The data story for 11-1 Indiana going into the Playoff matchup against Notre Dame.
The 2024 College Football Playoff is upon us!
Notre Dame has earned itself a #5 spot in the final rankings and 7-seed in the bracket. They’ll face off against the Indiana Hoosiers at home in South Bend in the inaugural First Round of the 12-team format. There were several iffy moments along the Irish’s 11-1 journey to this point but the team is looking like it’s in peak form.
So let’s comb through some of the numbers to see what we can expect from Notre Dame’s neighbor to the south.
Regular Season Summary
The Hoosiers are coming into the CFP with an overall record of 11-1. Their only loss during the regular season was to Ohio State (#6 ranking and 10-seed). They dropped their game against the Buckeyes by a wide 23-point margin.
Big Picture
Indiana’s offense finished the regular season averaging 439 yards per game and their defense allowed an average of 245 total offensive yards per game. The team’s big offensive standouts were the +74 win against Western Illinois (701 yards) and the +66 win over Purdue (582 yards).
The season ending rout of the Boilermakers helped break a stretch of underwhelming offensive performances by Indiana. They had 312 yards in the Washington game and 385 yards in the Michigan State game. Then their total offensive production crept down to 246 yards against Michigan and only 151 yards against Ohio State.
Indiana’s defense started off the season strong enough, got kind of porous through the middle and improved at the end. Of the big name opponents, they did the best against Michigan State (193 yards allowed) and Michigan (206 yards allowed). Mostly all of their other quality competition put up 300 or more yards in total offense.
Passing Context
It’s looking like the high on game day is going to be 33 and the low will settle round 23. Throw in the South Bend effect and it’s going to feel pretty miserable out there. Factor that into the rest of this preview.
The Hoosier’s offense averaged 265 passing yards per game during the regular season. Their passing production was strong to start off but got sporadic through the back half. Indiana passed for 124 yards in their +14 win over Washington and only 68 yards in the Ohio State loss. They also had a season low of 18 passing attempts in that loss as well as 19 attempts in the Washington win. Indiana completed a season low 44% of its passing attempts against Ohio State and the second worst was 60% in the Michigan game.
Rushing Context
Indiana’s offense averaged around 174 rushing yards per game in 2024. They hit a season high of 323 yards in the Western Illinois blowout and a season low of 40 yards on the ground against Michigan. They did a little better with 83 rushing yards in the Ohio State game.
They made 41 rush attempts against the Buckeyes, which is on the higher end for this year’s team. But they only logged 28 rush attempts in the Michigan matchup.
Scoring Context
While Indiana’s rushing attack was secondary in terms of yardage it was the Hoosier’s main way of scoring during the regular season. They averaged 2.6 passing touchdowns per game, compared with 3.1 rushing touchdowns per game. That translates to a total of 37 rushing touchdowns and 31 passing touchdowns by seasons end.
On the rushing side, the outliers were seven touchdowns against Western Illinois, six against Charlotte and five against Nebraska.
Indiana logged zero rushing touchdowns against Michigan but they grabbed two passing touchdowns. They had zero passing touchdowns against Ohio State but claimed two rushing touchdowns.
Defensive Context
To be honest, I don’t know what to make of Indiana’s defense coming into this CFP game. They proved to be stingy against most opponents but the Hoosier’s strength of schedule is blowing anyone away. Ohio State is their marquee opponent by a wide stretch and the let the Buckeyes tally up 316 yards of total offense and 38 points.
Roster Details
Running Backs
Five of the seven Indiana running backs with in-game production during 2024 were transfers. Wake Forest transfer Justice Ellison led the group with 895 yards from scrimmage, 5.6 yards per play and 10 total touchdowns. James Madison transfer Ty Son Lawton had similar efficiency but had 748 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns.
Tight Ends
Two of the Hoosiers’ three active tight ends are transfers. Zach Horton, senior transfer from James Madison, finished the season with 182 yards, 9.1 yards per play and four total touchdowns.
Wide Receivers
60% of Indiana wide receivers who saw action in 2024 were transfers. James Madison transfer Elijah Sarratt led the group with 890 yards, 18.2 yards per play and eight total touchdowns. Sophomore Omar Cooper Jr. was #2 with 594 yards from scrimmage, 20.5 yards per play and seven touchdowns.
Final Thoughts
This should be a test that the Irish can get through on their CFP quest.
2024 was undeniably the best season in Indiana football history. They played a full Big Ten schedule and only dropped one loss to Ohio State. But the B1G is up to 18 teams now and the Buckeyes are the only team Indiana has beat that’s even remotely in the CFP picture. Michigan was their second strongest opponent and they finished 7-5 overall but 5-4 in conference play. And those two matchups came when the season was almost over. There are still a lot of questions left about how good Indiana will be against a talented and tested opponent like Notre Dame that we just won’t be able to answer until they get into it.
Add in that passing the football is an important part of the Hoosier’s offense. Both teams are from Indiana but there are reasons that neither of them have played in-state football this late into winter during the modern age. But if one team is poised to find a way to victory without throwing the ball: it’s Notre Dame.
And there’s too much going right with this program for me to put anything other than positive energy out into the world. Also sending a lot of prayers up for the brave souls who are going to try and tough out the game in-person. Wear layers kids, frostbite doesn’t age discriminate.
Cheers and Go Irish!!