The bye week has come and gone, and NU’s path isn’t getting any easier.
Flashback to September 21… it’s felt like an eternity for some of us since Northwestern’s 24-5 loss at Washington. Since then, students have returned to Evanston, fall quarter classes are underway, and routines that were on pause for a long three and a half months are beginning anew. One routine that is certain to change this time around is football gameday, a tradition I’m about to partake in for the first time in 322 days this coming weekend.
Saturday will be my first visit to Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium, and also Northwestern’s first Big Ten conference game in the temporary venue. As the waves of Lake Michigan crash onto the painted rocks just feet away, Northwestern will face a tidal wave of its own on the field: the No. 23 ranked Indiana Hoosiers.
Just over a month ago, most Big Ten football writers ranked Indiana near the bottom of the conference preseason rankings, near teams like UCLA and Purdue that have thus far proven incapable of keeping up with the competition. Looking back on those projections, we should have egg on our faces for not having more belief in Curt Cignetti’s team from the start.
From the Northwestern perspective, some viewed this game as a lock when evaluating the schedule prior to the season. Inside NU ranked the Indiana game as the third likeliest win in its winnability rankings article, just ahead of Miami (OH) and Eastern Illinois, two games in which the ‘Cats emerged victorious. This game was seen as an essential part of NU’s path to six wins and a bowl game for the second season in a row. Now, it’s one very few think Northwestern will capture.
Massive credit goes to the Hoosiers of course. Their offense ranks ninth in the country in average yards per game, surpassing 500 through five games and just behind Ohio State in leading the conference. Indiana has scored more than 30 points in all five of its games, topping 40 in four of those contests. Kurtis Rourke has also been one of college football’s best quarterbacks, notching nearly 1,500 passing yards and 11 touchdowns after coming over from Ohio.
Even with Northwestern’s strong defense, it will be quite difficult to stop IU from unleashing its full offensive force on Saturday. I trust the defense to hold Indiana to its lowest scoring game of the season, but that itself won’t be enough to pull out the victory.
Northwestern’s bigger concern is the dilemma it faces at quarterback. Jack Lausch completed less than a third of his passes against Washington two weeks ago, a further worry for the ‘Cats after he made strides in the second half against Eastern Illinois. Braun’s decision to bank on long-term consistency and the future with Lausch rather than experience with Mike Wright is an interesting one for a team still very much alive for bowl contention this year, but speaks to Braun’s vision beyond 2024 that allows Lausch to develop as Northwestern’s signal caller even if his current performances aren’t mightily impressive on the stat sheet.
Beyond the issues at quarterback, there are other problems on the offensive side as well. Cam Porter’s health is still in question, as NU’s top option in the backfield missed the Washington game with a lower-body injury. Braun said in his Monday press conference that Porter was trending in the right direction, but didn’t give any clarification that he’d be active for Saturday. There have been depth issues on the offensive line as well, which have now been further worsened by Jordan Knox redshirting for the remainder of the season and intending to enter the transfer portal.
However, even with Northwestern being the heavy underdogs in this game and facing struggles on offense, we have learned by now to never count this team out. The ‘Cats seem to figure out new ways to win all the time, especially when the deck is stacked against them. Wins last season against Minnesota, Maryland, and Wisconsin were certainly not expected, but the ‘Cats found a way to get the job done. Northwestern might have a 10% chance of winning this game, but it’s still a fighting chance against a really good Indiana team. With a packed crowd full of students on the lakefront and two weeks of rest to fix mistakes and build consistency on the offense, this game could prove to be closer than expected if Northwestern handles business where it needs to.
If you ask me where this team stands at the moment, it’s hard to tell. We’re only a third of the way through the season, with lots of football still to play. Northwestern might be in a tough spot as we speak here in early October, but as a crucial roadblock nears, NU’s season is far from over even if it gets knocked off course this weekend.