A bowl game potentially? It did last season.
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Winning the turnover battle is football’s version of stacking a plus-four card in Uno right after someone tries to force you to pick up four cards. It completely shifts the game’s dynamic, giving you a chance to win.
Remember last week, when the sky felt like it was falling, slowly suffocating any hope of a bowl appearance after losing 41-24 against Indiana?
If you look at the box score in Northwestern’s 37-10 win over Maryland Friday night, it’s hardly convincing that frame of reference is gone. The Wildcats were outgained by Maryland 355 yards to 283 yards, racked up just nine first downs to Maryland’s 25 first downs and were penalized seven times for 54 yards. Yet, even in a game where the box score alludes to the fact that the sky is indeed falling, Northwestern’s complementary football prevailed against a team entering the week with a conference-leading plus-11 turnover margin.
The Wildcats forced four second half turnovers, one on special teams and three on defense, rekindling the fire underneath their season. Defensive back Damon Walters shined with an interception and fumble recovery while Braden Turner picked up a fumble of his own. Aidan Hubbard seized a strip sack from Carmine Bastone, picking up a defensive touchdown.
Stopping Maryland on three of its four fourth down attempts only fanned the flames. The playbook is nothing new. It’s as Northwestern as it gets.
Finishing with a plus-four turnover margin, Northwestern posted its best single game turnover margin since beating Wisconsin 17-7 at home in 2020. The Wildcats also finished with a plus-four turnover margin against Maryland that season en route to a Citrus Bowl victory over Auburn.
Northwestern’s four forced turnovers were the most the Wildcats’ defense has forced since forcing four turnovers against Purdue and Illinois in back-to-back weeks last season. Zooming out, Northwestern has forced four turnovers in three of its last nine games dating back to last season.
You’ll notice that of the 11 games on the graphic above, five of them came last season as the ‘Cats ranked third in the country with a plus-13 turnover margin. This is just what David Braun teams do.
Against the Terrapins, Northwestern converted takeaways into points, scoring 17 points off Maryland’s mistakes. That’s the real reason why Northwestern’s relatively ineffective offense outside of three chunk throws from Jack Lausch wasn’t a problem.
“Really excited about the turnover margin,” coach Braun said after beating Maryland. “Really proud of the way that our offense valued the football.”
Notice how part two of that was mentioning the offense’s role. After all, turnover margin is just turnovers gained minus turnovers lost. It’s always going to help when you don’t turn the ball over.
And as Northwestern’s four turnovers-forced week has boosted the ‘Cats into a tie for fifth in the conference in turnover margin and turnover margin per game, a big catalyst has been Jack Lausch’s ability to take care of the football. After all, that’s the main reason Braun made the change to Lausch after Mike Wright struggled against Duke.
Although Lausch threw two interceptions against Washington, one of which was more on Calvin Johnson II dropping what should have been a first down, he’s been as advertised in terms of ball security. And he momentarily answered the arm strength questions with three passing plays of 40-plus yards in College Park.
This is the same recipe that Northwestern followed to a Las Vegas Bowl victory last season. Strong defense, loads of forced turnovers and the occasional explosive offensive play to score points on the board.
With Wisconsin this week, and bowl hopes still within remote possibility, the matchup with the Badgers is a must win, especially with Iowa, Ohio State and Michigan still on the schedule.
The good news for the ‘Cats is Wisconsin’s minus-two turnover margin, the fifth worst mark in the Big Ten and 88th worst in the country. For a Northwestern team that excels on winning the turnover battle, that’s critical.
Under David Braun, Northwestern is 8-2 when it finishes a game with a positive turnover margin and 11-5 dating back to last season in games where the turnover margin is zero or better in Northwestern’s favor. The last time Northwestern won a game in regulation while losing the turnover battle was Sept. 11, 2021 against Indiana State. The last time the Wildcats won a game in regulation against a power conference team while losing the turnover battle was Dec. 12, 2020 against Illinois. That’s a whopping 46 games ago.
Northwestern’s magic to surprise opponents isn’t difficult to understand. Take care of the football, force turnovers and capitalize.
It’s the Northwestern way, and the ‘Cats are going to need it again if they want to truly get their season back on track.
Here’s where Northwestern ranks nationally after Week 7:
