We need not review this space’s Michigan-Northwestern predictions in depth. The most important of them – that Kalel Mullings would get more than one first-half carry – came true, nominally. Mullings got three whole first-half carries, all on the first drive, and one for an ultimately decisive touchdown. Bowl eligibility, huzzah. We wave a tiny victory flag and move forward.
It is irrelevant that Mullings went on to amass 92 yards on 12 carries and score two more touchdowns. For one thing, this year’s Northwestern is scientifically designed to pad stats and raise hope, which is inadvisable as Michigan barrels toward an industrial baler in Columbus. Secondly, Mullings’ success only underscores his baffling lack of usage by Kirk Campbell and Sherrone Moore.
Thus, there are no celebrations for a 50-point outburst against the Wildcats. Instead, attention is already turned toward Bryce Underwood and the myriad tantalizing possibilities of his mere presence in Ann Arbor. And why shouldn’t that be the focus? The 2024 season is, for all intents and purposes, already in the rearview mirror for the maize and blue faithful.
Although, there is that matter of a quick jaunt into the heart of Ohio to be ceremonially pantsed by the Buckeyes.
Accounting for Injuries
Michigan would be a heavy underdog even with a squad at full strength. As it happens, they head to Columbus with unfortunate injuries at crucial positions. Star cornerback Will Johnson has missed four games straight, and at this point may be making a business decision to miss The Game and keep his eye on the NFL Draft. Can’t fault him for that. Colston Loveland set the program record for single-season tight end receptions last week, then promptly exited the contest. If he can’t go against OSU, the Wolverine passing attack is effectively moot.
Additional Wolverine injuries that would change this game’s outlook if healthy: safety Rod Moore, offensive linemen Andrew Gentry and Jeff Persi, and receivers Semaj Morgan and Amorion Walker.
On the other sideline, the injury list is smaller but similarly impactful. Buckeye offensive linemen Josh Simmons and Seth McLaughlin are both out for the season, offering a sliver of hope for the Maize and Blue. Michigan’s defensive line was already going to be their one true advantage in this game. Now, their fearsome foursome will have a chance to create the pocket and plug gaps against backups.
Granted, Buckeye backups tend to have the kind of pedigree that would make them starters at any other school. Still, offensive line play is all about trust and personnel consistency, with which Michigan fans are all too familiar. If Mason Graham, Kenneth Grant, Josaiah Stewart, and Derrick Moore can get the Buckeyes off schedule, you can squint and see a rocky, ugly path to at least a competitive game, if not a Michigan win.
The Game: Narrative vs. Numbers
Memory is a fickle thing. Michigan’s three-year win streak in this matchup fills Wolverine hearts with pride and glory. It also helps mask the previous two decades’ worth of Ohio State dominance. Fortunes can change quickly in this rivalry, but they can also stagnate seemingly to no end.
We all know the history – the Snow Bowl (1950), the Ten Year War between Woody and Bo, the “Game of the Century” #1 vs. #2 matchup in 2006, and so forth. It is commonly prescribed that we ‘throw out the records’ when The Game rolls around because both teams have prepared 364 previous days for this moment.
And yet, this year, ‘throwing out the records’ does not suffice. It ignores very clear and evident data accumulated over eleven games. The Buckeyes are a top-five team by most conceivable metrics. The Wolverines are not. Both teams have top-25 ranked Strengths-of-Schedule, so it would be incorrect to say that OSU has padded the schedule with cupcake wins (a common – and fair – assessment of last year’s Michigan team). Ryan Day’s only loss this year came in a hotly contested matchup with #1 Oregon. A quick glance at the two teams’ shared opponents offers further confirmation that Ohio State is on a different plane this year.
Michigan, by contrast, looks less like the team that dominated 2021-2023 and more like any number of the 2001-2019 teams that gave the Buckeyes a real fight only to inevitably crumple. Their offense, Northwestern explosion aside, is a nonstarter. On one hand, Wink Martindale’s defense has settled down lately. On the other, the same could’ve been said for Don Brown’s 2018 and 2019 units which were summarily defenestrated. By almost any measure, this should not be a contest.
And Yet…There’s Always A Chance
Ohio State needs a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Victory secures a rematch with Oregon for the Big Ten Title, where a win puts them in the driver’s seat for a first-round bye. Day needs a win to escape the haunting whispers of ‘John Cooper’ that cloud his mentions. Buckeye seniors across the roster need a win in their last chance to secure a pair of gold pants. To reiterate: Ohio State needs a win.
By contrast, the Wolverines don’t need anything, save a new offensive coordinator. A loss in this game is an all-but foregone conclusion. Thus, Moore and his charges have a chance to play like a team with nothing to lose, which is often precisely fuel for an upset special.
Create havoc at the line of scrimmage, force a few productive turnovers, run Mullings 40 times, and hold onto the ball for 40 minutes. If it’s going to happen, that’s how. It’s difficult to see success with any other game plan, and even this one’s chances for success are minimal.
The Bottom Line
Ohio State boasts a dominant defense with a claim as the best in FBS this year. Their efficient offense is chock full of frightening weapons. Freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith has not played a down against Michigan, and yet Wolverine fans have already spent sleepless nights imagining the damage he’ll do over the next three iterations of this matchup.
Michigan boasts…Bryce Underwood.
This year’s Game is squarely in ‘Not In The Face’ territory for the Wolverines. They’ll take their medicine and move on towards crucial bowl game practices in preparation for another try in 2025.
That is, of course, unless they can Shock The World.
Predictions:
- Michigan does not ‘Shock The World.’
- But, the Wolverine defensive line gets four sacks.
- Smith toasts two different cornerbacks for big gains.
- Gus Johnson comes up with three inexplicable new ‘nicknames’ for Buckeye players that will be used by no one else but him.
- Ohio State 42, Michigan 17
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