Analyzing the preseason strength of the Irish’s 1st four opponents for the 2024 season.
Preseason strength of schedule analyses have always stirred up mixed feelings for me.
On one hand, it’s a really interesting way to analyze teams before we’ve got any real performance data to work with. But the downside is that there are a million ways you can design methodologies and the odds that any of their results remain relevant after week 2 are like a million to one. But it’s still July and I’m itching for CFB distractions from the real world so let’s give it a go.
I went into this article with a whole lot of hesitancy, given that Notre Dame’s 2024 football schedule looks sketchy enough just at a quick glance. The analysis isn’t intended to stack ND’s schedule up against other programs but mostly to try and get a deeper read on the 2024 opponents who don’t stand out at face value. And even though the analysis’ outcomes don’t paint a much rosier picture of the Irish’s 2024 strength of schedule, hopefully they’ll help us keep track of things once the action starts.
Note: The shelf lives for preseason strength of schedule analyses are particularly short, regardless of the team. So we’ll break it out into three parts, operating off the idea that results for teams later in the season will be overwritten by 2024 performance.
Let’s kick things off with the 1st four games.
Game 1: Texas A&M – Kyle Field, Texas
Analysis Rank: #2
College Football 25 Overall Power Ranking | 88 vs. 90 (Notre Dame)
The Aggies are coming into 2024 with an overall, 5-year record of 37-23 (0.62). They are 0.54 against conference opponents (SEC) and 0.79 in 19 out-of-conference games. They were statistically at their best in 2020*, ending the season 9-1 with a +10.9 differential per game. Texas A&M’s 2020 season left a lot to be desired but they turned things around a bit in 2023. They finished the previous season with a 7-6 overall record and +11.2 differential per game. There’s a lot going on in College Station right now and the SEC more broadly but I imagine the Aggies will be formidable this season.
Game 2: Northern Illinois – Notre Dame Stadium, IN
Analysis Rank: #7
College Football 25 Overall Power Ranking | 73 vs. 90 (Notre Dame)
Northern Illinois’s performance over the last five seasons has been a story of ups and downs. They tallied up five wins in 2019 but dropped all six games during the 2020* season. The program found success in 2021 but they hit another valley in 2022, ending with an overall record of 3-9. Things rebounded in 2023 and the Huskies closed out the season with a 7-6 record and +3.9 differential per game. Hard to call whether they’ll fall in line with their feast/famine history in 2024.
Game 3: Purdue – Ross-Ade Stadium, IN
Analysis Rank: #10
College Football 25 Overall Power Ranking | 82 vs. 90 (Notre Dame)
After less-than-optimal outings in 2019 and 2020, Purdue turned things around in a good way during the 2021 season. The Boilermakers finished up 9-4 with a +6.7 differential per game. But things have dropped off at a decent tick since then. Their 8-6, 2022 season wasn’t that bad but they’ll be entering 2024 coming off the heels of a 4-8 campaign. While a lot of fans will be glad to see the in-state rivalry return for the first time since 2021, the Big Ten expansion makes Purdue’s football life a lot harder moving forward. And selfishly, that’ll probably rub off on Notre Dame’s 2024 strength of schedule conversations.
Game 4: Miami (OH) – Notre Dame Stadium, IN
Analysis Rank: #5
College Football 25 Overall Power Ranking | 80 vs. 90 (Notre Dame)
Miami (OH) has been pretty stable during the last 5 seasons, with an overall record of 34-23. Their worst performance (excluding 2020) during the period was a 6-7 outing in 2022. That was followed up by an 11-3, +9.7 differential per game performance in 2023. The RedHawks’ 2023 season was marked by not only more wins but also steeper wins, compared with results from previous seasons. They may not be as weak of an opponent for the Irish as it seems just based on name recognition.
Full Season Results
Game 1 – Texas A&M: #2
Game 2 – Northern Illinois: #7
Game 3 – Purdue: #10
Game 4 – Miami (OH): #5
Game 5 – Louisville: TBD
Game 6 – Stanford: TBD
Game 7 – Georgia Tech: TBD
Game 8 – Navy: TBD
Game 9 – Florida State: TBD
Game 10 – Virginia: TBD
Game 11 – Army: TBD
Game 12 – USC: TBD