A must-win tomorrow night against Maryland.
At 1-4 in conference play, Northwestern is in mid-January desperation mode. The softly ringing fire alarm my good friend Ethan Segall mentioned last week is teetering on the edge of turning into a full blown siren.
It’s definitely not ideal when Brooks Barnhizer, Northwestern’s premier player, has gone ice cold in his last two games, shooting 6-of-28 from the field as he nears the career 1000-point mark. It’s also hardly perfect that coach Chris Collins has had to dive deeper into his bench, opting to play first-years K.J. Windham and Angelo Ciaravino in search of an offensive spark.
Good news is that Northwestern has the opportunity to begin flipping the script tomorrow night with a Quad 1 home game against Maryland. But here are where things stand before the bout with the Terrapins.
From the beginning of the season, this team’s goal has been to make the NCAA Tournament for the third consecutive year. Taking away Northwestern’s small chance to earn an automatic bid by winning the Big Ten Tournament (which in the 18-team Big Ten, the Wildcats have to qualify for), Bart Torvik’s TourneyCast gives Northwestern a 6.2% chance to earn an at-large bid. That’s the fourth-lowest chance in the Big Ten.
It’s an uphill climb, but it’s not impossible. Nick Martinelli and Brooks Barnhizer are still two All-Big Ten caliber players. And even after Michigan State exploded for 47 first half points, shooting an unconscious 62.1% from the field, the Wildcats’ defense gave Northwestern a chance in the game’s final 20 minutes.
The only issue is that this offense may have used too much of its strong play in the season opener against Lehigh. Oh, how the mood has changed since that 90-point performance.
The truth is if Ty Berry can’t get going and Northwestern’s big three of Barnhizer, Martinelli and Jalen Leach aren’t combining for 50 points, the Wildcats aren’t going to win many games. This is the reality in a post-Boo Buie era. But part of it is also Northwestern’s recent shot selection.
A roughly 10-point increase in three-point attempt rate during Northwestern’s three game skid is a stark change in style for a team not accustomed to launching from deep. This is equally a representation of the ‘Cats settling for threes as much as it is a byproduct of defenses having figured out how to defend Northwestern. To be honest, it’s not that difficult when their two best scorers are interior and mid-range threats that take relatively inefficient shots. A couple weeks ago, I outlined how Northwestern was taking the right amount of threes. Fast forward to now and the Wildcats are shooting too many of them.
It’s not entirely their fault. To be fair, a lot of these increased looks haven’t been forced, but rather a result of defenses collapsing the paint and forcing the ‘Cats to beat them from deep. That’s the reason Barnhizer goes 0-for-6 from downtown against the Spartans. He’s not a great three point shooter, but Michigan State baited him into taking them.
As guys that can hit the occasional trey, that’s the positive of having players like Ciaravino and Windham on the floor. They stretch out defenses because they’re capable of knocking down threes.
That’s really been the biggest issue with Ty Berry’s struggles. As much as those extra points from made three-pointers would bump up Northwestern’s offensive floor, the ability to hit those threes fundamentally changes the geometry on the floor. Now, instead of focusing on Berry in the corner, that defender can collapse or help on the drive to the hoop.
If you watch back the game against Michigan State, Northwestern ran a ton of creative action. The only issue is it feels like 50% of it is focused on getting Barnhizer or Martinelli one-on-one opportunities in the post. And without three point shooters surrounding the Wildcats’ interior focus, defenses can collapse, collapse and collapse some more, forcing Northwestern to chuck more threes from players that are struggling from behind the arc.
Tomorrow night, Maryland will undoubtedly run the same defensive gameplan: wall off Barnhizer and Martinelli from the paint as much as possible and force Berry, Leach, Mullins, Ciaravino and Windham to win from beyond the arc.
The biggest key for the ‘Cats is not settling for threes. And when they do shoot threes, making those early looks is critical to opening things up inside against a lineup loaded with height headlined by Derik Queen and Julian Reese. The Terrapins also defend the three well, holding opponents to just 31.4% shooting from deep — tied for the 81st-best mark in the nation.
Yet the biggest reason this game is so crucial is because it’s a Quad 1 opportunity that directly impacts tournament chances. As things stand, there are only seven Quad 1 opportunities left on Northwestern’s schedule, including tomorrow night. Northwestern is already 1-5 in Quad 1 games with the lone win being the Wildcats’ victory over Illinois.
Assuming losses on the road at Illinois, Michigan, Oregon, Maryland and Ohio State a win over Maryland tomorrow night, paired with home wins against Wisconsin, UCLA, Nebraska, Iowa, Indiana, USC and Rutgers and road wins at Washington and Minnesota gets Northwestern to 11-9 in conference play with a 3-10 Quad 1 record, 5-1 Quad 2 record and 6-0 Quad 3 record if the season were to end today. That’s dicey, but with a win or two in the Big Ten tournament that could potentially get Northwestern back to March, especially if it’s able to add a Quad 1 victory to the resume.
Of course, there will be plenty of NET ranking shifts that could disrupt which games end up being Quad 1, Quad 2 and Quad 3. For example, I’m not exactly convinced Maryland stays top-30 in the NET by the end of the season. Similarly, UCLA has struggled lately but has the talent to climb back into the top-30 and add another Quad 1 opportunity at home to Northwestern’s slate.
Those five assumed road losses are the places where Northwestern can make up the most ground with wins. However, the bottom line is defending home court and beating Maryland tomorrow night is a must.
Another loss only digs the Wildcats’ hole deeper.