Evaluating Northwestern’s potential starting center.
Northwestern fans are going to miss Big Matt Nicholson.
The Wildcats’ center rotation this year will be Arrinten Page and Cade Bennerman, with Tre Singleton moonlighting as a five-man in the event of foul trouble. NU fans may have had their issues with Nicholson, but he was a sturdy, dependable piece who anchored great defenses and was a sneakily effective offensive player. Page and Bennerman will have a hard time replicating Nicholson’s impact.
That’s not to say Page doesn’t have his good qualities. Although he played just nine minutes per game this season, the sophomore was one of the best defenders on a disappointing Cincinnati team. He struggled offensively overall, but flashed some impressive skills. I’ll be breaking down film from a loss to Kansas, which was one of Page’s best outings of the year. He scored nine points, grabbed seven rebounds and blocked two shots—all of which tied or set season highs for Big 12 games.
Offense
Let’s start with the more exciting offensive side of the ball.
Page scored just 3.5 points per game this season. However, his 23% usage rate when he was on the floor speaks to a guy who was very involved on the ball when he got in the game. In this clip, we see Page showing off a post bag and some soft touch. He finds himself matched up against KJ Adams, a smaller wing but one of the best defenders in the Big 12. Page recognizes the size mismatch and keeps the ball well away from Adams’ prying hands. He shows off his light feet with a spin move that he pulls out quite often before a sweet jump hook/push shot. While Nicholson was an important piece to Northwestern head coach Chris Collins’ offense, he rarely showcased any isolation scoring ability, so this clip is a welcome sight for ‘Cats fans.
Page shows off his basketball IQ and athleticism with some slick off-the-ball work. He goes to set a screen but slips once Cincy gets the switch it wants, with Hunter Dickinson on a guard. Page rolls hard but doesn’t receive a pass, so he fades to the corner. But once he sees his man overcommit to contesting the initial shot, Page crashes the glass and grabs the loose rebound before slamming it home. Despite averaging just 2.3 rebounds a night, Page’s rebounding rates were slightly higher on both ends of the floor than Nicholson’s. Northwestern was surprisingly one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the Big Ten last season, and Page should be beneficial for continuing that trend.
Unfortunately, way too many of Page’s offensive possessions look like this. Based on the Kansas game, Page appears to be allergic to making contact with a defender while screening. Certainly a disturbing trait for a center to have. He loves to either ghost or slip a screen and seems to have little patience for taking a shot to get a teammate open. Most of his attempts to screen in this contest were completely ineffective as a result. You can be sure that Collins won’t be afraid to rip into his big man if this worrying trend continues. Additionally, Page’s roll on this play is more like a float. He opens up after the ghost screen, but instead of rolling hard and looking for a pass, he just shuffles in the general direction of the rim. By the time he gets where he needs to go, the ball is on the opposite side of the floor. Even though he looks open, his tardiness getting to the rim allows Dickinson to recover in a timely manner. Page has the skills to compete on the offensive end, but possessions like these caused him to have an atrocious -1.6 Offensive Box Plus/Minus according to Bart Torvik. For contrast, Nicholson’s was 1.1, Keenan Fitzmorris’ was -0.9 and Luke Hunger rocked a -2.6 total.
Before I show this final offensive clip, I would like to preface it by noting Page shot 4-of-9 from three-point land this season. So don’t get too excited. I’ll leave this here, though.
Defense
The defensive film is much kinder to Page.
Page doesn’t necessarily stand out on this possession, but I included it because he gets put into a pick-and-roll here, and it’s important to discuss how he’ll be used in the most important defensive action in the sport. Page is a mobile center which is crucially important in Collins’ system. In the wing dribble handoff action on this play, Page is in a shallow drop coverage. Most bigs who play in a drop system fall back deeper than this in a ball screen. Page has superior mobility to your average college center, so he feels comfortable in a shallow drop because he can keep up with a quicker guard. In Northwestern’s defense, he will presumably be asked to hard hedge like Nicholson made a living doing. Page’s ability to move should lend itself to a very good hard hedge. Page’s athleticism both laterally and vertically (stay tuned) means he is a near-perfect fit for the defensive system employed by Collins, Chris Lowery and the rest of the Wildcat coaching staff.
Another example of Page’s mobility comes here. He’s in help-side defense in the paint, but a handoff forces him to pull out of the shadow of the basket. Page ends up guarding powerful guard AJ Storr in the middle of the floor and impressively keeps him in front before getting a piece of Storr’s jumper. Off the rebound, Page gets a hand on the ball and nearly saves it to his team. Page is listed at 6-foot-11, and you don’t often see guys his size moving like this in the open floor. While he gets pulled out of position a bit more than you’d like to see, the traits are tantalizing on the defensive end.
Maybe most importantly for the Big Ten, Page has the strength to go with his length. For most of the game, Page was tasked with guarding an All-Big 12 (and former All-Big Ten) center in Dickinson. This was one of the few possessions where Dickinson decided to go directly at Page. Dickinson catches the ball on the right block and tries to isolate against the Cincinnati sophomore. Page recognizes that the crafty Dickinson wants to get to his lethal left-hand jump hook and takes away the angle. Dickinson attempts to bump his way to the cup, but Page stands his ground and rebuffs the bigger Dickinson. The lefty is forced to pick up his dribble quickly and forces up an awkward shot that misses everything. In the Big Ten, where dominant center play is a given, Page will need to stand his ground against guys like Trey Kaufman-Renn, Aday Mara and Tomislav Ivisic, just to name a few.
Again, I want to leave you with one last tantalizing piece of Page’s potential. Don’t overreact, but this is certainly eye-opening.
Page has a lot to work on, and I’m not completely sold on his ability to be a quality Big Ten starting center. However, the potential is undeniable, and if Collins and company can channel his athleticism to anchor another elite defense, he will more than suffice.