Mike Wright’s quarterback keeper and Northwestern’s third down woes are just part of the story.
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Trailing 26-20, with a crucial third-and-1 from the 4-yard-line in double overtime against Duke, Northwestern had a Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl 49-like moment.
With running back Cam Porter chugging for 34 yards including a touchdown on six carries in overtime, the ‘Cats opted to keep the ball in Mike Wright’s hands on a quarterback keeper. Tight end Thomas Gordon couldn’t quite get the block on Duke’s Chandler Rivers who pummeled Wright for a loss of eight yards, plunging Northwestern’s hopes at winning.
But as my good friend Brendan Preisman pointed out a day after the game, that botched third-and-1 play call was a microcosm of Northwestern’s offense as a whole. To be even more precise, it paralleled the Wildcats’ third down woes through two weeks.
It’s still early in Northwestern’s 2024 campaign, but through Week 1 and Week 2 of college football back in action, Northwestern’s 29.6% third down conversion rate ranks last in the Big Ten and 115th in the country. Its 8.96 average yards to go on third down also ranks last in the conference.
Sure, it has been two games with a slew of conference rivals playing matchups against weaker competition. Just look at a two-win Rutgers squad that beat Howard 44-7 in Week 1 and Akron 49-17 in Week 2. Don’t be surprised if the Scarlet Knights fall back toward the rest of the pack with a Week 3 matchup at Virginia Tech on deck for Saturday. Plus, Purdue and UCLA got Week 2 off which makes both schools’ data points less concrete.
However, the point remains. Northwestern is in the part of the graph it doesn’t want to be near, and the schedule does not get easier in Big Ten play. Friday’s performance against Duke also didn’t help the situation. A dismal 3-for-16 day on third downs was the worst performance by Northwestern percentage-wise since a 2-for-15 day against Wisconsin in 2020. Even in a year where Northwestern went 1-11 in 2022, the Wildcats were never that bad on the money down.
Running the ball has been especially problematic on third down. Helped by Northwestern’s overtime hiccup against the Blue Devils, the Wildcats averaged -1.8 yards per rush on third down. First and second down penalties, paired with poor play calling on early downs hasn’t helped either. Of the Wildcats’ 27 third downs, 14 of them have been third-and-longs (nine or more yards from the line to gain).
“The things that we can absolutely control are pre-snap and post-snap penalties,” coach David Braun said Monday when asked about third down situations. “It’s false starts that we have to eradicate. Technically, we can clean some of those things up.”
In the same presser, Braun announced Jack Lausch’s replacement of Wright at quarterback, tasking the young gunslinger to get a Northwestern offense moving through the air alongside offensive coordinator Zach Lujan. Only issue is Lujan’s offense has struggled mightily.
For starters, Northwestern is one of just five FBS teams, joining Notre Dame, Miami of Ohio, Western Michigan and Air Force without a touchdown pass this season. Alongside Lujan’s rough playcalling, Bryce Kirtz, arguably Northwestern’s best offensive weapon, had two catches for 29 yards against Duke, his fewest receptions in a game since 2022.
So what’s the health of Northwestern’s offense right now?
In the 19th percentile in passing offense, 36th percentile in rushing offense, 14th percentile in third down conversion rate, 11th percentile in scoring and 17th percentile in total yards, it’s not too pretty. For the same reasons I outlined earlier, take those numbers with a grain of salt. Two weeks of action is a small sample size, and most of college football’s power conference teams have faced FCS and weaker FBS competition. Having faced two legit football teams in Miami of Ohio and Duke, the Wildcats are lower in national percentile rankings then they’ll be by the end of the season, especially considering Saturday’s matchup against an FCS opponent in Eastern Illinois. Still, those offensive rankings are a cause of concern. This visual will be updated throughout the season to keep track of where Northwestern sits.
On the other hand, Northwestern’s defense outside of its 29th percentile pass defense has been fantastic through two weeks and should see a bump after the EIU game. Currently sitting in the 87th percentile in rush defense, 62nd percentile in scoring defense, 61st percentile in third down defense and 52nd percentile in total defense, Northwestern’s defense won Week 1 and kept the game close in Week 2 against Duke. It’s time for the offense to pick up the slack.
And that’s part of the reason why the ‘Cats are going to Lausch with Wright’s struggles. After a tight preseason battle between the two quarterbacks, what better opponent than Eastern Illinois to try and change the mojo by trotting out a redshirt sophomore for his first career start?
This is an offense with pieces too, just an inability through two weeks to weave them together. Cam Porter looked outstanding last week, rushing for 93 yards and two touchdowns on just 16 carries. Bursting out for a career-long 44-yard rush on Northwestern’s opening drive, Porter finished with multiple touchdowns for just the third time in his collegiate career.
Through the air, Lujan made a point of getting A.J. Henning touches after the speedster had five catches for 19 yards against Miami of Ohio. In Week 2, Henning racked up nine touches including eight catches for 52 yards, tying a Northwestern career-high in touches set against Maryland last season. However, he caught six passes at or behind the line of scrimmage against the Blue Devils, with 49 of his 52 yards coming after the catch. Similar story in Week 1, where Henning caught three of his five passes at or behind the line of scrimmage. That’s ok if Henning is going to be used only as a target on screens and slants, but his offensive game and route tree are much more than working laterally and underneath.
Plus, after being targeted 10 times in Week 1, Lujan needs to get Kirtz the rock after just four targets in Week 2. Playcalling is never a perfect science, but balancing the rushing attack and Northwestern’s two star receivers for Lausch under center feels like a priority for this offense.
With Eastern Illinois on deck, this week is the perfect opportunity for Northwestern’s offense to finally find its footing before its first Big Ten clash of the year against Washington in Week 4. The only question is can Lausch be the answer for Lujan to string the pieces of a broken offense back together?