Ace Baldwin Jr.’s Nittany Lions are the first test in a bonafide Big Ten gauntlet.
Northwestern finished non-conference play with blood pressures low.
Besides the brief Chicago State flashback that was the first six minutes against Northeastern, the ‘Cats spent a relaxing Christmas break playing with their food. But playtime is over.
“If I looked at the schedule, I’d get physically ill, said the ever-confident coach Collins after the 25-point Northeastern win, “Every coach would. The league is that deep and that good.”
Collins’ queasy stomach can be forgiven with a quick glance at Northwestern’s next seven opponents. Thursday’s trip to Happy Valley is the first in a seven game stretch where the ‘Cats will play six Quad 1 opponents and the Indiana Hoosiers. Collins is confident in his group — don’t mistake an upset stomach for a lack of belief. Northwestern is capable of beating each and every single team it will face in the upcoming 18 games. 11 years of Big Ten experience has just colored some pale reality into Collins’ usual scarlet face.
Yet Northwestern should inspire some fear as well. I watched Nick Martinelli drain the color from four traveling Illinois students who made their way into the Wildcat student section for the Dec. 6 Battle for the Hat. They were good kids, if a little soft for invading the South bleachers without a drop of orange and blue. I felt for them. Unfortunate luck to be a freshman in Champaign just as the balance of power starts to shift purple.
Brooks Barnhizer is ready for the carnage. “We know we have a gauntlet ahead,” said Northwestern’s leading man, “It’s a 20-round fight. We have to win the next round.”
Penn State is up first on Jan. 2. The 11-2 Nittany Lions already have a home win against Purdue to their ledger, with their two losses coming against 10-3 Clemson in Daytona Beach and Rutgers in Piscataway. Ace Baldwin Jr. will be one of the best guards Northwestern faces all year, a fifth year senior whose combination of scoring and playmaking is perhaps unmatched in the Big Ten. His 8.6 assists per game are tied with Braden Smith for the most in the conference and good for third in the country. Baldwin Jr., who averages 14.8 points per game himself, also has four double-digit scorers behind him.
Here’s how Northwestern can get by Baldwin Jr. and escape Happy Valley with a win.
Get Martinelli help breaking the Penn State press
During Collins’ Monday media availability after Northwestern’s 71-66 loss to Dayton, I asked him why Martinelli was the primary ball handler for much of the second half with three other guards — Jalen Leach, Ty Berry and K.J. Windham — on the floor. Collins responded that Dayton’s “ball-hawking guards” — Malachi Smith, Trevon Bennet and Posh Alexander — were getting the better of Leach, Windham and Berry, and “what it became was ‘throw the ball back to Nick.’”
Collins added that he thought Martinelli, who scored 32 points and came down with 14 rebounds in 39 minutes against Dayton, got tired in the last ten minutes as Northwestern’s lead began to slip away.
Penn State has a similar defensive profile to that of the Flyers. Ace Baldwin Jr. was the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year last season, and his Nittany Lions have employed a press-heavy defense 11 games into the season. Baldwin Jr. leads Penn State with 2.1 steals per game, and four other Nittany Lions average at least one. Northwestern will have to deal with ball-hawking guards galore on Thursday. The ‘Cats were of course without Barnhizer in their loss to Dayton, and Martinelli won’t be tasked with doing nearly as much with No. 13 on the floor, but the Penn State press is a legitimate problem.
Northwestern dealt with a full court press with ease against Georgia Tech two weeks ago. The Yellow Jackets forced a turnover in their first possession pressing, but the ‘Cats were quickly able to get downhill and maintain their lead.
Penn State is a whole different beast.
If you see a bee in the wild, the best thing to do is ignore it. Conventional wisdom (according to Reddit) when encountering a mountain lion in the wild is first to “stay calm,” and next to avoid making “any sudden movements that might make you look like prey.”
The Nittany Lions force 17.2 turnovers a game, good for second in the country. Penn State turned Purdue over a whopping 24 times in its November upset of the Boilermakers. Northwestern will need each of Leach, Martinelli and Barnhizer to take care of the ball on Thursday as to keep its three leading scorers fresh for all forty minutes.
Leach deserves special emphasis here. Northeastern met the Fairfield transfer with a trap as soon as he crossed half court twice in the first two minutes and forced two backcourt violations. Leach, who was not the primary ball-handler in Fairfield, looked hesitant and altogether lost when faced with pressure.
If Leach can learn from those early mistakes and brave Baldwin Jr. to consistently take the ball up the court, he opens up a burgeoning Wildcat transition offense and allows Martinelli and Barnhizer to excel in all phases of the game. If not, Northwestern fans better hope that their big two spent the summer running up hills.
Keep Ty Berry hot from three
Berry has now been “back” at least three times so far this season after tearing his meniscus last February.
The first resurgence came against Iowa. After an especially poor run of games against Pepperdine, Butler and UNLV where he went a combined 1-of-10 from three, Berry helped to erase a 17 point deficit with five made threes before Josh Dix turned into Keyser Soze for a seventh of a second. Berry went quiet again against Illinois, failing to register a point and ceding minutes to Mullins in the clutch.
But sure enough, he was back again against Georgia Tech, contributing three triples in a dominant NU win — before fading in the background a game later against DePaul.
Coach Collins woke Berry up for a third time against Northeastern on Sunday. Collins cut the fifth year a new one after a poor first ten minutes. Berry would finish that one with a season-high 23 points and a stellar 6-for-8 from behind the arc. Perhaps more importantly, he tied his season high with three steals. Berry’s eight steals in his last three games are the most in any three game stretch this season. This time, Ty may be back for good.
CBS Sports’ Jon Rothstein outlined Berry’s importance in bright red sharpie ahead of the Northeastern game. Northwestern is 37-11 when Berry scores ten or more points since he arrived in Evanston five years ago. The ‘Cats have made their living inside the arc successfully to this point in the season and were able to keep pace with Kasparas Jakucionis’s three ball behind stout defense and efficient twos. But a healthy, confident Ty Berry raises the offense’s floor exponentially. When Iowa went catatonic from three and Northwestern had to play catch-up, it was Berry who did much of the heavy lifting.
Penn State is not as dynamic of a team from three — the Nittany Lions took a full thirty minutes to hit their first triple against Penn on Sunday. Yet, if the Nittany Lions get hot — or if the Northwestern offense starts as slow as it did on Sunday — an effective Ty Berry could define whether or not Northwestern will be able to keep pace.
Keep Big Matt out of foul trouble early
Despite its struggles from three, Penn State won Sunday’s matchup with Penn 86-66 by outmuscling the Quakers underneath. The Nittany Lions outscored Penn 52-20 in the painted area. Baldwin Jr. was just 5-of-13 from the field, but he finished with 23 behind a 12-of-12 showing from the line.
Baldwin Jr.’s line against Purdue is even more ridiculous. The senior guard has a little James Harden to him. Baldwin Jr. made just two shots from the field in the win over the Boilermakers, but he led Penn State in scoring with another 12-of-12 performance from the line, willing the Nittany Lions to a huge resumé-building victory.
Northwestern must defend the interior on Thursday to get a win, and it all starts with Matt Nicholson. Nicholson is an exponentially better paint defender than fellow big Luke Hunger, he and fouls at a much lesser rate (2.6 fouls per 36 minutes vs. Hunger’s 4.3). Northwestern needs its premier center to avoid any dumb fouls early. If the game is tight in the second half, Collins cannot have reservations playing Big Matt.