The ‘Cats desperately need to rebound after consecutive blowout losses.
After a 40-14 loss against Iowa last weekend, Northwestern will head to West Lafayette to face Purdue. With only four games left on the schedule and the ‘Cats requiring three wins to secure bowl eligibility, this is a must-win game for Northwestern to keep its fleeting hopes alive. There’s little optimism with teams including Ohio State and Michigan on the docket, but a win on Saturday would make matters the slightest bit easier.
While Northwestern has struggled this season, Purdue hasn’t had it easy either. The Boilermakers sit at the bottom of the Big Ten, standing at 1-6 with no conference wins thus far. Coming off a bye week, this game presents Purdue with its best opportunity for a conference victory so far, as Northwestern is certainly the weakest conference team the Boilermakers have faced.
Given Purdue’s record, this should be a very winnable game for Northwestern on the road. Purdue’s defense is among the worst in the country, and should give Jack Lausch and the NU offense an opportunity to bounce back after combining for only 17 points in the past two games. However, these offensive struggles may persist and all but eliminate the ‘Cats from bowl contention with a loss.
Here are some reasons why Northwestern will notch a victory against the Boilermakers, and why the ‘Cats will fall short once again.
Why Northwestern will beat Purdue
Purdue’s atrociously bad defense
This unit is a massive reason why Purdue is at the bottom of the conference and has had so much trouble winning games. Purdue’s defense has been one of the worst in all of college football this year, conceding an average of over 450 yards per game and 38 points per game. That first number is significantly higher than both of Northwestern’s last two opponents, Wisconsin and Iowa, who both allow slightly over 300 yards per game.
Considering how much Jack Lausch and the run game struggled in those two matchups, they should have an easier time against the Boilermakers. Bryce Kirtz’s likely return is also a boon for the ‘Cats, giving Lausch a target he badly missed last week. Lausch will likely still find difficulties, but he’ll certainly face less pressure and have more time to get the ball out against this defense.
Purdue’s struggle exists in the air and on the ground, so expect a strong Northwestern run game here in this matchup as well. Cam Porter and Joseph Himon were stymied over the past two games, and should see some more open space against the Boilermakers defense. Injuries on Northwestern’s offensive line could complicate this a little bit, but any improvements on the ground would be a positive for a team in desparate need of an offensive spark. That should come in some form against Purdue, whether it’s minimal or massive will be determinative in Northwestern’s chances of snatching a victory.
Northwestern’s secondary
Yes, this was on the list last week, but the secondary continued its strong performance against Iowa to warrant its place here. The ‘Cats only allowed 152 yards in the air last week, with all of Iowa’s four touchdowns coming on the ground via Kaleb Johnson and Brendan Sullivan. It is important to note that Iowa averages below 150 passing yards per game, but the secondary’s performance has been fairly consistent among a number of weeks now.
Northwestern might have a difficult time stopping Purdue on the ground, so making the air raid ineffective will undoubtedly help limit scoring opportunities for the Boilermakers. This game might turn into a battle of which defense holds first, and considering that Northwestern’s defense is vastly superior to Purdue’s, the secondary could play a big part in delivering a victory.
Why Northwestern won’t beat Purdue
Northwestern’s passing game
Northwestern’s offense and Purdue’s defense are two of the worst units on their respective sides of the ball, and will face each other this weekend in West Lafayette. While a bad defensive opposition bodes well for the ‘Cats, this offense has been so inefficient that the quality of defense might not do anything to help Jack Lausch & Co. Last week, Lausch only completed 10 of 19 passes for 62 yards and two interceptions, an even smaller yards total than the 82 he had against Wisconsin.
Lausch is really struggling to get the ball out and find his receivers, making Northwestern’s passing game nearly nonexistent. With a completion percentage for the season just over 50%, there hasn’t been substantial progress displayed by the redshirt sophomore throughout his time as the starter. This will be a game where Lausch needs to step up and hit his receivers, which he has proven can be done against subpar defenses.
Against Maryland, Lausch threw for 203 yards and notched a rushing touchdown, with his efforts helping lead the ‘Cats to a command 37-10 victory. If he performs anywhere close to those numbers on Saturday, Northwestern should at least have a decent shot at winning this game. If Lausch can’t step up here and continues playing the way he has these past two weeks, another quarterback change may be in short order for David Braun and Zach Lujan with the season all but over.
Purdue’s Two-Headed Backfield
Mockobee and Love are a strong running back duo, combining for over 800 yards in Purdue’s seven games. This total isn’t staggering, but still fairly strong considering that Purdue has played fewer games than most other Big Ten teams after having its second bye last week. When Mockobee faced Northwestern last year, he only rushed for 54 yards and a touchdown, but he could do much more damage this time. Him and Love are both very capable of pouncing on Northwestern’s vulnerabilities up front, which showed against Kaleb Johnson and Iowa last week.
Northwestern’s defense has remained consistent, but Mockobee and Love together could prove troublesome. Kaleb Johnson is certainly a more prolific runner than anyone on the Boilermakers, but Mockobee and Love are both backs with versatility and skill that could cause headaches for NU’s front seven. It’s unlikely that Purdue can win this game by relying solely on its aerial attack, so the ground game is gonna need to step up and deliver. There’s reasonable expectation to do believe that they could do so, and give the Boilermakers an offensive spark to overcome NU’s defense.