Stick Season, Week Nine: Leave no doubt

Upsets? Don’t know her.

This week’s Stick Season column will be a fun one. With No. 3 Northwestern blowing out No. 5 Johns Hopkins 17-5 and Rutgers 15-6, and nearly sweeping the Big Ten and IWLCA Weekly Awards, there’s plenty to celebrate as the Wildcats inch closer to the Big Ten regular-season title.

Since starting this column, I’ve been asked several times whether I’ve made a Noah Kahan pun, as it shares a name with the artist’s 2022 album Stick Season. The answer has always been “no” — until now.

Northwestern is playing its most dominant stretch of lacrosse this season. It will go far this postseason if it keeps up this pace, just like Kahan’s song “You’re Gonna Go Far.” (Was that a good pun? Not really. But it got the job done, and that’s all that matters).

Back to lacrosse. My point from the previous paragraph still stands — the Wildcats look phenomenal, a sentiment bolstered by their blowout win against Hopkins. I had concerns coming into the game, as the Blue Jays were a top 15-ranked offense and Northwestern had yet to beat an attack that strong. However, the Wildcats smothered that offense, allowing just five goals to hand the Blue Jays their first Big Ten loss of the season. Now, NU remains the only undefeated team standing in the conference.

Northwestern carried momentum from Baltimore to New Jersey to face a Rutgers team ranked in the middle of the Big Ten pack. Except for a third-quarter scoring drought, that game fared similarly to the previous one, where NU’s chances of victory were never questioned.

Much discussion about Northwestern this season has centered around what it has lost, but what gets stuck in translation is what this year’s team is doing better than 2024. And one of those things is the ability to get sound wins against teams it’s favored against.

Yes, Northwestern suffered losses at the hands of No. 2 Boston College and No. 1 North Carolina. However, it can handily win while playing as the favorite. It forced a running clock on No. 5 Hopkins and No. 9 Maryland, beat No. 7 Syracuse on the road by four and took down other ranked teams like No. 22 USC and No. 25 Notre Dame. Only the Notre Dame game, a 13-10 win by Northwestern, felt “too close for comfort” at times.

Meanwhile, last season, Northwestern had several games against lower-ranked teams that were closer than they should have been. It was upset by No. 8 Notre Dame and a then-unranked Penn State and had wins against No. 4 Michigan, No. 5 Syracuse, No. 10 Denver and No. 20 Colorado decided by five or fewer goals.

Yes, one could argue that the NCAA was all-around stronger last season and that it’s harder to be upset-prone as the No. 1 ranked team and defending champions. However, Northwestern’s improved ability to leave no doubt against the teams it should beat this season is a super encouraging sign.

All good things

Many of my previous columns have focused on specific aspects of the team. But with Northwestern performing so well this past week, it felt right to talk about everything all at once. That was reflected in the awards too, as the Wildcats swept IWLCA Player of the Week honors and nearly did the same within the Big Ten.

First off, Northwestern is back to its winning ways on the draw after some struggles against Penn State, Maryland and to some extent North Carolina, It held Rutgers and Johns Hopkins to just seven draw controls each while gaining over double its opponents’ total in that same category. Senior Samantha Smith, as she typically is, was a big part of Northwestern’s draw success, having now gone three consecutive games with 12+ draw controls.

The attack has also made progress. Taylor has dipped in efficiency since the start of the season (she’s shot below .500 in four of her last five games), but I don’t think that’s entirely bad. For one, she’s taking more shots — her 12 shots against Hopkins and Rutgers were the most she’s taken in a game since the season opener. Secondly, she’s finding ways to score without the free position, a shot where she’s gone 1-for-5 over the past week. However, she still managed to have eight non-free-position goals in that same period.

Yes, it’s better if Taylor eventually gets out of her free-position slump, as the shot is one of her greatest weapons. However, it may benefit her in the near future to score her goals without it, diversifying her range in-game. She also had her best presence this season as a facilitator against Hopkins, tallying four assists. Ultimately, being a high-scoring, high-volume shooter who can make things happen anywhere bodes better for postseason play.

Meanwhile, graduate student Niki Miles is coming into her own, going five consecutive games with two or more goals. Senior Lucy Munro has also been super valuable to the team since being added to the starting lineup on March 16, going three straight with two-plus goals, including a hat trick against Hopkins.

And of course, Northwestern can’t be praised for holding its opponents to five or six goals without crediting the defense. Senior Samantha White and graduate student Jane Hansen are stalwarts, while freshman Mary Carroll’s recent numbers have her up there too. Graduate student goalkeeper Delaney Sweitzer has now recorded an above .500 save percentage in five of her six last games. She’s ranked first in the Big Ten for goals allowed per game (7.98) and posts a formidable 51.9% save percentage.

Bracketology

With the postseason on the horizon, we should discuss where Northwestern stands.

The Wildcats are the favorite to be the No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament. They are expected to win the Big Ten and have beaten every team on their schedule besides the two teams ranked higher than them. Currently, USA Lacrosse Magazine’s latest bracketology has them as the third seed and the automatic Big Ten NCAA tournament bid.

However, it’s not so simple. The NCAA RPI rankings have Northwestern in fourth, behind Princeton. And while Princeton is ranked No. 6 in the IWLCA polls, the Ivy League side has a real case for the three spot. The Tigers have a 9-1 record, with ranked wins over No. 8 Yale, No. 16 Loyola and No. 21 Harvard. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are 11-2. Northwestern’s two losses look “better” than Princeton’s sole loss to No. 11 Virginia at home (let alone its one-goal wins against unranked Delaware and Cornell), but the record differential still counts.

But the real issue lies in the fact that the Ivy League could be more competitive than the Big Ten this season. With the exception of the 81st-ranked Cornell, the other seven Ivy League teams are ranked top 30 in the RPI, while five teams are ranked top 20. Meanwhile, the Big Ten only has five top 30 teams and three top 20 teams. The only thing that the latter conference has going for it is a higher average ranking of its top three RPI teams (6.67) than the Ivy League’s top three (8.67). Assuming both Northwestern and Princeton win the rest of their in-conference regular season games, there is an argument to be made that Princeton dealt with a more competitive in-conference schedule.

Utlimatley, I still think the committee favors Northwestern. RPI is a factor in tournament seeding, but so are results against common opponents, significant wins and losses and overall strength of schedule. The Wildcats cannot be penalized for playing the two best teams in the country when the Tigers did not, and having significantly more ranked wins and a more impressive margin of victory does mean something.

However, the RPI rankings show is that nothing is guaranteed, and Northwestern sweeping the Big Ten is extremely important if it wants to lock in the third seed. Nabbing a top three seed gives the ‘Cats an advantage of a first-round bye, while a top four seed allows it to host the opening two rounds.

Weekly Awards

Player of the Week — Samantha White, senior defender: White put up a ridiculous defensive stat line against Rutgers, tallying seven ground balls, five caused turnovers and two draw controls. She also had three ground balls, a goal and an assist in her homecoming game against Hopkins.

Play of the Week: Sophomore Taylor Lapointe is becoming one of the best shooters on the team, as she showed with this backward sideways shot.

What’s Next?

Northwestern returns home on Sunday at 1 p.m. CDT to face Oregon, which is currently 0-6 in Big Ten play. The game won’t be very competitive, but it will be historic as the first lacrosse game played in the modified Northwestern Medecine Field at Martin Stadium. Martin Stadium during the spring is already the best place on campus in my opinion, and the added touches will make it even better.