Can the ‘Cats turn things around in Iowa City?
Looking to beat Iowa for the first time since 2020, Northwestern goes to Iowa City off the heels of a 23-3 loss to Wisconsin last weekend. Ahead of a bout with the Hawkeyes, Black Heart Gold Pants’ Jonah Parker answered our questions.
Inside NU: The biggest question with the Hawkeyes has to be on the offensive side of the football. Iowa has exploded for 30-plus points four times this season, but in moments where Iowa really needs the offense, it’s faded. How worried are you about the consistency of this offense?
Jonah Parker: If you had asked me a week ago, I would have probably given you a somewhat snarky response and brushed things off. A week ago, Iowa was coming off a 40-point outburst and looked like they had turned the corner offensively after finally unlocking the running game even when an opponent set out solely to stop it.
But the wheels officially fell off under the lights in East Lansing on Saturday night and now I think it’s safe to say the fanbase is in meltdown. The issues for this group have been known for a while. QB Cade McNamara is not himself and probably never will be again. After the quad and then knee injuries a year ago, he has come back this year with really poor footwork and a complete apprehension about planting his front foot. The result has been absolutely no downfield passing game and loads of inconsistency throwing the ball.
Kaleb Johnson has been incredible and even when teams load the box, he is going to break at least one long one and finish in the endzone. Ohio State is the only team to truly bottle him up and he still broke loose for 86 yards and a score. His only other game under 100 yards came in Week 1 when he ran for 98 yards and a TD. In the second half.
So he will get his and Iowa will go out of its way to continue feeding him, perhaps at the expense of balance and overall offensive success. The real question is whether the Hawkeyes make a change at QB (former NU QB Brendan Sullivan serves as the redzone QB for Tim Lester’s offense and there is building pressure to give him a chance at starting) and whether they can find anything in the passing game that McNamara can do well consistently.
INU: The Hawkeyes fell short in East Lansing last weekend, losing to Michigan State 32-20. What went wrong for Iowa against the Spartans?
JP: Last weekend was a complete letdown for Iowa fans and something we’ve grown accustomed to over the last, say, 100 years. As I mentioned, we collectively felt pretty good about things post-Washington win with both losses coming to now top-10 teams. But we saw the offense continue to ram its proverbial head into the proverbial wall against the Spartans, who loaded the box with eight to nine guys who all were playing downhill, begging McNamara to throw over the top. When he did, there was some success, but not enough to really put points on the board and the inconsistency was as bad as we’ve seen all year.
Perhaps more concerning was the defense. Through the first six games, the Hawkeyes had been tagged with 38 missed tackles per PFF. They missed 19 on Saturday night. Some of that was due to super senior Sebastian Castro missing the game, but some of it was just really poor form from typically reliable players like Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson.
We’ve known since Week 1 the corner opposite Jermari Harris is a question mark and the Spartans were sure to pick on everyone Iowa put over there, from TJ Hall to Zach Lutmer, while also taking shots at Castro’s replacement, Koen Entringer. The result was one of the worst defensive showings we’ve seen from a Phil Parker defense in close to a decade.
Inside NU: Iowa’s bread and butter is its stout defense. How does this iteration of Iowa’s defense compare to years’ past and who are some X-factors to watch out for?
JP: Yeah, when you choose not to play offense you better be pretty good on defense. Coming into the year, the expectation was this group might be better than a year ago as Iowa’s collective went all in on getting Higgins, Jackson and Castro to forego the NFL and come back for an extra season. Those three have been tremendous, as has Harris.
But the corner opposite Harris is still a serious question mark with Kirk Ferentz indicating at his weekly presser on Tuesday we may even see a true freshman get a shot this weekend. In the back end, former five-star safety Xavier Nwankpa has been suspect and out of position more than we’re used to, leading to a timeshare with Entringer.
Up front, the tackles are a strong suit with Yahya Black and Aaron Graves both absolute monsters who can eat up tackles and create pressure. Iowa doesn’t have a superstar off the edge, but they’ve been able to generate pressure with Deontae Craig, Brian Allen and Ethan Hurkett when they need it.
The X-factor for this group and certainly on Saturday after what we saw a week ago will be the play of whoever Phil Parker lines up at corner opposite of Harris. Look for him to start with Deshaun Lee, who is experienced and generally solid in coverage, but undersized. If he gets beat, he’ll have a short leash.
INU: Former Northwestern quarterback Brendan Sullivan and wideout Jacob Gill have both gotten bits of action for the Hawkeyes this season. What should Northwestern fans expect to see from the ex-Wildcats?
JP: Gill has been tremendous for Iowa. He wasn’t a guy the fanbase was expecting much out of given his role for the Wildcats and the fact he was expected to slot in behind former Ohio State WR Kaleb Brown. But Brown found himself in the dog house and missed Week 1. He also apparently struggled learning the playbook of new OC Tim Lester and ultimately, Gill just took his job and he’s now entering the portal a second time.
Through seven weeks, Gill is leading the WR group in catches and is second in yardage. The numbers aren’t huge, but for what we’ve seen out of the passing game, he has been just what the doctor ordered. He’s in the right spot and has great hands.
As for Sullivan, we’ll see just how much of him we get on Saturday. As noted, he’s been utilized as the QB in the redzone as Lester likes to have a mobile QB in that area of the field to add an element to the offense. The big question for most of the season has been why that doesn’t seem to be translating to other short-yardage situations in other parts of the field. The question was magnified when Iowa opted not to use Sullivan on a 2-point conversion try last week and failed.
Ferentz left the door open to a QB change in his press availability this week. That would be a big surprise given his unwillingness to replace even the absolute worst QB in modern college football history, but the fanbase is certainly ready to see more of Sullivan.
INU: After beating Northwestern the last three seasons, what do you think the Hawkeyes need to do to beat the Wildcats again?
JP: This is a stock answer for every game Iowa plays the rest of the year. To win this one, the Hawkeyes need to avoid giving up big plays on defense, whether that’s from DBs being out of position or players generally missing tackles, and they need to have success running the football early and often.
We’ve seen enough to know that McNamara simply isn’t going to win any games through the air, particularly with throws down the field, so Iowa needs to establish the run and play from ahead of the sticks and the scoreboard. If it gets behind due to big plays, turnovers, etc, things could get out of hand.
INU: What is your score prediction for the game and why?
JP: It’s really tough to be optimistic about things after the way we had the rug pulled out a week ago. But I think the mental makeup of this group, plus getting Castro back on the defensive side, is going to make this a get right game for the Hawkeyes.
I think we see the defense come out on fire and create multiple turnovers in this game while holding the ‘Cats to under 17 points. The offense may not look ideal, but I suspect they’ll find paydirt off at least one short field and we’ll see Johnson break at least one long TD run. I also think OC Tim Lester does his part to get fans of McNamara’s back a bit and finds a way to build some momentum in the passing game.
Iowa 27, Northwestern 16.