The ‘Cats will look to keep their bowl hopes alive this Saturday.
We’re officially in the home stretch of the 2024 season, and the stakes have never been higher for Northwestern. After losing to No. 2 Ohio State at Wrigley Field, NU has dropped to 4-6 on the season. With just two games remaining, the ‘Cats will have to win out if they want to guarantee themselves a bowl game come December.
Northwestern will have a chance to earn the first of those victories this Saturday when it heads up to Ann Arbor to face the defending national champions, the Michigan Wolverines. Though Michigan enjoyed major success over the last few years, its first season in the post-Jim Harbaugh era has been less than ideal.
After being ranked in the top 10 to start the year, the Wolverines have slipped to 5-5, including a 3-4 conference record. Winning this game will likely be their best shot at securing a bowl game as well, as they head to Columbus next week to take on the Buckeyes. With postseason implications for both teams, it’s bound to be a hard-fought duel.
Here are some reasons the ‘Cats will pull off the upset in Ann Arbor, as well as some reasons the Wolverines will prevail.
Why Northwestern will beat Michigan
Lausch’s inspiring play against the Buckeyes continues
NU’s offense may have only mustered seven points in the loss to Ohio State, but Jack Lausch played some of his best ball against the toughest defense he’s had to face in his young career. He threw 21-of-35 for 201 yards, including an eight-yard run for the team’s only score of the day.
While that doesn’t look fantastic on its own, Lausch looked immensely more confident in his abilities at Wrigley Field. He was able to connect with his receivers on several deep balls, something he struggled with immensely in past weeks. Additionally, he moved the ball around to several different receivers, with a now-healthy Bryce Kirtz, A.J. Henning, Calvin Johnson II and Marshall Lang all getting involved at different points.
Despite the loss, Lausch’s growth was evident and inspiring for the team. If he can continue spreading the ball around the field and making big plays through the air, the ‘Cats could be poised for big things at the Big House.
Michigan’s putrid passing offense
For as much criticism as Northwestern’s passing offense has received this season, Michigan has arguably had a worse go of things through the air. The Wolverines rank dead last among Power Four conference teams in passing yards per game at 134.6, and their 10 passing touchdowns rank higher than only Iowa and Northwestern in the Big Ten.
Starting quarterback Davis Warren ranks second-to-last in the conference with 144.8 passing yards per game, with Cade McNamara the only Big Ten quarterback with fewer. He’s only thrown five touchdowns as opposed to his six interceptions, and his subpar play is a large reason why the Wolverines only average 20.4 points per game.
Michigan’s offense has been nearly lifeless this season, and it will hinge on the Northwestern secondary to ensure it remains that way on Saturday. Guys like Coco Azema, Devin Turner and Theran Johnson (if he plays) will need to be at their best and disrupt the Wolverines’ pass attack in order for the ‘Cats to be able to sniff victory.
Why Northwestern won’t beat Michigan
Michigan’s daunting front seven
Michigan’s defense has not been stellar this season, and its secondary has certainly taken a hit since standout cornerback Will Johnson was sidelined with a toe injury in October. However, one area Michigan has continued to excel is on its front seven, headlined by two players who can pose a real threat to Lausch in the pocket.
Mason Graham has been one of the best defensive linemen in college football this season. He has recorded 3.5 sacks and 37 tackles so far, and his ability to break through offensive lines even when he’s being double teamed is matched by few others in the sport. Projected by many to be an early first round NFL draft pick, Graham can cause some serious problems for NU’s offensive line.
Kenneth Grant has recorded 25 tackles and two sacks on the year, and just like Graham, he is also a projected first round pick in the 2025 NFL draft. Graham and Grant are perfect complements to each other, and they tend to wreak absolute havoc on the teams they play.
Northwestern’s offensive line has been solid throughout most of this season, but the duo of Graham and Grant may be its toughest test to date. If the ‘Cats don’t prepare an effective game plan or fail to adapt accordingly during the game, it could be a long afternoon.
The Big House environment
While the ‘Cats are certainly capable of pulling off an upset, that possibility is greatly decreased by the fact that they are playing in one of the most hostile road environments in all of college sports. With a capacity of 107,601, Michigan Stadium stands as the largest arena in college football. That is a pretty significant increase from NU’s temporary stadium, which can fit just 15,000 fans.
The noise level in the stadium will likely be louder than that of any other place the ‘Cats have competed in this year, and teams much more talented than Northwestern have been rattled by the environment inside the Big House. With a quarterback still trying to figure things out and facing a team desperate for a win before it faces its archrival, the atmosphere could very well be too much for Northwestern.