Northwestern must find a way to get by a red-hot Michigan State side that has won its last eight.
Northwestern needs this one badly.
After an 0-2 road trip that saw the ‘Cats tumble out of the bubble, Northwestern could use some trademark Welsh-Ryan devil magic to get back on track against a Michigan State team that has been taking heads in the Big Ten.
Bart Torvik has Northwestern’s tournament chances at just 20%, its lowest point since the ‘Cats met the business end of known baby-hater Josh Dix. The Purdue game wasn’t even close. Northwestern still has 16 more games to play in the Big Ten, but a 1-4 start could prove too tough a hill to climb for a squad that will likely need at least 10 wins during conference play to make up a for a lackluster non-conference resume.
Backs against the wall. Haters loud. Front teeth on the floor.
Here’s how Northwestern can get it done on Sunday.
Rebound, rebound, rebound.
Northwestern got killed on the glass against Purdue. Rebounding has never been a strength for Matt Nicholson, but Northwestern’s resident seven-footer got caught ball-watching against Trey Kaufman-Renn and the Boilermakers. Luke Hunger came down with three agile offensive rebounds but didn’t record a single board on the defensive glass in 17 minutes.
Michigan State has been phenomenal on the glass so far this season. Its 41.3 rebounds per game are second only to Illinois in the Big Ten. 12.4 of those boards come on the offensive glass, also good for second in the conference.
Northwestern has leaned heavily on Brooks Barnhizer for rebounds given the unique profile of its two centers, but Barnhizer will have his work cut out for him given the depth of Michigan State’s big men. Jaxon Kohler leads the conference in boards per 36 minutes by a full two rebounds with 15.2. Szymon Zapala makes Michigan State one of two teams in the conference with two guys who average more than 10. Shooting guard Jaden Akins is one of the better rebounding guards in the conference.
Northwestern was able to match Illinois on the glass in its overtime win in November. The ‘Cats will likely have to do the same against Michigan State on Sunday.
Avoid foul trouble
Northwestern’s sordid relationship with Big Ten officiating has been well documented, but much of its foul trouble has been self-inflicted.
Chris Collins knows this. The typically verbose head coach was uncharacteristically measured in his assessment of the officiating after Penn State shot 24 more free throws than his Wildcats in Northwestern’s Jan. 5 loss to the Nittany Lions.
“They’re not playing any freshmen,” said Collins of Penn State, “They’re grown men, they’re driving with force and putting you in a position to put your bodies and hands on them. We were fouling too much…we have to be smarter.”
Michigan State is second to only Penn State in the conference in free throw attempts per game at 23.4. The Spartans are also a full seven percentage points better than Penn State from the line, and their 82% clip is good for second in the Big Ten as well.
Michigan State is the worst three-point shooting team in the Big Ten by a wide margin and makes most of its living in the paint. Northwestern must be more disciplined in the interior than it was against Penn State, regardless of whether or not you think the officiating in that game was fair.
Let the kids play
Northwestern has often looked sluggish out of the gate this season, but until last Sunday, the ‘Cats had always been able to claw themselves back into games. Ty Berry shot Northwestern back in the game against Iowa after his guys found themselves trailing by 17 in the first half. Butler and Northeastern both accumulated double-digit leads in the first 10 minutes during their respective matchups against the Wildcats, and Northwestern fought its way back before halftime in both games. The ‘Cats led at the 10 minute mark against Penn State after the Nittany Lions scored the first eight.
Purdue was having none of it. The Boilermakers stormed out to a 7-0 lead and let Northwestern within one possession just once after tip-off. With Barnhizer and Martinelli struggling, Northwestern didn’t find a drip of offensive continuity until Angelo Ciaravino checked in with five minutes to play in the half.
Collins cannot be nearly as slow to play his freshman forward against the Spartans. Michigan State led 16-1 on Thursday against Washington. Washington hit its first field goal with 9:35 to play in the first haIf. If Martinelli and Barnhizer start slow, Ciaravino must be one of the first guys off the bench.
I’d argue that Collins should open up his rotation regardless of whether the ‘Cats play a good first five minutes. Michigan State is one of, if not the deepest team in the Big Ten. Tom Izzo has ran a ten-man rotation throughout most of Michigan State’s first 15 games, and his fresh-legged Spartans have led the country in transition offense. No Spartan averages more than 26.5 minutes per game. Martinelli and Barnhizer each average over 36.
Some Windham and Ciaravino minutes could go a long way in ensuring that Northwestern keeps up for all 40 minutes.