Northwestern’s loss to Butler shows just how broken the offense is

The objective of the game is to put the ball in the basket. The Wildcats can’t do that right now.

There’s no point in burying the lede, so I’ll just come right out with it.

There are some Northwestern fans who are understandably very upset with this call. I do not blame them. That is a questionable (at best) call that was the difference between a one-point deficit and a potential one-point lead. It is a decision that many fans probably feel sealed Northwestern’s defeat. (And for those fans who support both the Wildcats and Chicago Bears, I am deeply sorry for the suffering that was inflicted upon you yesterday. I hope the rest of your Thanksgiving festivities were more joyful.)

But… that call didn’t end this game. Remember, even after the miracle heave from Barnhizer was waved off, Northwestern still had a chance to tie it. Here’s how THAT opportunity went.

That is why Northwestern lost. More specifically, the Wildcats’ 22-of-61 shooting mark (which included an absolutely inexcusable 7-of-14 clip on layups) is why they lost. And to examine that, we unfortunately have to start with Nick Martinelli.

The junior forward has lit up scoreboards throughout the young season. Heading into Thursday’s slate, Martinelli was fifth in the nation in points per game. But his net-scorching, 23.8 points-per-game ways abandoned him on Thursday in Tempe. Martinelli missed 12 of his 15 shots, including six of his seven shots that were logged as layups or tip-ins. He tallied just seven points — the first time he was held to single digits all season.

But of course, the Glenview great has a lot on his plate this year. Considering he didn’t make his first start until Feb. 11 of this year, it’s not shocking the junior forward is struggling with the attention befitting a top-two player on a Big Ten team. Much like at the Thanksgiving table, if you can’t deal with everything on your plate, you better hope an older relative is there to take care of business and clear out the rest.

Unfortunately, Ty Berry has been pulling a season-long disappearing act. Yes, he’s coming off a tough lower-body injury and a grueling rehab process. Even with all that, his 5-for-17 clip in the last three games is far from impressive. The perfect summation of Berry’s season came with a hair over six and a half minutes left in the game. With the Wildcats down four, the guard canned a three-pointer and drew a foul. With a chance to tie things up and completely flip momentum, his free throw clanged harmlessly off the front rim.

Hey, speaking of Northwestern guards missing a lot, how’s Jalen Leach doing? The answer: not great. Leach has scored 103 points in the first six games of the 2024-25 campaign. A whopping 36 of them (34.9%) have come from the charity stripe. That’s a prime James Harden-level stat, except for one problem: the Fairfield transfer has struggled to consistently put up Harden-level production from the field. He’s shooting just 41% from the field and 33% from beyond the arc.

To make matters worse, the man who is ostensibly at Northwestern to play point guard is only living up to the first part of that name: point. Leach has tallied just 15 dimes on the year, good for a mark of 0.07 per minute. Here’s the list of guys on Northwestern’s roster who average more: K.J. Windham, Brooks Barnhizer, Angelo Ciaravino and incredibly, Luke Hunger.

But I don’t entirely blame Leach for this. He only averaged three assists per game last year at Fairfield, and that was on far more touches than he’s getting on a much more talent-heavy Northwestern squad. Leach’s low assist numbers are a symptom of a far deeper disease: Northwestern’s offense is broken. The Wildcats made a total of 22 field goals Thursday night against Butler. Only 10 were assisted.

And that’s the continuation of a rather disturbing trend. Since Northwestern’s 22-assist performance against Lehigh in the season opener, the Wildcats have cracked 15 assists as a team just once. Heading into Thursday’s contest, Northwestern averaged 15 assists per game, a number almost solely propped up by that Lehigh mark. Remove that game, and in the six contests since, the Wildcats are averaging a putrid 13 assists per contest. As of Thursday morning, that mark would put them in a tie for 241st nationally — right next to Prairie View and UNC Asheville.

And the scoring is almost as grim. Northwestern has now failed to crack 70 points in three of its last four contests. The team’s shooting percentage has also dipped below 45% in three of the last four as well. Against Butler, the offense was quite literally dead on arrival in the first 12 minutes (eight total points in that span).

The only Wildcats who stepped up in this one were Brooks Barnhizer and Matt Nicholson. Barnhizer dropped 24 points on 7-for-15 shooting and added seven rebounds, while Nicholson scored a season-high 14 points and added five boards. For Nicholson, it’s his highest point total since Northwestern’s stunning road victory over Indiana on Feb. 18. With Martinelli struggling to find his shot, Nicholson played the perfect second banana to Barnhizer on Thursday.

But even that duo’s success reveals deep cracks in the foundation of the Wildcats’ offense. Of their 38 points, 17 came from the free throw line. Northwestern has become increasingly reliant on charity from the stripe to keep its offense above water. In fact, the Wildcats made only one more field goal than they did free throws.

So, on the days where Nick Martinelli can’t shoot and the backcourt continues to struggle, it seems like Northwestern is going to be reliant on free throws and second chances on offense. That’s not a recipe for success by any stretch of the imagination. According to KenPom, the Big Ten currently has seven of the top 30 teams in the nation in defensive rating. If the Wildcats want to make it back to March Madness, then the offense has to be fixed — immediately. Otherwise, the hopes for postseason glory will disappear faster than Brooks Barnhizer’s joy after his miracle shot was overturned.