It’s all about taking care of the football.
It’s get right week in Evanston. Northwestern’s lone 2024 matchup against an FCS opponent comes as a much needed reset after last week’s offensive disaster class against the Blue Devils. Eastern Illinois is a competitive football team for the AA level and should not be overlooked — especially given Northwestern’s history with directional opponents from the state of Illinois — but the ‘Cats are the more talented side here by a wide margin.
Why Northwestern will beat Eastern Illinois
Defense doesn’t slump
When FBS teams drop games to FCS opponents, it’s usually a product of one of two things: turnovers or a lack of effort on defense. While Northwestern has, itself, a bit of a turnover problem in the young season (more on that later), I have the utmost confidence in Braun’s defensive unit, especially against a Panther offense that put up a donut against the Illini two weeks ago.
I expect the Wildcat defense to come out fast and angry on Saturday. EIU is flush with experience on the offensive side of the ball, especially at the quarterback position where Pierce Holley brings five years of college football pedigree. Holley will test the young Northwestern secondary more than one would expect for an FCS quarterback. The Panthers also boast two former Big 12 recruits at wideout and one of the better backs in the Big South in MJ Flowers.
Yet, the ‘Cats should dominate the trenches in this one. Holley was under pressure often against the Illini in Week 1, and he responded with two interceptions and a 50% completion percentage. The NU defensive line looked in control and well conditioned against Duke despite the two quick touchdowns in overtime, and I’m betting that Braun’s signature unit plays with a chip on its shoulder to get back in the win column.
Cam Porter, Cam Porter, Cam Porter
Jack Lausch has garnered a lot of the attention this week, and rightfully so, but the redshirt sophomore should not have to do all that much to get a win in his first career start. That’s because Cam Porter has looked like a runaway semi-truck to start the season. Three years removed from the ACL injury that sidelined him for the entirety of his sophomore season, Porter has appeared a step quicker so far in 2024. He was a one-man offense last Friday, rushing for nearly 100 yards despite iffy play from his offensive line and Mike Wright’s relative inability to push the ball downfield.
I expect Lujan to get the whole running back room rolling early in this one to settle in his young quarterback. EIU returns most of its front seven from last year, but Porter and Co. should still get theirs with ease.
Why Northwestern won’t beat Eastern Illinois
The EIU passing offense
The young Northwestern secondary has played stellar regulation football, and I would argue that the Wildcat offense bears as much of the brunt for the two quick strike touchdowns in overtime against Duke for its inability to stay on the field. The Northwestern defense was just straight up gassed.
However, in the nightmare scenario where Northwestern drops its second matchup against an FCS opponent in three years, it will be because of the Wildcat defensive backs. The Panthers have playmakers in their wide receiver room, and Holley is not afraid to take shots. The NU secondary needs to stay disciplined and avoid big play. Anto Saka and his guys will bring enough pressure to make the fifth year quarterback uncomfortable, but if EIU breaks a big one early, and Northwestern finds itself playing from behind, it could get a touch ugly.
Turnovers
Northwestern will win this game if it doesn’t turn the ball over. If EIU has to drive 60+ yards downfield every time it gets the ball, I would be shocked if the Panthers touch double digits.
Jack Lausch is an obvious question mark at the quarterback position, but he is starting because Braun trusts him to take care of the ball. In his presser on Monday, the Northwestern head coach made it clear that he made the decision to bench Mike Wright because of the fifth year quarterback’s tendency to get reckless.
I don’t envision that Lujan is going to give Lausch a lot of chances to put the ball in danger. It’s going to be a lot of RPOs from the gun and quick, simple reads for the Chicago kid. But if Lausch gets antsy and tries to force things — or if we get another fumble from the running back room — EIU could keep it close.