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Visualizing basketball through the numbers: Casey Harter the X-factor

January 8, 2025 by Inside NU

@nuwbball on X

Harter is quietly becoming one of the Big Ten’s most dependable players.

Note: To optimally view the visualizations used below, access this article on a computer.

Through 15 games this season, Northwestern guard Casey Harter hasn’t just surpassed her freshman year scoring total. She’s established herself as the Wildcats’ most trusty and perhaps least heralded asset.

And while a stat line of 7.4 points, 2.7 rebounds and 1.8 assists a game doesn’t immediately pop off the stat sheet, Harter’s steady play and fundamental defense is critical for the ‘Cats as they enter the heart of conference play in search of their first Big Ten win of the season.

You don’t have to look too far to be impressed. In a league loaded with seven top 25 teams, including two California teams in the country’s top four, Harter’s 35 minutes per game not only leads the ‘Cats but the entire Big Ten.

https://public.flourish.studio/resources/embed.jschart visualization

There are a slew of impressive names on the list, including three Hoosiers who the Wildcats will see at Welsh-Ryan tomorrow and USC’s JuJu Watkins — who Northwestern will hope to slow down next week. Yet on a top 10 list peppered with seven upperclassman, Northwestern’s sophomore paces the conference in minutes played per game.

Throughout his time at Northwestern, coach Joe McKeown has been unafraid to keep his best players out on the floor. Veronica Burton and Amy Jaeschke finished top five in the Big Ten in minutes per game twice, while Lindsey Pulliam and Abi Scheid each reached that mark once. Now-assistant coach Maggie Lyon was top 10 in the Big Ten in minutes played per game every year of her career. If Harter finished out the rest of the season at her current pace, her 35 minutes per game would be the most by a Wildcat since Veronica Burton’s 36.5 minutes per contest in 2021-22.

That’s a whole lot of Wildcat royalty that Harter is flirting with. But alongside her defensive consistency, it’s her ability to add an extra dimension to an interior focused offense that makes her a must-have on the floor.

https://public.flourish.studio/resources/embed.jsscatter visualization

Of Big Ten players shooting 35% or better from deep and attempting at least three treys per game (in other words efficient volume shooters), Harter’s 41.3% shooting from deep ranks sixth out of the 24 players that meet that criteria. Her 19 made three pointers through 15 games has already more than tripled her six treys from a season ago. Beside Tayla Thomas, who averages under one attempted three per contest, Harter is the only Wildcat shooting better than 30% from deep.

Northwestern knows its strength is not shooting the three. That’s why its 23.3% three point shooting rate is the lowest in the Big Ten. It’s not forcing the issue when it has a trio of strong inside scorers with Caileigh Walsh, Taylor Williams and Grace Sullivan. Kyla Jones also excels at attacking the basket, while Melannie Daley’s midrange prowess rounds out Northwestern’s five double digit scorers — tied for the most double digit scorers on a single team in the Big Ten.

Harter only averages 3.1 three point attempts per game, but at her efficient shooting clip, making an effort to give her an extra look or two a game could be big for stretching out defenses and allowing the ‘Cats to attack the hoop. Especially with how she’s been shooting it lately, riding a six-game streak with a triple made. That streak includes three games with multiple made treys, a good sign ahead of a midweek matchup against an Indiana team with the conference’s second-worst three point defense.

When Caroline Lau’s three point stroke inevitably returns and Walsh finds more consistency beyond the arc, that gives Northwestern three capable volume three point shooters. You’ll likely see a small dip in efficiency if Harter ends up hoisting up more shots, but moving closer to the pack of Ella Collier, Britt Prince and Sarah Te-Biasu is well worth the potential of more points on the scoreboard and extra space for Northwestern’s offense inside.

https://public.flourish.studio/resources/embed.jschart visualization

Getting a few extra looks for a player with just an 11% usage rate — by far the lowest of any player in Northwestern’s core rotation of seven — doesn’t feel like a major shift. Four of Northwestern’s five leading scorers are relatively balanced in terms of usage, with Walsh the lone Wildcat above 24%. Of every Wildcat that’s touched the floor this season, only Claire Keswick, who hasn’t attempted a field goal yet, has a lower usage percentage than Harter.

Harter has earned Northwestern’s trust because of her smart decision making, strong, mostly foul-free defense and improvement shooting the three ball. But at the same time, averaging just 6.1 field goal attempts per game isn’t aggressive enough for a player who is always on the floor.

As the brutal schedule of Big Ten action rolls on, Northwestern must lean on its sophomore guard, who’s proven to be her team’s backbone on both ends on the floor.

Harter might not be flashy, but she’s the workhorse the ‘Cats need as they look to bounce back to .500 on the season against Indiana on Wednesday.

Filed Under: Northwestern

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