With the blown lead against Nebraska still fresh, Northwestern now turns its focus to the Buckeyes.
Northwestern has officially and painfully entered the “playing for pride” portion of the season.
For those like myself who were clinging onto hope for a stretch run to the tournament — I blame a pre-Four Nations viewing of Miracle on Ice for any outlandish comments made after K.J. Windham’s fourth three against Oregon — the second half of the Nebraska loss was a back-handed slap back to reality. There will be no late-season push, no NC State-style run through the Big Ten tournament. Northwestern would be lucky to win just one game in Indianapolis.
The ‘Cats have a chance to respond tomorrow night in Columbus where they will face an Ohio State team that is positioned squarely on the bubble. The Buckeyes currently sit around the 9/10 line according to most bracketologists (including InsideNU’s Patrick Winograd), and head coach Jake Diegler has to be treating tomorrow’s matchup as a must-win game.
For Northwestern, a win would go a long way toward earning a spot in the Big Ten tournament and potentially in another postseason competition that could provide some valuable experience as sights turn towards 2025-26.
Here’s how Northwestern can play spoiler against the Buckeyes:
Win the hustle stats
Northwestern is never one to win pretty, but the path to victory has grown increasingly gnarly in recent weeks. The USC game especially was an exercise in the smash-mouth, “I want it more than you do” basketball that the ‘Cats will have to play if they are to upset Ohio State.
Northwestern shot 40.9% from the field to USC’s 51% and 31.6% from behind the arc to USC’s 50%. You want to know why Northwestern won that game? Rebounds, rebounds and more rebounds. The ‘Cats out-physicaled USC in the paint, racking up 43 boards to USC’s 27 with a ridiculous 23 of those rebounds coming on offense.
The first half against Nebraska followed a similar pattern as Northwestern out-rebounded the Cornhuskers 29 to 11 on the way to a 17-point lead despite shooting just 36.8% from the field. It’s hard to quantify hustle, but stats like that come pretty close.
Ohio State is a pretty average rebounding team, sitting at 10th in the Big Ten with 34.7 boards per game. Yet the Buckeyes are well below average when it comes to allowing second-chance opportunities. According to Cbbanalytics.com, Ohio State sits at the 16th percentile nationally in second-chance points per game and at the 10th percentile in terms of the percentage of points allowed that come from offensive rebounds.
Northwestern’s path to victory runs through the offensive glass.
Avoid the scoring slumps
Northwestern’s blown lead against Nebraska can be boiled down into two separate four-minute-long stretches in the second half where Northwestern went without a basket.
The ‘Cats led 50-32 with 15:31 to play in the second half. By the next time they scored four minutes later, Nebraska had cut the lead to seven. Less than two minutes later, Northwestern went cold yet again, missing six straight shots and turning the ball over three times until Nebraska had tied the game at 54 with 5:35 left in the game.
Northwestern has suffered from these extended slumps in just about every game it has played in the last month, and I’d argue that much of the onus falls on Nick Martinelli. The junior forward leads the Big Ten in points per game and is undoubtedly a prolific scorer, but he needs to find ways to avoid these quiet stretches that have killed Northwestern as of late. Martinelli has shown improvement as a passer, but his playmaking has not yet transcended the post double-team that defenses have employed to stop him.
Play the kids
K.J. Windham didn’t play great against Nebraska. A game after his 20-point explosion against Oregon, the freshman guard went 0-of-7 from the field and fouled out in 18 minutes (no turnovers though!).
Who cares?
Windham should see the floor early and often tomorrow night, as should Angelo Ciaravino. These final five games are incredibly valuable opportunities for Northwestern’s two freshmen to gain experience playing in the Big Ten.
More importantly, Ciaravino and Windham are winning basketball players. Ciaravino made the most of his 13 minutes against Nebraska to the tune of six points, five rebounds (four of which came on offense) and two steals. He is a force of energy on the floor with real athleticism that gives him the tools to be an elite Big Ten defender. Windham single-handedly willed Northwestern back into the Oregon game, and he continues to improve as a ball-handler and a distributor — two areas where Northwestern desperately needs help without Jalen Leach.
Play. The. Kids.