightly above that against Louisville with 29. The load this week was spread across the usual suspects. Riley Leonard led the group with 13 carries for 52 yards and one touchdown. Jeremiyah Love recorded 11 carries for 34 yards and one touchdown. The Louisville defense was exactly what folks described if not more. And even though the stats don’t really show it the Irish did pretty well given the what they had to deal with.
Receiving Details
In another wrinkle for Notre Dame’s 2024 offensive saga, running back Jeremiyah Love led the team’s receiving group with five receptions. Although he was far from the leader in terms of production with only 27 receiving yards, he recorded a receiving touchdown and it shows how the Irish are willing to mix things up in whatever ways are necessary to pull off wins. And I really appreciate that.
The most impactful receiver for the Louisville game was Jaden Greathouse. He tallied up four receptions for 61 yards and a touchdown. Picking winners from game to game for the Irish receiving corps is probably a terrible wagering proposition. But again. Getting the job done and trying to survive what’s turning out to be a gauntlet 2024 season for college football in general is the mission.
Defensive Summary
As anticipated, the Notre Dame defense was forced to play another tough game. This time it wasn’t all on the offense but more so just a Louisville team that decided to make the touted ND pass defense earn its acclaim.
Opposing offenses are averaging around 292 yards per game against the 2024 Irish defense. Louisville performed the best so far with 437 yards of total offense. Offenses are averaging 161 yards through the air and the Cardinals recorded 264 yards. That’s not far off where they were coming into South Bend but was also their lowest total through Week 5.
Offenses are averaging around 131 rushing yards per game against Notre Dame. Louisville is around the middle of that pack, with 173 yards recorded on the ground against ND.
Key Metrics
Freshman cornerback Leonard Moore and senior safety Jordan Clark ended up having to work a lot, from a tackling perspective. But generally, the tackle data shows just how much the Irish secondary and linebackers had to deal with, based on how the Cardinals’ offense decided to attack. Collectively, the defense had three sacks, seven tackles for loss and eight pass deflections. I wouldn’t call myself a Stan for the Notre Dame defense just yet but I’m well on my way to getting there. Sure it wasn’t perfect but they held a pretty talented Louisville offense to their lowest scoring game, even though the Cardinal’s still had a very good game by the detailed numbers.
Final Thoughts
I’ve got no complaints worth writing about going into the bye.
The Irish demonstrated a lot of positive things against Louisville across the board. I’m hoping that the defense get some rest, particularly the secondary, because they’ve been getting peppered and some of that is starting to show. The offense will continue to get better at putting points up, even if it’s unorthodox.
Injuries are a concern but there seems to be something going on right culturally with the program that has players stepping in and making solid attempts/contributions when and how they are called up. Analyzing that kind of stuff isn’t my strength so I could be completely off. It does make me feel a bit fuzzier on the inside, though, about Notre Dame’s prospects for finishing out the season on a strong note.
Cheers and Go Irish!!