The ‘Cats need this one on the road. Here’s how they pull off the upset.
Northwestern heads to Iowa this weekend for a must-win matchup against the 4-3 Hawkeyes. After a 23-3 trouncing at the hands of Wisconsin last week on the lake, the ‘Cats are running out of winnable games left on the schedule to get to a bowl game. Without this win, a victory against Ohio State or Michigan becomes necessary, which means we’re looking at a pipe dream scenario.
Iowa, meanwhile, is also chasing a bowl sitting at four wins. It’s coming off an uncharacteristic 32-20 loss to Michigan State last week on the road. The Spartans managed to pass for 256 yards and run for 212 against an Iowa defense that, year by year, almost never turns in a performance so putrid.
Admittedly, this is going to be a tough one for the ‘Cats. Assuming Iowa’s defense rebounds, quarterback Jack Lausch is going to have his work cut out for him trying to move the ball down the field. The Hawkeyes took down Northwestern last year in the Wrigley game in a nail biter, but this year Iowa’s offense has improved, and the ‘Cats have taken a step back as a team (it’s time to admit that at this point).
Here’s some analysis on how Northwestern can get this upset done and extend its meaningful season, as well as how they could fail to do so:
Why Northwestern will beat Iowa
Iowa’s defense is at least mediocre
This has a higher chance of happening than you might think. In the Big Ten this season, Iowa ranks 11th in scoring defense, allowing 19.7 per game, putting them one spot behind the ‘Cats. It’s ninth and 13th in rushing and passing defense respectively. That doesn’t sound like a dominant unit, although it’s worth noting that it’s the Big Ten and everyone’s defense is pretty good.
Ranking near Northwestern, and given the Iowa defensive mentality and emphasis, this is still not a defense to take lightly. If they play up to their full potential, Northwestern is going to be in for a world of hurt.
The bottom line is that Lausch hasn’t shown the ability to consistently drive the ball down the field. Last week, it felt like every single time the ‘Cats got that first first down conversion, the series ended in a punt. If the Iowa defense is on its game, it just isn’t likely that Lausch is capable of overcoming it and willing NU to a victory. That’s not a game script Northwestern can sustain.
Instead, Iowa’s defense has to be just fine. We can’t expect it to be nearly as bad as it was last week, but if Lausch is capable of grabbing some timely field goals and pushing the ball in the end zone one time (maybe two if we’re getting greedy), then there’s a chance.
The Northwestern secondary
The back-end hasn’t been the strength of this Northwestern defense so far, but it’s flashed at times. Allowing 246.7 yards per game through the air isn’t ideal, but the good news is, Iowa sports a terrible passing attack. The Hawkeyes average 136.9 yards per game through the air so far in 2024. That’s good for second-to-last in the Big Ten, one slot behind Northwestern.
If the ‘Cats’ secondary can step up on Saturday, then there’s a chance to entirely shut down that part of Iowa’s game. Kaleb Johnson is a beast at running back, more on that later, but forcing him to tote the rock to victory is Northwestern’s best shot. It can’t sustain a good game from Iowa’s weaker point of attack.
This is also a good chance for the secondary to shut some people up. As the season has gone on, rumblings about how they’ve looked in comparison to the rest of the defense have grown in number and volume. This is when they need to put their collective foot down. Lead your team to a must-win victory in enemy territory. That’s what they have the opportunity to pull off on Saturday.
Why Northwestern won’t beat Iowa
Kaleb Johnson
What can I say that hasn’t already been said about this guy? He’s a stud. A ringer. Johnson takes the ball, and Big Ten fans hold their breath. He’s electric out of the backfield. Having accumulated 1,035 yards and 13 touchdowns on 7.8 yards per carry so far this year (read that again to fully comprehend), Johnson is having an absolutely monster season.
Without Ashton Jeanty, he’d be getting a lot more discussion as the most prolific runner in college football. But Jeanty’s historic season has put this guy’s historic season on the back burner a bit. It’s important to note that Johnson is doing this in the Big Ten, which contains some fantastic run defenses.
Frankly, Northwestern can’t expect to neutralize him. The ‘Cats’ run D has been great all year, averaging just 103.4 yards allowed per contest. But this is a completely different beast. If they can keep him to around a 100-yard performance, that would be an amazing showing. If they don’t, Johnson might just run his team to victory Saturday. He’s such a game-wrecker that the rest of this article might not matter if he’s fully on his game.
Cade McNamara protects the ball
Two weeks ago at Maryland, the formula for grabbing a win on the road was forcing turnovers. The ‘Cats did it again last week against Wisconsin, albeit to a very different result. But Northwestern winning the turnover battle should always be a focus with the current construction of the team.
McNamara has four picks thus far in the season, including one last week against Sparty. It all starts with the NU pass rush. If those guys can start getting home for the ‘Cats, maybe McNamara will be uncomfortable and cough the ball up a few times. Northwestern is likely to need those extra possessions.
And field position could be huge. Relying on Lausch to drive the ball all the way down the field, as we’ve mentioned, hasn’t been a winning formula. But giving him the ball on the opponent’s side of the field gives him a good shot to get points. One thing of note, though: the coaching staff must be better in the red zone, goal-to-go and fourth down situations in enemy territory. It has to make better decisions. I spared them from an entire section here, but make no mistake, they’re part of this equation too.
Turnovers give Northwestern a chance to pull off the upset. Without them, more is going to have to go right. Iowa’s coaches should be preaching ball security extra hard this week to McNamara.