The ‘Cats have a tough one this weekend on the West Coast.
Fresh off Jack Lausch’s game of two halves against Eastern Illinois, the ‘Cats are traveling this week to take on Washington in Seattle, their first road test of the season. NU is hoping to build upon an up-and-down three non-conference contests in a game that will be a much more significant test for Lausch and Co that its duel with the Panthers. Washington is not the same team that played for a national title less than a calendar year ago, but it’s still a formidable conference opponent that should make it tough for the ‘Cats to find a win. Here’s a look at how Northwestern can pull off the upset, and how it comes up short:
Why Northwestern will beat Washington
Turnovers
Northwestern’s defense has been dominant through three games of play, especially in the running game where it’s allowing just 57.7 yards per contest. The ‘Cats just haven’t let anyone establish the run. Washington will be a different beast, though. The Huskies are averaging 171.7 yards rushing, good enough for eighth in the conference (take note that eighth means you are in the top half of teams now). Although it is allowing 214.7 yards per game, the Wildcat pass coverage has felt pretty solid as well. However, Washington is fourth in the Big Ten in passing yards per game with 306.7.
While the Huskies offense isn’t what it was with Michael Penix Jr., it’s still the best Northwestern has encountered thus far. And make no mistake, if the ‘Cats are going to win this game in a hostile environment on the road against a better team, they need the defense to do the winning. Northwestern’s best shot to come out of this weekend 3-1 is if Lausch does just enough and the defense balls out. So, if the Huskies are able to move the ball a little easier than other teams have against this unit, then it’s going to need to force turnovers.
NU has four picks in three games this season, good enough to tie for fourth in the conference. Washington only has two. It’s early, but if NU is actually the better team at forcing turnovers, then that gives them a path on Saturday.
A.J. Henning
At a certain point, Lausch and the offense are going to have to put points on the board in this one. Northwestern can’t rely on the defense to pitch a borderline shutout against an offense like this. Unfortunately, it’s going to be a tall order. We can be as excited about Lausch as we want after his first win, but it’s important to face facts. Lausch has one career college start, and it was at home against an FCS school. This is Washington on the road.
It stands to reason that Northwestern could use a few explosive plays in this one assuming Lausch struggles a bit more to put up sustained drives. Enter A.J. Henning. He was billed as an explosive player when he came to Evanston prior to last year, and while there have been flashes, Saturday was his best game in purple. He racked up 117 yards on seven receptions and tacked on a score in the win.
It’s early, but if the Lausch to Henning connection becomes a consistent thing for the ‘Cats, that’s a big boon for this offense. Another dominant performance from No. 8 would be enormous for the Wildcats as they try to produce enough to hang around in this one.
Why Northwestern won’t beat Washington
The secondary doesn’t hold up
As previously mentioned, Northwestern’s run defense is something special this year. It’s also wreaking havoc pressuring the quarterback with nine sacks through three games so far. In those two phases, it’s done enough already to expect it to hold up against Washington. The secondary feels like the weak point if one has to be chosen. Allowing 214.7 yards per game isn’t completely brutal, but again, this is a tier of opponent Northwestern hasn’t seen this season.
And Washington appears to still be more than capable in the passing game. Quarterback Will Rogers has already thrown for 825 yards on the season with six touchdowns and zero interceptions. He has a crazy-efficient 77.1% completion percentage so far as well. He’s been humming, and if Northwestern’s secondary shows any signs of weakness, it’s going to be the first thing Washington is able to exploit.
The strengths and weaknesses just don’t line up well here for the defense, and it’s something Northwestern fans should be concerned about. The ‘Cats are likely to lose if it turns into a shoot-out.
Cam Porter fails to rush for 100 yards
This is a high, and totally unfair bar, but it’s going to be necessary. Northwestern needs to keep the ball out of Rogers’ hands for as long as possible, and it can only do so if Porter builds on what has been a successful start to the season. He’s averaging 78 yards per game through three weeks on an impressive 5.3 yards per carry.
The game script Northwestern wants is simple. Bank on the run defense, hope the secondary holds up, force turnovers and pound the rock. That last part is crucial, because otherwise the previous steps feel less likely. The ‘Cats need the defense to be fresh and flying around, and it won’t be if Lausch is behind the sticks and leading short drives. Porter needs to take the pressure off of his young quarterback and carry the load.
If he’s on his game and puts up a big day, Northwestern has a chance to pull this off. If he doesn’t, Washington might just be too much for the Wildcats to handle, especially at this point in the season with Lausch in start number two. Here’s to hoping offensive coordinator Zach Lujan puts both his quarterback and his running back in positions to succeed — not overly relying on his young passer and trusting his veteran rusher to get the job done.