Visualizing basketball through the numbers: What we’ve learned about the offense

Shades of 2022-23?

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You miss the high scoring, three point heavy affairs from last season, don’t you? That uncanny ability for Northwestern to find that extra offensive gear, whether it be in overtime victories over Purdue and Illinois or comfortably beating Michigan State and Ohio State at home.

Well, this is not that team. This team has scored more than 70 points just three times in eight games — against Montana State, UIC and Lehigh (a 90-point outing slowly growing as a massive blip on the radar). By this time last year, Northwestern had done it five times in seven games, including a victory over the top-ranked Boilermakers.

To be fair, without Boo Buie, this season was always going to be different. Chris Collins offenses aren’t known to be smooth. He’s known for his defensive and gritty teams that thrive in rock fights. The 2024-25 Northwestern Wildcats are no different.

Looking at Northwestern’s KenPom adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency by season (which adjusts for opponent) during the Chris Collins era, you’ll notice this year’s bars look incredibly similar to 2022-23 — Northwestern’s second trip to the Big Dance. That team was characterized by its stingy defense and frustratingly stagnant offense. Even with that stagnancy, the squad possessed an uncanny ability to hit big shots in big moments (the Chase Audige against Purdue flashbacks are crying out right now). This year’s Wildcats have similar traits — especially the defensive capability. We’ve seen good-to-great defense against teams that have proven to be quality thus far like Dayton (beat Connecticut) and Butler (beat Mississippi State).

Similar to recent history, the problems offensively stem from a lack of offensive rhythm and flow in big moments. Remember that 2022-23 season where it felt like Buie or Audige dribbled the basketball at half court for the first 15 seconds of every possession? This season, there have been major scoring droughts where the ‘Cats rely too heavily on iso basketball to salvage the situation. These are the kinds of things that happen when you don’t have a true point guard that can set up the offense and when you only have three players that look like consistent scoring options.

Looking at usage numbers (essentially a measurement of the percentage of team possessions a player is using to attempt a shot, get to the free throw line or turn the ball over), it makes sense that Brooks Barnhizer, Nick Martinelli and Jalen Leach sizably pace Northwestern’s rotation. In the desert, Barnhizer showed he’s still the offense’s alpha dog — dropping 24 points against Butler and 23 against UNLV en route to Arizona Tip-Off All-Tournament honors.

The problem is that with Ty Berry’s struggles and Matthew Nicholson’s inability to create offense from the post, when Barnhizer, Martinelli and Leach stumble, Northwestern inevitably stumbles too. Martinelli and Leach floundered against Butler. And although Martinelli poured 32 in against Dayton, with Barnhizer still sidelined, Leach mustered just seven points.

Point is: when only one of the trio is feeling it, Northwestern is most likely not going to find success against strong competition. That’s why getting Berry going or running lobs for Nicholson is paramount to finding offensive balance. Plus, finding offense off the bench —whether it be K.J. Windham’s shooting and driving abilities or Justin Mullins’ relentless baseline cuts — is critical to the depth scoring Northwestern’s big three needs.

The problem with relying on the individual scoring abilities of Northwestern’s trio is the lack of passing they provide. That scoring focus has diminished Northwestern’s assists in losses — just 10 against Butler and 11 against Dayton, compared to averaging 15.7 assists in wins. Taking away 22 assists against Lehigh, the ‘Cats are averaging 14.2 assists in their five other victories. For reference, Northwestern averaged 15.6 assists a game last season — albeit with one of the best point guards in the country.

Against UNLV, Northwestern had 15 assists, largely thanks to actions that used the ‘Runnin Rebels’ willingness to collapse the paint on baseline drives or post-ups to generate good looks from deep.

Other than a heck of a screen from Luke Hunger on that play, step two of that success was an 8-for-18 hit rate from beyond the arc — something that has not been consistent this season.

After becoming the first team in Big Ten history to have three players shoot at least 40% from deep while attempting at least five threes a game, losing Buie and Ryan Langborg was never going to help Northwestern’s shooting. The ‘Cats have only shot 40% or better from deep in three games this season, while shooting 26.3% or worse from deep in the other five contests.

Berry’s struggles have been especially noteworthy. Prior to his knee injury last year, he shot a career-high 43.3% from deep, but through eight games this season, he’s operating at a paltry 31.4% clip. He’ll improve as he continues to get his legs underneath him, but the early season struggles have been palpable.

Barnhizer (6-for-15 from deep) and Martinelli (9-for-15) have improved as three point shooters, which increases the offensive diversity. This is another example from the UNLV game where the ability to pressure the rim from one member of the dynamic duo opens up space for the other.

This has to be a staple of Northwestern’s offense all season long, especially with the need for defenses to collapse given Barnhizer and Martinelli’s paint prowess.

The truth is, Northwestern has ridden this recipe before. Sure, personnel-wise it looks a little different to two seasons ago where the ‘Cats were led by two more traditional guards compared to the “I’m not even sure Chris Collins knows what position Barnhizer and Martinelli play” combo. However, Northwestern’s defense is as stingy as ever, while the offense has shown it has the potential to shoot the three ball well. Notably, that 2022-23 team only shot 32.1% from downtown, which compares favorably to the Wildcats’ 32.6% hit rate from deep so far this year. Finding offense and hitting big shots in big moments is what saved that squad two years ago, something Northwestern has been iffy with so far this year.

Without more consistent three point shooting, this team is toast as it enters Big Ten play, but the ‘Cats found their stroke when they desperately needed it against UNLV on Friday. Against Iowa and Illinois this week, they’re going to need it again, as every opportunity for a Quad 1 win is pivotal for this team’s resume come March.

In the meantime, make sure your heart can handle some rock fights. This Chris Collins basketball team is nothing new.