The training wheels are off for good, and the sophomore is ready for her moment.
As basketball season creeps ever closer, Inside NU continues its look at the Northwestern women’s basketball team for 2024-25. After we looked into the reserves earlier this week, it’s time to take a deep dive into the key contributors. First up is Casey Harter.
Who is she?
Sophomore; guard; 5-foot-11; from Harleysville, Pennsylvania
2023-24 stats
30 games, 16 starts, 24.0 minutes per game, 5.3 points per game, 2.9 rebounds per game, 2.3 assists per game, 38.0% FG, 33.3% 3PT, 73.7% FT
2023-24 review
Harter arrived on campus after a stellar career in high school, which included a Colonial Conference Championship against fierce Pennsylvania competition. It didn’t take long for her to earn coach Joe McKeown’s trust, as she ended up playing 25 minutes in just her fifth collegiate game. Consecutive scoring eruptions of 12 and 14 points against Belmont and Loyola Chicago only improved Harter’s standing in a relatively thin guard room, and she made her first collegiate start in early December at Maryland.
Harter’s stint as a starter began with some scorching scoring — double-digit outputs in three of her first four games in the starting five — but tailed off as opponents adjusted to her and got more film to study. Harter also clearly took a step back in the hierarchy of offensive options as well. After taking 11 shots against Bradley in mid-December, she wouldn’t take more than eight shots in a game the rest of the season.
As December creeped into January, Harter’s scoring average continued to drop, and by the time February started, it became clear that Big Ten play was too much of a challenge to face as a starter. Harter’s last start of the season was against Purdue on Feb. 14, and an 0-for-5 performance was the nail in the coffin for her starting role. After being re-relegated to the bench, Harter took just 17 shots over her final six games of the season. However, she was still a key part of the second unit offense.
Strengths
Harter rates especially strongly in three-point percentage and various rate metrics (such as assists per 40 minutes and rebounds per 40 minutes), although this is likely due to her reduced scoring load over the latter half of the season. One obvious strength though, is Harter’s ability to get out and run in transition. She scored 34 fast break points last year, third on the team, and 41.5% of her points last year were in the paint. This scoring profile suggests that in a larger role, Harter could find success as a drive and kick player as well as a supporting runner on fast breaks.
Aside from shooting, Harter also proved to be both an able and willing passer. Despite coming into the ultra-tough Big Ten as a freshman, Harter excelled passing the ball, with 24.3% of her possessions ending in an assist. Her assist to turnover ratio of 1.73 was also the second highest on the team, behind only Melannie Daley. Harter was also an excellent spacer, canning 33.3% of her attempts from deep (admittedly, she did only take 33).
On the defensive side, Harter was an above-average rebounder for her position, and also tallied an impressive amount of blocks considering both her minutes and position. This tenacity and scrappiness meant that McKeown could go to Harter as a wing when he needed the team to go small. The lineup consisting of Caroline Lau, Daley, Harter, Paige Mott and Caileigh Walsh produced a defensive rating of 84.6, the best mark of any Northwestern lineup.
Weaknesses
As mentioned earlier, Harter basically stopped shooting the ball unless absolutely necessary in the closing stretch of the 2023-24 season. Whether it was due to a lack of opportunity or lack of desire, that’s something that will need to be fixed in a Big Ten chock-full of great scoring. The key for Harter will come in improving her efficiency inside the arc, which dragged down most of her overarching efficiency metrics a great deal.
CBB Analytics
As evidenced by this graph from cbbanalytics.com, Harter really struggled in the paint. When she wasn’t right by the hoop, she converted just 25% of her shots in the lane — an area where the Division 1 average is around 38%. And for a solid three-point shooter, she curiously struggled on corner threes, converting just three of her 13 attempts from that region of the court.
CBB Analytics
Looking at where most of Harter’s shots came from also reveals quite a bit about why her shooting percentage dipped as it did. Despite the lane being by far her least efficient area of the floor, Harter took over a quarter of her shots from that range. And conversely, despite converting 40% of her above the break three-pointers (8-for-20), only 12.7% of Harter’s shots came from that area. If she can turn those shots in the lane into either layups or midrange looks (which she was impressively adept at for a freshman), then Harter’s efficiency should go up significantly in her sophomore campaign.
Expectations
With Maggie Pina’s departure, Harter will likely take another step up in the guard rotation. While Caroline Lau is firmly entrenched at the starting point guard and Melannie Daley will likely start alongside Kyla Jones, there is an opportunity for Harter to be a key asset if McKeown elects to go small again this season. Hailey Weaver certainly provides more pop scoring and was a better defender last year, but McKeown may value Harter’s passing and ball control, especially in Big Ten play.
As mentioned earlier, Harter cutting out the inefficient areas of her scoring attack could lead to a big boost in points. And with a year of experience under her belt, the sophomore will likely show significant strides both defensively and in terms of getting to the free throw line. She finished fifth on the team last year in minutes per game for a reason — Joe McKeown trusts her to handle herself in Big Ten play. That trust will likely showcase itself in Harter receiving most of the backup point guard duties, as well as a lot of minutes when the team needs some extra shooting on the floor.