The data story going into Notre Dame’s Semifinal matchup with Penn State.
Notre Dame is playing a historical 15th game this season and the next opponent up is Penn State. The two program will be meeting each other for the Orange Bowl down in Miami, which is acting as a site for the 2024 College Playoff Semifinals.
So let’s see what we can gleam about the Nittany Lions from the data going into the game.
Season Summary
Penn State’s current overall record is 13-2 and their conference record is 8-1. Their average point differential across all their games is around +17 and their worst losses were -7 and -8. Penn State’s first loss of the season was to Ohio State. The Buckeyes beat them 20-13. Their second loss was in the Big Ten Championship game when Oregon dropped them 45-37.
Some other close calls that Penn State faced in the regular season were a +7 (34-27) win over Bowling Green, a +3 (33-30) win over USC and a +1 (26-25) win over Minnesota. It’s not the cleanest of records but in Playoff games they are +28 against SMU and +17 against Boise State.
Outcome Factors
Offensive Efficiency
Penn State is averaging around 7 yards per offensive play. They hit efficiency highs against Kent State and Purdue but found lows in the Ohio State, Maryland and SMU games. The Nittany Lions’ offensive efficiency was 5.1 yards in the Ohio State game and 7 yards in the Oregon game.
Passing Production
The Penn State offense is averaging 234 yards of passing offense through 14 games. They hit highs against Kent State, USC and Penn State but found lows in the Illinois, Ohio State, SMU and Boise State games. They were on the lower end of passing production in the Oregon and Ohio State losses.
Their utilization of the pass game has varied throughout the season but they’ve been trending downwards in terms of accuracy. They hit a floor of 51.3% passes completed in the Oregon loss, and went 56% against SMU and 52% against Boise State.
Rushing Production
The Nittany Lions are averaging 202 rushing yards per game, compared with their 234 yards through the air. That average is slightly inflated by the Kent State, USC and Purdue games. But Penn State only rushed for 135 yards against Illinois and 150 yards against Ohio State. Their Playoff games have also been on the low side in terms of rushing production. They recorded 136 yards on the ground in Round 1 against SMU and 171 yards in Round 2 against Boise State.
Turnovers
Turnovers aren’t an area that Penn State has struggled in during the 2024 season. They gave the ball up three times in the 33-30 loss to USC and then turned it over twice in the Oregon game. All of the turnovers in both of those games were interceptions.
Game Details
Touchdowns
The Nittany Lions are almost evenly split in passing-rushing touchdowns. They’ve got 32 rushing touchdowns and 30 passing touchdowns going into this Semifinal game. Rushing has been the most consistent way that they earn touchdowns, though.
Production
Penn State leaned the most heavily on the passing attack in the USC and Oregon games but got very different results for their efforts. They had 44 pass attempts against USC and completed 31 for a 70.5% completion rate. They took 39 shots through the air in the Big Ten Championship. But they only completed 20 of them for a season low, 51.3% completion rate. Despite that, Penn State finished the Oregon game with a season high 466 yards of total offense.
In their last three games, Penn State has had 39 rush attempts (Oregon), 40 rush attempts (SMU) and 41 rush attempts (Boise State). They hit an efficiency high for the season in the Big Ten Championship and averaged 8.3 yards per carry. But they were at 4.7 yards and 5.3 yard in the SMU and Boise State matchups, respectively.
Roster Details
Wide Receivers
Junior Harrison Wallace III is the Nittany Lions’ leading wide receiver, from a stats perspective. He has 723 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns. Fellow junior Omari Evans is the #2 with 416 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns.
Tight Ends
Senior Tyler Warren is Penn State’s leading tight end and a major offensive weapon. He’s recorded 1,355 yards from scrimmage, is averaging 11.1 yards per play and has 12 total touchdowns to his name.
Running Backs
Penn State has two running backs who’ve made size-able contributions to the offense. Junior Nicholas Singleton has the slight edge with 1,357 yards from scrimmage, 6.9 yards per play and 14 touchdowns. Fellow junior Kaytron Allen has logged 1,173 yards from scrimmage, 5.4 yards per play and 10 touchdowns.
Final Thoughts
Notre Dame will be facing off against a formidable opponent in Penn State. In my opinion, they’re the strongest of the Big Ten representatives at this point and have faced a wide range of teams, in terms of both competition level and tendencies. They’ve shown some weaknesses along the way but that’s to be expected when your schedule look the way their’s has.
And I think that’s what makes this the most interesting of the Semifinal matchups. Penn State and Notre Dame definitely didn’t start the seasons as favorites to go this far but they’ve done what they needed to do given the schedule cards they were dealt and are have held it together the best.
I’ve got to give the edge to the Irish, though. I comfortably put this year’s Notre Dame squad at the same level as Ohio State and Oregon, teams who both dealt the Nittany Lions defeats. From a stats perspective, they played up to those two opponents’ levels. They got decisive wins in Rounds 1 and 2 but the detailed stats weren’t especially impressive. If they ramp things back up, it’ll be a very competitive game for the Irish. But with two weeks of having faced lesser challenges I don’t know if they’ll be able to turn the heat up enough to knock off this extremely talented, deep and motivated Notre Dame team.
Cheers and Go Irish!!