Kansas Robinson’s slump is no longer just a slow start — Northwestern’s star first baseman needs to find her groove, and fast.
Sitting at 14-11, Northwestern softball is still in the process of figuring out its identity — a fact that’s evidently clear after being outscored 28-6 at home last weekend by No. 19 Mississippi State. But to be fair, it’s a lot harder to find an identity and stride against elite competition when the team’s best hitter has lost her mojo.
Now that Northwestern is 25 games into its season, there is no longer any merit to say Kansas Robinson’s slump is a product of a small sample size. Quite frankly, she’s simply struggling.
For a hitter that garnered Second Team All-American honors from Softball America and First Team All-Big Ten honors after slashing .383/.486/.705 with 11 home runs and 36 RBIs in 2024, the first half of 2025 has been a complete reversal.
Through 25 games last season, Robinson was one of the best players in the country with a .473/.564/.878 slash line to go alongside seven homers and 21 RBIs. With the junior currently slashing .200/.303/.373 with two home runs and eight RBIs, Northwestern needs its most talented bat to wake up, and needs that to happen now.
Of players in the Big Ten this season that played for Big Ten teams last year (including UCLA, Oregon and Washington), Robinson is in a spot no hitter wants to be. She was fourth in the Big Ten in OPS last season, but has regressed to 118th as she’s struggled to find her power and her way on the basepaths.
Meanwhile, we’ve seen major leaps from Ohio State’s Jasmyn Burns, UCLA’s Jordan Woolery and Indiana’s Taylor Minnick, who all actively sit in the top-five of the Big Ten in OPS. You’ll also see Michigan State’s Hannah Hawley and Northwestern’s Kelsey Nader in the mix, who have both stayed pretty consistent at the plate from last year statistically. Nader has found her groove after a slow start with hits in nine of her last 10, including five multi-hit games in that stretch.
With Northwestern’s offensive struggles last weekend against Mississippi State, scoring just six runs over 17 innings of action, it’s no surprise that Robinson wasn’t part of the offensive mix. She went hitless in eight plate appearances, walking once, while striking out four times. Her hitless streak now sits at four games after starting off conference play in Oklahoma City with a hit in three straight.
While Robinson’s hot start to 2024 came to a halt in the last 18 games of last season, that slump doesn’t have the same flavor as what Robinson is experiencing right now. Over that stretch to end 2024, Robinson slashed just .220/.343/.390 with two homers and nine RBIs, including a 10.6% strikeout rate and .220 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). In other words, she wasn’t really striking out and still putting balls in play — just getting relatively unlucky by hitting right into opposing defenses.
Flash forward to her 2025 start, and those advanced metrics tell a different story. Her strikeout rate has ballooned to 24.7%, while her BABIP sits at .245, still well below what we’d expect to see from a hitter of Robinson’s quality. Nonetheless, with four strikeouts in her last four games, not to mention nine in her first seven games of the season, the punchouts have been a problem.
But it’s not like we haven’t seen her bat shine at times this season. Her 4-for-4 day against UT Arlington with two RBIs and two doubles shows the talent hasn’t vanished. The issue is that of her 15 hits on the season, four of them came in that game — her lone multi-hit performance of the season. That strain to rack up hits like we saw last year is seen in the team’s percentage of hits coming from her bat.
Both Robinson and Nader did the heavy lifting in 2024, but Robinson’s role has been almost cut in half due to her decline. Regardless of major contributions from senior Grace Nieto picking up the slack at the top of the lineup and first-year shortstop Kaylie Avvisato, Robinson’s bat is too talented and has too much pop to be accounting for fewer than 12-14% of the team’s hits — even in an off year.
Her splits in wins and losses go to show just how important her bat is in the middle of the lineup. In Northwestern’s 14 wins, Robinson is slashing .250/.364/.477 with two homers, seven RBIs, a strikeout rate at 18.2% and a walk rate at 16.4%. While those numbers hardly jump off the page, those are sizable increases to the .129/.206/.226 slashline with no homers, one RBI a strikeout rate at 35.3% and walk rate at 8.8% in 11 losses.
If Robinson could magically turn back into her 2024 self, that could fix a lot of Northwestern’s offensive inconsistencies. The win-loss splits go to show just how crucial it is for Robinson to operate even at an average level compared to a statistically run-of-the-mill hitter.
However, with four games this week against favorable pitching, the time is now for Robinson to find herself. Northwestern faces NIU at home on Wednesday, a team that has allowed a .314 batting average allowed (BAA), not to mention a 1.73 WHIP and 4.71 team ERA. While those numbers are relatively middle-of-the-pack in the MAC, a home game against a non-power conference opponent is an opportunity to reset.
Plus, as Northwestern’s flawless 4-0 start to conference play will be tested by a three game slate at Minnesota this weekend, the Golden Gophers’ 4.24 ERA, .293 BAA (second-highest in the Big Ten), 1.73 WHIP (third-highest in the Big Ten) and 4.2 strikeouts per seven (tied-for-second lowest in the Big Ten) create another awesome opportunity for Robinson to find herself.
As conference play ramps up and the ‘Cats look to defend their three-consecutive Big Ten regular season titles, that’s all Northwestern can hope from its sputtering superstar at first base.