Three keys for Northwestern against Oregon

The ‘Cats will look to get back on track against a reeling Oregon team.

After a hard-fought loss to Washington, Northwestern looks to salvage a win on its West Coast trip. It will be a challenge with Jalen Leach out for the season with a torn ACL—just weeks after Brooks Barnhizer was also lost for the year. Missing two key contributors makes an already difficult task even steeper.

Oregon has had a rollercoaster season. The Ducks started strong in non-conference play, notching impressive wins over No. 2 Alabama and No. 8 Texas A&M. They boast seven Quad 1 victories but have hit a major slump, dropping five straight games and sitting at 5-8 in Big Ten play.

For Northwestern to pull off a shorthanded road win, three key factors will be crucial.

Control the tempo

Oregon doesn’t play at a blistering pace, but with a 68.3 adjusted tempo on KenPom, the Ducks are in the upper half of college basketball. Northwestern, on the other hand, sits near the bottom with a 64.2 tempo. The Wildcats are already adept at slowing the game down, and that will be crucial in this matchup. Keeping the score low and forcing Oregon into a half-court game will give Northwestern its best chance.

Offensively, the ‘Cats have limited options, and defenses are keying in on Nick Martinelli as the primary scorer. However, Ty Berry has provided a solid scoring boost, especially in the last eight games, and Justin Mullins has stepped up as a legitimate three-point threat over the last two contests. Their contributions will be critical to generating enough offense.

For Oregon, point guard Jackson Shelstad brings speed and will push the tempo whenever possible. The sophomore leads the Ducks with 12.9 points per game while adding 3.1 rebounds and 2.7 assists, shooting 38.1% from three. While his assist numbers aren’t eye-popping, he has the ball in his hands often and looks to speed up the game. Northwestern will need to be disciplined in transition defense to prevent Oregon from controlling the pace and getting easy buckets.

Ball movement

Losing your top two playmakers is never easy. With Barnhizer and Leach — who combined for 7.6 assists per game — out, Northwestern’s offense faces a major adjustment. Much of the attack previously ran through Leach setting up Nick Martinelli and Barnhizer, but now, with Jordan Clayton at the helm, things will look different. To his credit, Clayton impressed in his season debut, dishing out five assists.

Still, there were stretches where the offense stalled with the ball stopping too often. One way to counter this could be for Chris Collins to call more structured sets on most possessions to keep the ball moving. Some fans have called on Martinelli to become a better distributor, and while improving his passing will be an important next step, he has already made significant strides this season.

When the ‘Cats move the ball well, the offense looks significantly smoother — a good indication is how often Northwestern finds Matthew Nicholson slipping to the rim for an easy dunk. Avoiding too much one-on-one play and keeping the ball moving will be crucial as they adjust to these lineup changes.

Heart

The season has taken a tough turn for Northwestern, with Barnhizer ruled out for the season and Leach suffering a torn ACL. However, if there’s one thing ‘Cats fans know about this team, it’s that they won’t back down—they’ll fight hard every game.

Oregon has a much deeper roster than Northwestern, which gives them a significant edge, especially after NU’s recent injuries. The Ducks have six players averaging at least 7.6 points per game, including standout center Nate Bittle, who is putting up 12.5 points per game. They also have multiple double-digit scorers in TJ Bamba, Brandon Angel and Keeshawn Barthelemy.

With limited depth, Northwestern will need to slow the pace and control possessions to stay competitive. The odds may not be in their favor, but expect this team to keep battling and leave everything on the court.