“The Miracle at Wrigley” – 2024
The lake slate is over, as Northwestern will play its final two home games at Wrigley Field, the site of last year’s crushing, fate-sealing loss against Iowa. The first of those two games is tomorrow against big, bad No. 2 Ohio State. This feels like more of a tune-up game for the Buckeyes, as they begin an important final stretch with subsequent contests against No. 5 Indiana and arch-rival Michigan. For the ‘Cats, well, it’s going to be a tough one as they look to secure enough wins (5 or 6, we’ll see) to participate in a bowl game. Here’s how Northwestern pulls of a miracle, and why Ohio State will probably roll:
Why Northwestern will beat Ohio State:
Uhhhhh….
Well…..
Hmmmm.
I mean, it’s possible, right? Crazier things have happened. This is sports after all.
Chaos at Wrigley:
A pop up rain storm pummels the Friendly Confines as Will Howard drops back, gripping the wettest football he’s ever tried to throw. Wind is whipping around the stadium in all different directions and extra points are flying everywhere. It’s the second quarter, and the ‘Cats have kept themselves in a tie football game through a ferocious rushing attack. Jack Lausch has hardly thrown the ball all day. Howard rolls right with thousands of fans screaming into the mist. Then, he promptly throws a horrific pick six. And then another in the second half.
Can students storm the field at Wrigley? I doubt it. But they’d certainly try if everything went perfectly. In all seriousness, what we’re discussing here is the perfect game script. Basically, Northwestern needs some sort of extenuating circumstances to have a chance. Then, it needs to control time of possession, make Howard uncomfortable in the pocket and force at least two turnovers, probably more.
It’s a lot to ask, and it’s probably not fair, but we’re banking on a miracle here. The truth is, if Northwestern kept this game competitive, that’s a win going forward. It would vastly increase confidence in the ‘Cats’ ability to get wins against Michigan and Illinois. Currently, that confidence doesn’t exist.
Jack Lausch legacy game:
In football, everything always starts with your quarterback. For Northwestern, Lausch has had a difficult first season as a starter, showcasing flashes at times but struggling mightily at others. On the season, the sophomore signal caller has thrown for 1,120 yards on a 53.6% completion rate with a touchdown to interception ratio of 5-4. Yeesh.
But Lausch has a secret (not-so-secret) weapon in his legs. Maybe he activates that to a level we haven’t seen before and gives NU a dynamic rushing attack along with Cam Porter. Maybe he takes it upon himself to keep this game competitive, playing fearless football. Maybe it starts on the ground, he gets some swagger back, and then he starts hitting guys on deep balls.
None of that is likely against Ohio State of all teams. This will be Lausch’s most difficult test of his career by far, and the hope is that he doesn’t completely back down. Losing, though, is not close to the nail in the coffin for Lausch’s starting prospects next season. It’s simply too much of a longshot.
Why Northwestern won’t beat Ohio State
Because it’s freakin’ Ohio State:
The Buckeyes score 38.6 points per game and give up 10.7. Their one loss came at the hands of a fellow elite member of the conference in No. 1 Oregon. This is a legit national title contender the ‘Cats are matching up with here, the first they’ve encountered thus far.
Ohio State’s defense gives up the fewest yards per game in the conference at 250.8. Its rushing defense allows just 95.2 yards per game while its secondary allows just 155.6 yards per game. We already discussed the ideal game script, and it’s going to be supremely difficult to execute against a unit this good. It might be truly impossible. Even if somehow they execute to a tee, this defense has the playmakers to force a key turnover and win anyway.
Offensively, the Buckeyes muster a measly 454.9 yards per game, a pedestrian number really. It’s second in the Big Ten to Oregon, so at least this isn’t the most prolific offense in the conference by the numbers. It’s certainly close, though.
To conclude, the Buckeyes are effective at defending the pass, defending the run, throwing the football and running the football. Sounds like a recipe for success.
Lausch and Braun’s Execution:
Let’s again entertain that wild possibility that Northwestern is in this one towards the end of the game. Then, quarterback decision-making and head coach game management matter much more. And these two haven’t given us any reason to be confident as of late.
For Lausch, if this game is a blowout, then his numbers and performance feel largely meaningless. It’s Ohio State. Go get ready to challenge a weaker (comparably) Michigan squad on the road. If it’s close somehow, though, he’ll have an opportunity to navigate the ‘Cats to the win of their lives.
Braun can be judged in a blowout, only if he lets it get that way with passive decision making. If Northwestern kicks any field goal tomorrow in a situation that’s 4th and four or less, then Braun is making a mistake. Be aggressive. You have absolutely nothing to lose except a game you’ll probably lose anyway.
Braun has a lot to prove to Northwestern fans this year, and he doesn’t have to win this game to start rewriting the script. Just be smart, and don’t back down. That’s all anyone is asking for.