The ‘Cats have a tough task at home this week against the No. 23 team in the nation.
Northwestern football is back on Saturday fresh off the bye week and hoping to get back on track after an uninspiring loss against Washington two weeks ago. Jack Lausch will make his third career start as coach David Braun continues to put his trust in the young signal caller. The ‘Cats need him to bounce back after throwing for just 53 yards and two picks against the Huskies. Here’s a look at how NU could beat its upcoming opponent, No. 23 Indiana, and why it might be tough.
Why Northwestern will beat Indiana
Jack Lausch rebounds
It’s still not clear whether Northwestern will have starting running back Cam Porter back on Saturday after he missed last game with a lower-body injury. If he makes his return, then the pressure on Lausch diminishes significantly. Regardless, the ‘Cats need Lausch to be much better if they want a chance to take down this scalding hot Indiana team.
The Hoosiers are not to be taken lightly this season. New head coach Curt Cignetti has turned this roster into a really good Big Ten team that averages 513 yards per game on offense (second in the conference) and gives up 239.6 yards per game on defense (fourth). The Northwestern defense isn’t going to be able to dominate this game, and Lausch is going to have to keep up.
First and foremost, Lausch has to take care of the ball. He can’t have two picks again because Northwestern is playing up-hill in this one and can’t afford to give up extra possessions. He doesn’t have to light the world on fire with his arm, but he needs to keep the ball in the offense’s hands for as long as possible to give this overworked defense a fighter’s chance out there.
If Lausch bounces back, that’s huge for the outlook on the rest of the year, an outlook that currently feels somewhat bleak. It also gives Northwestern a shot to win this game. If he doesn’t, then we might be looking at a long rest of the season in Evanston. At a certain point, you have to have a quarterback. This is football, after all.
NU’s run defense
Northwestern’s defense was noticeably worse against Washington, its first game against a team with a legit passing attack down field. It also gave up 144 yards rushing, not a horrific total but certainly worse than the preceding games in which it dominated up front. Northwestern is still fifth in the conference in rushing yards allowed per game.
Indiana averages 210.6 yards per game on the ground, good enough for fifth in the conference and is easily the most impressive rushing attack NU has seen. But if this defense is in fact as good as it looked in the first three games, then maybe it has a chance to shut down this part of the Hoosier offense.
If the ‘Cats take away the rushing attack, and Lausch limits the amount of time Indiana plays on offense, then maybe they can weather Indiana’s passing storm just enough to get a win. Bottom line, they have to win at something on the defensive side of the ball, and run stopping is their best shot. It’s going to be really difficult to stop quarterback Kurtis Rourke through the air.
Why Northwestern won’t beat Indiana
Kurtis Rourke and a potent passing attack
Indiana averages 302.4 yards per game which is fourth in the Big Ten. Rourke has thrown for 1,372 yards, 11 TDs and just two picks. The Hoosiers have two receivers over the 300-yard mark, and two others with 246 yards and 184 yards. You can’t mess around with this passing offense. It will burn you.
Meanwhile, Northwestern’s secondary is somewhat suspect. It really didn’t look good against Washington. If the ‘Cats were going to have a defensive weakness prior to that game, most people would have bet on the secondary but offered that it had played well enough and has some talented players. Now, it’s obvious. The secondary is the weak point in this defense, giving up 222.8 yards per game (10th in the conference).
This is simply a bad matchup of strengths and weaknesses for NU here on defense. And any time that’s the case, alarm bells should go off. It’s almost certainly not going to shut down this passing attack barring unforeseen circumstances, but it’s going to need to find a way to limit chunk plays. If there are breakdowns in the secondary leading to wide open guys, then you can just about call this one in favor of the Hoosiers.
Play calling
Yes, I know this feels a little harsh, but my goodness did the ‘Cats’ coaches bungle some things in that Washington game. They actually had multiple chances to put points on the board and apply a little bit of pressure on the Huskies. Instead, two drives to the goal line resulted in just three points on a field goal that should never have been kicked.
The field goal came 5:07 into the third quarter down 17-2. They needed a touchdown. Three just flat out was not good enough there in that situation in the second half of the football game. Then, the ‘Cats got down there again and ran three passing plays on the one yard line to one run play and turned the ball over on downs.
Braun’s decision making and offensive coordinator Zach Lujan’s playcalling were rightfully criticized in the wake of the Washington game, and both need to bounce back against Indiana. They have to realize that this Wildcat team needs as many points as it can get whenever it can get them. This is not a high-powered offense, and it’s going to get run out of stadiums if it doesn’t put points on the board. If Lujan calls a similar game and Braun bails on necessary touchdown drives again, Northwestern will likely lose again.