Here’s to hoping that the offense can survive if A.J. Henning misses time
Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium was unseasonably warm for Saturday’s Wisconsin matchup, but the Wildcat offense still went cold, leading to a disappointing 23-3 loss. Now, at 3-4, the ‘Cats are in a state of flux with their future outcomes unclear. Is a bowl game still possible? With NU’s tough closing schedule, it seems doubtful, but fans held that same sentiment prior to the Wildcats’ blowout of Maryland.
Even an ugly defensive battle against Iowa – usually a guarantee – may not happen against this new-look Hawkeye offense led by running back Kaleb Johnson. It really does seem like anything could happen this week, but optimism should be tempered given last week’s Wildcat performance.
First and foremost, the ‘Cats have to stop the run. If Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty retired today, Johnson would have perhaps the best case for the Doak Walker Award this season. Tawee Walker already ran roughshod over the defensive line last week, and it won’t be any easier against Johnson, the 225-pound junior who averages about eight yards per tote.
The most likely scenario this weekend may not be a blowout Iowa win, but rather, a situation in which the Hawkeyes simply hold onto the ball and hand it off 30 times to their stud halfback. Johnson has scored in every game and has five multi-touchdown outings, so it’s tough to expect NU to completely keep Iowa off the board even if they manage to stifle Hawkeye quarterback Cade McNamara. Northwestern will hope that linebacker Xander Mueller is able to return from injury this week, as his presence provides much-needed leadership for the unit as a whole.
On the bright side, nobody expected Iowa to allow 32 points in a loss to Michigan State, but they did just that last week. It’ll help the Hawkeyes if they can get safety Sebastian Castro back, and there’s no doubt that linebacker Jay Higgins will be the defensive anchor as this team tries to rebound. The problem for NU, though, is the fear that A.J. Henning may very well miss time. In that scenario, the hope is that Bryce Kirtz comes through with a big game, but Northwestern needs a lot more out of Frank Covey IV and Calvin Johnson II regardless of what happens with Henning. Tight end Thomas Gordon had a four-catch game out of necessity last week, and, ideally, he will be able to build on his momentum as well.
As for the running backs, Cam Porter, while still not completely back to his old form, is looking better each week. Offensive coordinator Zach Lujan increased his trust in Porter by giving him 14 carries in Saturday’s loss, and it seems to be only a matter of time before Porter breaks off a big gain or two. Joseph Himon II has continued to flash his potential at times, and it may be an underrated boost to this rushing attack if NU can get Caleb Komolafe back this week as well.
Regardless of what happens with the offense, Saturday should be a game that Northwestern’s secondary can keep relatively close. It’d be nice for the ‘Cats to get points out of their first drive in this one; if they can do that, it’ll likely set a close game in motion.
McNamara was uncharacteristically inaccurate against MSU, completing under 50% of his passes, and with four interceptions on the season, there may be a chance or two for the ‘Cats to replicate Coco Azema’s pick against the Badgers. Iowa can come out with a win in this one by forcing a slow NU start and maintaining a high time of possession. Conversely, if the ‘Cats can quickly stall out Hawkeye drives, it’d potentially set up a situation in which Jack Lausch and all three Wildcat halfbacks could be used to push down the field and whittle away the clock, keeping the defense fresh.
Speaking of Lausch, he may be in some tough spots on Saturday, as it’s more than possible that Northwestern needs to pick up several fourth downs throughout this game. Head coach David Braun will have to weigh his options carefully when considering these choices, and the hope is that the Wildcats will have a more defined fourth-down gameplan than they did against Wisconsin, where Braun’s decision-making was criticized by many.
Sadly, though, Northwestern is almost assuredly going to have to punt multiple times in this matchup, so much of the game flow will hinge on the right foot of Luke Akers. Akers got the benefit of a couple of nice rollouts among his six punts last week, but he averaged just 38.3 yards per punt overall, an unfortunate turn after his two previous games were excellent. Iowa freshman punter Rhys Dakin has been good on the whole this season, so it’s especially important that Akers perform similarly with regard to putting the Northwestern defense in good spots.
Overall, it’s clear that while Jack Lausch has made strides this season, the offensive ceiling will be lowered significantly if A.J. Henning is out or limited Saturday. Ultimately, Lausch will need to make consistently decisive and accurate throws, and fans will hope that he continues to make plays with his legs after putting up 55 rushing yards last week.
The ‘Cats are fighting an uphill battle against an Iowa team looking to avenge last week’s loss. However, Northwestern will have a number of opportunities to keep this game low-scoring and close, so it’s not entirely unreasonable to hope for a tight game if key NU players can come through in a big spot. This game is closer than ever to a must-win for the Wildcats. It’s time for some clutch plays in big moments against the Hawkeyes.