The 4-2 Badgers have put up a combined 94 points in their last two games, but the Wildcats have a history of playing Wisconsin close.
The Wisconsin game was the flashpoint of Northwestern’s season in 2023. The ‘Cats came into Madison as 12-point underdogs and sporting a 4-5 record after a loss to Iowa at Wrigley. Four quarters later, Northwestern was a win away from a bowl game after a 24-10 smackdown in Camp Randall. It was unequivocally the signature win of the ‘Cats surprise 8-5 season.
A year later, the game has a similar weight to it. Martin Stadium appears to be impervious to the fall, but the season is getting late quickly for the 3-3 Wildcats. To reach a bowl game, Northwestern will need to win at least two of its matchups against Wisconsin, Iowa, No. 24 Michigan and No. 22 Illinois, in addition to beating Purdue in East Lafayette. A loss against Wisconsin makes the way forward all that much murkier.
The Badgers will arrive in Evanston as one of the hottest teams in the country after outscoring Purdue and Rutgers by a combined score of 94-13 over the last two weeks, but there is a path to victory here.
Why Northwestern will beat Wisconsin
Northwestern’s rushing attack against a shaky Badger run defense
Wisconsin has given up just 13 points in its last two games, but the run defense has remained a legitimate weak point. The Badgers rank 13th in the Big Ten in rushing yards allowed per game while facing just one top-50 rushing attack in its first six games (surprisingly it’s Rutgers, not Alabama).
If Northwestern wins this football game, it will be because of the ground game. The NU offensive line is trending upwards after a brutal showing in Seattle and is experiencing some continuity for the first time in the season with three straight weeks of relative health. Jack Lausch is using his legs to extend plays more and more often. Cam Porter is a week healthier and Joseph Himon’s role in the backfield is expanding, as is Zach Lujan’s trust in sophomore Caleb Komolafe.
The Badgers pass defense is among the best in the country, and Northwestern must establish a solid presence on the ground in order to avoid another nightmare scenario like Washington where Lausch at times had to work through his progressions with eight Husky defensive backs lurking in the secondary. If the ‘Cats can get Porter and Co. rolling against a less-than-elite Wisconsin front seven, the playbook will open up for the offense.
A budding Jack Lausch-Bryce Kirtz connection
Lausch appeared to be a big AJ Henning guy in his first two starts in purple. Kirtz was a clear second fiddle to number eight after a hot start to the season, catching only four passes for 21 yards against Eastern Illinois and Washington to Henning’s 12 for 158. However, the more recent Maryland and Indiana games were promising deviations from the early trend.
Kirtz caught three passes against the Terrapins good 123 yards. That came after 10 catches for 128 yards at home vs. the Hoosiers, but it’s the deep balls from last week that bode especially well. Lausch is steadily growing more comfortable in the Lujan system, and that’s manifesting itself in some more aggressive shots downfield. If Lausch can connect with Kirtz on a deep ball or two on Saturday — while continuing to take care of the football — Northwestern could steal another “W” from the Badgers.
Why Northwestern won’t beat Wisconsin
Big plays in the Wisconsin passing game
The Wisconsin passing offense has been dangerously explosive with Braedyn Locke under center. The sophomore quarterback has connected on three touchdown passes of 50 yards or more since assuming the starting job after Tyler van Dyke went down against Alabama. A big part of his success in the deep passing game is the emergence of junior wideout Vinny Anthony as one of the premier deep threats in the country. Anthony leads the country in yards per catch among wideouts with 10 or more receptions with 26.1 and is responsible for two of Locke’s three big play touchdowns.
A young — and injured — Northwestern secondary must keep the game in front of them to win on Saturday. Theran Johnson has leveled up mightily since a poor showing in Seattle, but the ‘Cats will be hard pressed to defend the deep ball if Devin Turner doesn’t suit up. Damon Walters could be the guy to pick up the slack. The redshirt freshman popped against Maryland, racking up an interception and a fumble recovery in the blowout victory, but Northwestern will require a similarly strong performance from its underclassmen defensive backs in order to reel in a wagon of a Wisconsin offense.
A stellar Badger offensive line
The ‘Cats defensive line has arguably been Northwestern’s best unit so far this season. The NU run defense ranks as the 9th best in the country from a yards-per-game perspective, and pressure generated by Wildcat big men was key in the four turnovers created against Maryland. However, the ‘Cats did not fare as well defensively against Indiana and Washington, the two best offenses they’ve faced. Washington ran for 144 yards in the 24-5 disaster-class in Seattle, and the Hoosier o-line moved the Northwestern front seven to the tune of 149 yards on the ground. The vaunted ‘Cats defensive line also did not register a sack in the Indiana loss.
Wisconsin boasts perhaps the best offensive line that Northwestern has faced thus far. The Badgers have allowed less than a sack per game, and the Wisconsin rushing offense averages almost 200 yards per game, good for 30th in the country and 4th in the Big Ten. Tawee Walker is also an actual weapon in the backfield. Walker was the Badger offense against Rutgers, lighting up the Scarlet Knights with 198 yards and three touchdowns himself. The ‘Cats must keep Walker and Co. under control if they hope to stay competitive Saturday.