The ‘Cats have hope for a bowl game, but there is work to be done.
Last week, nothing was looking great for Northwestern. Coming off a loss to Indiana that sent the team to 2-4, it felt like any bowl hopes were slipping fast, and this Maryland game was all-but a must win. The ‘Cats answered the call last Friday, easily handling the Terps on the road by a final score of 37-10.
Sure, Maryland made its share of mistakes that allowed Northwestern to win comfortably, turning the ball over four times and failing on fourth down three times. But the ‘Cats were solid in this one and renewed some hope. Jack Lausch didn’t light the world on fire, but he did enough to win throwing for 203 yards on 10-of-18 passing. Bryce Kirtz had another impressive showing, catching three passes for 123 yards including a couple bombs from Lausch.
This wasn’t a dominant performance by any means from Northwestern’s offense, yet it still dominated on the scoreboard. And this feels like growth. In the past, we’ve seen this offense let down the defense in games where the ‘Cats have kept the other team off the scoresheet. Earlier in the year against Duke, Northwestern’s defense was flying around, but the offense couldn’t get anything done and it resulted in arguably the worst loss of the season in overtime.
This time, the ‘Cats capitalized on a great defensive performance and cruised to victory. That’s the game script Northwestern wants: a dominant defensive showing coupled with an offensive performance that puts enough points on the board to win.
Looking forward, Northwestern is going to need more games to go this way if it wants to win three more and secure a spot in bowl competition. I’m going to assume the Michigan and Ohio State games are automatic losses here, just for the sake of argument. Could Northwestern execute a shocking victory on the road against the Wolverines? I suppose if everything went right there could be a miracle. But those two games have basically been written in as losses since the schedule release.
That leaves the ‘Cats with games against Wisconsin, Iowa, Purdue and Illinois to get three wins. Illinois is the best of those opponents, currently ranked at No. 22, and that game is also the final contest of the season the Saturday after Thanksgiving. So these next three for Northwestern — Wisconsin, Iowa and Purdue (in that order)—are all huge.
The ‘Cats take on Wisconsin this weekend on the lake bright and early at 11 a.m. CST. The Badgers are currently a seven-point favorite, but Northwestern can win this game. Wisconsin is coming off two blowout victories against Purdue and Rutgers, but I think Northwestern is in a different tier of teams after the Maryland win. It isn’t an elite Big Ten team by any means, but the ‘Cats should, at the very least, push Wisconsin harder than those teams did.
Then, the ‘Cats will play Iowa in what will likely be a defensive struggle similar to what we saw last season at Wrigley Field. To be fair, the Hawkeyes did just drop 40 against Washington. If that offensive explosion proves to be legit, then, frankly, Northwestern is in a lot of trouble on the road in this one. Lausch will struggle against Iowa’s elite defense forcing Northwestern’s defense to keep this game competitive, otherwise that Illinois game at the end of the season will become a must-win.
Last in this three game stretch, Northwestern will take on Purdue on the road in what should be a very winnable game. The Boilermakers are 1-5 and play No. 2 Oregon between now and then. Plus, it’s Purdue against Northwestern in sports. Should be a walk in the park.
If Northwestern finds a way to get all of those wins, then it won’t need to beat a team currently ranked in the brutal stretch run to get to a bowl. And that felt like the formula all year: get to six wins before you have to play the best teams in the conference. It started to feel impossible after losing to Washington and Indiana, but now there’s a path.
Even if they go two-for-three, though, anything could happen against Illinois at Wrigley. The Illini have the better roster and will likely be favored in the matchup, but crazier things have happened. Maybe the weather is awful and Northwestern wins in a grudge match. Maybe Lausch plays the game of his career when it matters most. You just never know.
The bottom line is Northwestern now actually has a couple of chances to make this thing happen. It might not be likely, but it’s possible, and that’s really all ‘Cats fans can ask for at this point. David Braun has this group believing in itself again, and last year that was a scary thing for the opposition. Who’s to say they won’t go on a run in the back half of the season again?
It’s certainly not time to count any chickens, and it’s probably not even time to make any bold Northwestern bowl predictions, but it’s time to acknowledge that hope exists. It could have been dashed this weekend against Maryland, but instead the ‘Cats kept it alive and fueled it with a huge win. Beating Wisconsin at home this coming Saturday could fuel it even more.
It’s not time to turn our attention to basketball season just yet. This football team is giving us something to monitor. Take it week-by-week, but don’t lose hope unless the ‘Cats have lost two of the next three. They might just pull this off.