The ‘Cats host the Fighting Illini at Wrigley Field for their final game of the regular season.
It feels like just yesterday we were previewing why Northwestern would or would not beat Miami (OH) in its season opener. And yet, here we are, just about three months later, sitting here as the ‘Cats prepare for their season finale in an enticing rivalry matchup with No. 22 Illinois this Saturday at Wrigley Field.
Last year’s matchup had a little bit different of a feel to it. Northwestern had already clinched a bowl game the week before with a victory over Purdue at Ryan Field, and beating Illinois was more or less just a way to increase the likelihood of a more desirable venue for its postseason matchup. Nonetheless, the ‘Cats prevailed 45-43 in an absolute shootout, taking back the Land of Lincoln Trophy and finishing the regular season at 7-5.
This year, the stakes are a little different. Winning The Hat for a second straight year would be cool and all, but the ‘Cats are playing for more than that this weekend. At 4-7, Northwestern must defeat its ranked in-state rival in order to even be considered for an unlikely spot in a bowl game this December.
Coming off a 50-6 loss from Michigan at the Big House, the ‘Cats have little momentum heading into the weekend. However, Illinois is coming off an upset scare, having edged Rutgers 38-31 last weekend. With one chance to keep its season alive, here are some reasons why Northwestern will come away with the upset, as well as some reasons why it will fall short.
Why Northwestern will beat Illinois
Illinois’ Lackluster Rushing Defense
One area Northwestern could exploit this Saturday is the Illinois rushing defense. This season, the Illini are allowing 153.3 rushing yards per game to opposing defenses, which is the third highest mark in the Big Ten behind Purdue and Wisconsin. In last week’s contest, Rutgers running back Kyle Monangai rushed for 122 yards on 28 carries and was a large reason why the Scarlet Knights nearly came away with a victory.
Illinois does have some nice pieces on its defense, such as linebacker Gabe Jacas who has recorded a trio of forced fumbles so far this season. However, the run defense as a whole is lacking a bit compared to the rest of the team, so the ‘Cats will have to use that to their advantage to come away with a win.
Northwestern will certainly look to Cam Porter to make some waves throughout this game. The senior back from Cincinnati leads the team with 448 rushing yards this season. However, he has largely been a non-factor over the past few games, as he hasn’t averaged over four yards per carry since the victory over Eastern Illinois.
If Porter cannot get going early on, look for Joseph Himon II to get involved. This year, Himon has averaged 5.4 yards per carry against AP Top 25 opponents. He was not very involved against Michigan or Ohio State, but he averaged seven yards per carry against Indiana and had a monster performance against Purdue. If any combination of Porter or Himon gets going against the Illini, Northwestern’s offense could surprise a lot of people.
The Stakes Have Never Been Higher
It doesn’t seem like too insane of a statement to say that Northwestern is playing for far more in this game than Illinois is. At 4-7, if the ‘Cats do not win this week, their season ends at Wrigley Field. The team needs a minimum of five wins to put it in contention for a bowl game, meaning this week is a must-win for David Braun and his squad.
Illinois, on the other hand, does not have nearly as much at stake. Obviously they intend to win and reclaim The Hat from the ‘Cats after losing it last season. Losing to Northwestern also likely bounces the Illini out of the AP Top 25. However, at 8-3 and ranked No. 22, Illinois is not in contention for the Big Ten Championship Game, and the team will almost certainly not play in the College Football Playoff. At this point in the season, Illinois is just looking to end its regular season on a high note, and possibly lock in a better venue for its bowl game.
Now, I recognize that simply having more to play for is not the strongest argument for Northwestern to beat a more talented team. However, given how strong Illinois has looked this season, and how poorly the ‘Cats have performed against ranked opponents, it is not crazy to say that they will need to simply feed off the pressure mounted against them in order to stage an upset. If Northwestern can do just that, it may pull off the unlikely and keep its season alive.
Why Northwestern won’t beat Illinois
Pat Bryant and the Illinois Receiver Room
Northwestern’s defense has often been the bright spot of the team this season, making big-time plays to set the offense up in desirable field position and forcing crucial stops to allow the team to hang in the game with tougher opponents. However, the unit will face one of its tougher tests of the year against Illinois’ strong passing attack.
For Illinois, it all starts with wide receiver Pat Bryant. The senior from Jacksonville, Florida, ranks second in the Big Ten in receiving yards (914), yards per reception (18.3) and yards per game (83.1), all on just 50 receptions on the year. Oh, and he’s also tied for the conference lead with nine receiving touchdowns. Bryant is currently projected as a potential Day-Three pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
The other impact receiver on the Illinois offense is fellow senior Zakhari Franklin. Franklin ranks 21st in the conference (just behind Bryce Kirtz) with 559 receiving yards. This season, he is also averaging 11.6 yards per reception and has recorded a trio of touchdowns.
Quarterback Luke Altmeyer has not recorded a flashy statline this season, but he hardly needs to with Bryant and Franklin at his disposal every game. The duo has wreaked havoc on most of their opponents this season and will look to continue that trend against the ‘Cats. For Northwestern, Theran Johnson and Josh Fussell will try to lock those guys down, but they might not be enough to put a halt to the Illinois passing offense.
Gabe Jacas vs. Northwestern’s Offensive Line
As mentioned earlier, junior linebacker Gabe Jacas has been an absolute monster for Illinois this season. The Florida native ranks fourth in the Big Ten with eight sacks this season and eighth in the conference with 10 tackles for loss. He has also recorded three forced fumbles this year, which is tied for the conference lead. Quite simply, Jacas has been a problem for opposing offenses all year long, and that trend will likely continue at Wrigley Field on Saturday.
The presence of Jacas presents a substantial obstacle for Northwestern’s offensive line, which has been performing pretty poorly over the last few weeks. Last time the ‘Cats played at Wrigley, the unit allowed Jack Lausch to be sacked four times by Ohio State’s defensive line. Last week at Michigan, Lausch was sacked five times. Right now, a player like Jacas is the offensive line’s worst nightmare.
The ‘Cats are almost certainly factoring in Jacas in their game plan for this week, and it’s possible they implement strategies to double team him or find alternative ways to stop him. However, the more resources they put towards stopping Jacas, the less they have to address Illinois’ other playmakers. Given the recent performances by Northwestern’s offensive line against talented teams, another disaster is entirely possible in the season finale.