You’re going to see a lot of these guys playing on Sundays.
Northwestern looks to keep the winning feeling going this week as it heads to Wrigley Field for the first of two games in The Friendly Confines this season. Only issue, its game is against No. 2 Ohio State. Ahead of Northwestern’s showdown with the Buckeyes on Saturday, we asked Land-Grant Holy Land’s Gene Ross some of our most pressing questions.
Inside NU: Coming off back-to-back huge wins over Penn State and Purdue, Ohio State looks back on track after a disappointing loss at Oregon. What is the vibe right now in Columbus?
Gene Ross: I would say the vibe in Columbus right now is cautiously optimistic. The biggest problem for Ohio State in the loss to Oregon was its defense, and it seems as though steps have been taken to improve on that front.
The Buckeyes’ defensive line has been stale and predictable for the last few seasons, leading to a poor pass rush in big games. Against Penn State and Purdue, defensive coordinator Jim Knowles has gotten a lot more creative with the line and his blitz packages, leading to increased pressure on opposing QBs and a better defense overall as a result.
There is still a nagging thought in the back of peoples’ minds (myself included) that it could all come crashing down when the opponents get tougher. Ohio State still has big games remaining against Indiana and Michigan before a potential rematch with Oregon in the Big Ten title game and then the College Football Playoff.
Ryan Day’s record against top teams is not good, and until he proves he can win the big ones – besides Penn State, apparently – those worries will persist.
INU: The pressure on Ryan Day is serious. If you had to assess how he’s coached this season what grade would you give him and why?
GR: The pressure on Ryan Day is certainly real. The head coach himself has previously stated three major goals for the program each season: beat Michigan, win the Big Ten and win a national title. He has gone 0-3 on those goals for three straight seasons now.
This has been a very different year for Ryan Day, and for the first time as Ohio State’s head coach he has given up the play-calling duties. Chip Kelly was an excellent hire, and the Buckeyes’ offense has looked like a well-oiled machine more often than not with him at the helm.
Overall this season, I’d probably give Day a solid B+. The loss to Oregon on the road was disappointing, and his time management at the end of the game could have ultimately cost the Buckeyes a chance to win. However, I was impressed that the team was able to weather the storm against Penn State after falling behind 10-0 almost immediately before ultimately coming back to win the game.
At the end of the day, nothing he has done to this point will matter if he can’t beat Michigan or win the Big Ten. If Day goes 0-3 on his big three goals again, the season will be looked at as a failure, and his seat will be hotter than ever.
INU: At quarterback, what has Will Howard given this offensive attack that Kyle McCord couldn’t a season ago?
GR: While his stats may not jump off the page, Will Howard has been a tremendous upgrade over Kyle McCord.
Howard is very quietly having about as equally good a season as Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel. Both quarterbacks have thrown for 22 touchdowns with five interceptions while completing around 74% of their passes. Gabriel has about 600 more passing yards than Howard, but Howard is averaging almost a full yard more per attempt and has a better QBR.
Howard has showcased much better decision making than McCord, but the biggest difference between Howard and McCord has been his ability to use his legs. McCord is very much a pocket passer, and with some of the issues Ohio State has had along its offensive line, it was not exactly a recipe for success. The Buckeyes’ offense always seems to run a little smoother with a mobile QB (see: Justin Fields, J.T. Barrett, etc.). Howard has provided a boost with his ability to pick up some tough yards on the ground, especially in the red zone.
INU: There is NFL talent all over this defense. Who are a couple players you expect to cause havoc for Northwestern’s offense on Saturday?
GR: The obvious answer is Caleb Downs. The Alabama transfer isn’t really atop the list in any of the major counting statistics among Ohio State’s defenders, but he is a notable difference maker on a down to down basis. Part of what makes Downs so special is his versatility. The Buckeyes can line him up as a true deep safety, but they will also put him in the middle of the field almost like a middle linebacker or up near the line of scrimmage as an extra pass rusher. He is truly a do-it-all type of player.
A couple of guys who are less flashy but could prove pivotal for Ohio State on Saturday is its stable of defensive tackles, which includes a rotation of Tyleik Williams (who missed the Purdue game with an injury out of precaution but is expected to return against the Wildcats), Kayden McDonald and five-star freshman Eddrick Houston. That position group has been a huge reason why Ohio State ranks No. 6 in the country in stopping the run, allowing less than 100 yards rushing per game.
INU: If you were coaching Northwestern, what’s the recipe to make this game close against the Buckeyes?
GR: I would make it a point to test Ohio State’s cornerbacks early and often. If there is a weak spot on the Buckeyes’ defense, it has been the coverage skills of the defensive backs. Denzel Burke has taken a big step back from years prior, and Davison Igbinson is liable for at least one defensive holding or pass interference penalty per game because of his physical style of play.
Oregon did a ton to get Burke on an island in one-on-one coverage, and it was a major reason why the Ducks were able to score so many points. Ohio State also likes to play its corners pretty far off the ball, especially early in games, which allows a lot of quick hitters underneath. Northwestern would be wise to try and dink and dunk the Buckeyes down the field with short passes, which would also help run time off the clock to keep Ohio State’s offense off the field.
INU: What is your score prediction for the game and why?
GR: I have it 41-6 Ohio State.
Opposing teams have looked to run as much clock as possible on offense to limit Ohio State’s offensive possessions, and I think Northwestern will look to follow that game plan as well. I like a few of these Wildcats’ defensive backs, and I could easily see Will Howard throwing a pick on an attempt to throw the ball deep, as he has struggled to hit guys over the top this season.
That said, I do think Northwestern will have its hands full trying to contain the duo of Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka, and on the other side of the ball I think the Wildcats will have a tough time moving down the field. It is an unfavorable matchup for one of the Big Ten’s worst rushing attacks going up against one of the best rushing defenses in FBS, and if Northwestern falls behind early it could be facing an uphill battle the rest of the afternoon.
It should be a fun atmosphere at Wrigley Field, and I am excited to see how it all plays out. Rest assured, all Ohio State fans will be rooting for Northwestern next weekend when it faces off against Michigan, as victories for both the Wildcats and the Buckeyes over the Wolverines could prevent UM from being bowl eligible.