Sure, the team’s clutch performance was great. But why was it necessary?
In his first ever game as a head coach, Chris Collins took down Eastern Illinois. His 355th game was also a victory over the Panthers, but it was different. The win seemed to be exactly what a Chris Collins team should strive for. Tenacious defensive effort, extra pressure on the boards, working inside out offensively, and letting the experienced scoring guards take the game over late.
“You know you have a winning culture when you win a game like tonight,” Collins said postgame. “Because a lot wasn’t going well, but we still found a way.”
That is indeed admirable, and worthy of praise. The Wildcats trailed by three with under three minutes to go on a night where offense was at a premium. Finding a way in those circumstances is impressive.
But needing to find a way against Eastern Illinois? The team that was 323rd in KenPom heading into Friday night? The Panthers squad that hasn’t broken 42% shooting in a game against a Power Five opponent this year? A team with a rebounding margin of -30 and turnover margin of -5, and you get them at home?
This isn’t the game you should dig deep for. I know, I know. A win is a win, and you are what your record says you are, and all of that. But this isn’t exactly a win that begets more notches in the win column.
“A lot of teams probably would have lost that game tonight,” Collins said.
Like who? The Illinois team that whipped EIU 112-67 in the season opener? The Indiana squad that smothered the Panthers in the second half en route to a 90-55 rout? Northwestern plays those teams in a five-day span in late January. Butler, who Northwestern plays in less than two weeks, smacked Western Michigan (335th in KenPom, 12 spots below EIU) by 20 on Monday.
So, sure. Northwestern didn’t lose this game. But the very fact that sentence needs to be typed is an indictment on the team’s performance. I will freely admit, it is fair to give the Wildcats plaudits for outscoring the Panthers 14-2 over the final eight minutes of game action (including holding EIU scoreless in overtime). That clutch success could be a massive help for the team’s mentality.
“We battled a lot of adversity tonight, and we came together as a group,” Jalen Leach, who had a game-high 27 points in the victory, explained after the game. “I feel like that’s championship DNA…it was a big night for us.”
Sure. Fine. Whatever. But EASTERN ILLINOIS should not be your adversity game. The Big Ten has 12 teams in KenPom’s top 45. THOSE are the games where you’re supposed to battle adversity and come together. The home game against an OVC game shouldn’t be a true test. It should be a pop quiz.
Well, it’s a pop quiz that Northwestern nearly failed. The defense came to play, at least: the Panthers shot just 41% from the field (still a season high against a Division 1 opponent) and missed on 16 of their 19 three-pointers. Eastern Illinois scored just 20 points in the paint and didn’t score on the fast break at all.
“Fortunately, we got a bunch of stops. And we found enough offense down the stretch,” Collins said. “Offense was a real slog tonight, trying to find points…we just said ‘Guys, we gotta dig down.’”
Does that sound like a vote of confidence in this team’s future? Does it sound like a vote of confidence in this team’s present? Northwestern has been out-rebounded in the aggregate this week (-5 against UIC, +5 against Eastern Illinois). The Wildcats have been out-assisted in three straight games. Of course, the passing isn’t the issue — it’s making those open shots.
“I want our guys to be confident shooting the basketball, as long as we’re getting the right looks,” Collins said. “And tonight, it was tough. The ball didn’t go in as much.”
And that’s become a worrying pattern to begin this young season. Ty Berry has hit just six of his last 16 three-pointers. Jalen Leach is six for 18 so far from beyond the arc (though his two makes Friday night were the biggest shots of the game). K.J. Windham, who’s started every game in Brooks Barnhizer’s absence, is just two for 16 from deep. That failure to connect is keeping the offense mired in mud.
“They sold out on Nick [Martinelli], and Nick still found a way to get 16 points,” Collins explained. “They weren’t going to let Nick beat them. Every time he got it, they swarmed him, they trapped him.”
And so far this season, the Wildcats haven’t been able to make teams truly pay for that. The Lehigh game was wonderful, but this is now three straight games that have been within five points in the final two minutes after Northwestern held a double-digit lead in the second half. This team is digging, sure; it’s digging a trench at halftime and hoping the opponents don’t have enough strength to overrun it.
And that’s not sustainable. The way to win against EIU won’t be the way to win against Montana State, in the same way the way to win against Montana State won’t be the way to win against Pepperdine. But the way to win those games has to look cleaner. There’ll be plenty of opportunities this year to find out just how deep the Wildcats can dig. But mid-November shouldn’t be one of them.