NU’s matchup this weekend is difficult to predict.
Northwestern travels to the East Coast this weekend to take on a 3-2 Maryland team in College Park as the ‘Cats look to get back to .500. Quarterback Jack Lausch did some encouraging things last week, but a surging Indiana team proved to be too much for NU to handle. It needs to get back on track as bowl hopes continue to look less and less likely. Here’s a look at what needs to go right for the ‘Cats to win, and what could sink them against the Terps.
Why Northwestern will beat Maryland:
Maryland’s defense
Maryland’s defense has been decidedly not good through five games, allowing the third most total yards per game in the conference with 381. It defends the run slightly better than it does the pass, which theoretically doesn’t favor the ‘Cats, but it’s in the bottom half of the conference in both. Also, Lausch did look better through the air against the Hoosiers when he threw for 243 yards and two touchdowns with no picks.
Lausch seemed to finally form a connection with top wideout Bryce Kirtz in that game too. The fifth-year racked up 10 catches for 128 yards. A.J. Henning was also effective with six receptions that went for 67 yards and two scores. It was a weird reversal for Northwestern as the passing offense looked much crisper than the rushing attack which combined for only 93 total rushing yards.
Northwestern’s offense is decidedly difficult to predict, but it could find a way to win in multiple ways against this struggling Maryland defense. Ideally, Lausch just comes to play again and is capable of leading the team to victory. If that doesn’t happen and Lausch is just ok, a bounce-back performance from Cam Porter and the running game would do the trick. Maryland could easily win this game despite its defensive struggles (it’s won three games with this unit already), but in a conference with many elite defenses, it’s nice for the ‘Cats to draw a weaker one this Friday.
Xander Mueller
Northwestern’s defense needs to regroup. Last week’s 41-point showing was not good enough for a unit that looked primed to carry the team early in the season. Without a good defense, this team is in real trouble, so it needs to see a bounce back performance in College Park. I was tempted to write down David Braun for this one, but something tells me these struggles aren’t about his scheme. We’ve watched Braun field a good defensive team pretty much for his entire tenure as head coach up until now.
So, I’m looking at Xander Mueller, arguably Northwestern’s best player and the leader of the defense. Northwestern needs its players to have come together this week in practice and to have decided that the defensive showing last weekend simply was not good enough for the team to win. Sitting 15th in the conference with 254.2 passing yards per game allowed is not ideal.
Player leadership feels important at this moment. Everyone needs to be bought in, and it feels like a spot where younger players could easily lose their energy as the season starts to slip away. But if this defense rallies around older players like Mueller looking to get one last shot at a bowl, maybe, just maybe, this thing figures itself out.
Why Northwestern won’t beat Maryland
Jack Lausch on the road
It feels wrong to be critical of Lausch after last week’s performance, but there are a couple things that are true. First, Lausch was not accurate. On 38 attempts, he threw for just 23 completions. Not great. Due to this, his QBR on the day was a measly 63.4, certainly not horrific, but also not great. Then, you think back to Lausch’s last performance away from the lakefront. Not great.
I’m not sold that Lausch is the guy just yet, and there’s probably an unfair amount of pressure on the young signal caller’s shoulders just three starts into his career. Unfortunately, the ‘Cats need him to play well to have any chance to win any game. The rest of the offense isn’t dynamic enough to work through bad QB play.
Lausch might come out and look good. That could easily happen. But if he doesn’t, it’s going to prove to be too much for Northwestern to overcome, and it’s going to be a long evening. NU needs Lausch to play well, probably even better than he did against Indiana, in order to come home with a win.
Billy Edwards Jr.
On the other side of the quarterback battle is a guy who has somewhat quietly been putting together a fantastic season. Edwards Jr. has thrown for 1,444 yards with 11 touchdowns and two picks. His completion percentage for the season is currently 72.3 percent. For context, Lausch’s is 53.1%, so it’s a big difference.
Edwards Jr. has led a dynamic Maryland passing attack that ranks second in the conference with 304.8 yards per game trailing only, you guessed it, Indiana. This means Maryland’s offense has arguably been better than offenses like Oregon and Washington, both of which have premier talent on the offensive side of the football.
Meanwhile, Northwestern has a completely diagnosable secondary problem at this point. This is truly a terrible matchup for the ‘Cats, and they’re going to need to see immediate improvement from the secondary to have a chance. If they get more of what we’ve been seeing the past couple games, you can pencil this one in as a loss.