Both teams are hovering around the bubble with conference play nearing an end.
Both men’s and women’s basketball are limping to the end of what has proved to be a grueling conference slate for both teams. Men’s basketball began its season with hopes that despite losing Boo Buie, the rest of the returning supporting cast, plus a group of newcomers headlined by point guard Jalen Leach, would be able to lead the team to its third consecutive NCAA tournament appearance. However, season-ending injuries to Leach and Brooks Barnhizer, as well as some generally sluggish performances, have banished the team to the basement of the Big Ten standings.
Meanwhile, women’s basketball also had high hopes this year. Head Coach Joe McKeown snagged two big names from the transfer portal in Brown’s Kyla Jones and Bucknell’s Grace Sullivan, and he returned most of last year’s squad, now with an extra season of experience. But despite a promising start to the year headlined by statement victories over Utah and UNLV, the ‘Cats crumbled in conference play, defeating just two of their conference foes with one game to go.
While a March Madness bid seems out of the question for both teams right now, there is one (however unlikely) scenario in which they could each guarantee themselves a spot in The Big Dance: win the Big Ten Tournament. A Big Ten Tournament win would be unlikely, but if either of the Wildcat squads found their way in, they could very well feed off postseason magic and attempt to make a run. But the first order of business is getting in.
Men’s basketball is currently 6-11 in conference play, which puts it in a four-way tie with Iowa, USC and Minnesota at 13th in the Big Ten. However, due to tiebreakers, Northwestern slots in at the 14-seed right now. That means that the ‘Cats would qualify if the Big Ten Tournament began today, with the top 15 teams in the conference moving on to postseason play. However, with three games left in the regular season, Nick Martinelli and co. must ensure they do not lose control over that spot.
Northwestern’s next game is this evening, when it hosts Iowa at Welsh Ryan Arena. This game is essentially a must-win game, as Iowa boasts the exact same record as the ‘Cats. In fact, Iowa is the 6-11 team that sits ahead of them, making Friday night’s showdown a crucial contest for both teams. Being able to host this game in Evanston, especially on a Friday night when students are more likely to pack the arena, gives Northwestern a huge advantage that it cannot squander if it wants to play in Indianapolis.
After Iowa, Northwestern hosts UCLA on Monday, and then it closes its regular season the following Saturday in College Park in a rematch with No. 16 Maryland. Given Maryland’s recent surge and UCLA’s general strength as a team, it is unlikely Northwestern wins both these games. However, winning one of the two in addition to beating Iowa would virtually guarantee the ‘Cats a spot in the Big Ten Tournament. The likelihood of Iowa, USC and Minnesota all going 2-1 over their final three games is very small, meaning a pair of wins would send the ‘Cats to Indy.
If Northwestern were to win one or fewer games through the rest of the year, things would get more complicated. If the ‘Cats beat Iowa tonight but drop their contests with UCLA and Maryland, there is still a decent shot they will play some postseason basketball. After Northwestern, Iowa goes on to play No. 8 Michigan State and Nebraska. Even if the Hawkeyes beat Nebraska and tie up the standings again, the ‘Cats would hold the tiebreaker.
USC and Minnesota, the other 6-11 teams, also have tough schedules to close out the year. The Trojans have a winnable game against Washington, but assuming they lose their other two games, the ‘Cats would still edge them out in the standings. The same goes for Minnesota. Essentially, if Northwestern wins one of its final three games, then Iowa, USC, and Minnesota would all need to win two of theirs to knock the ‘Cats out of tournament contention.
If Northwestern fails to win any of its remaining games, however, its fate would rest in the hands of the other teams it’s tied with in the standings. Going winless would mean Iowa would remain ahead of the ‘Cats in the standings, and both USC and Minnesota would need to win just one game to leapfrog NU. With USC playing Washington and Minnesota playing both Rutgers and Nebraska, there is a very real shot both those teams win at least one of their remaining games. If Northwestern wins one of its three games, it should safely make the tournament. Going winless would make the road much rockier.
The women’s path is much simpler, but much more grim. After the Big Ten announced that Northwestern would forfeit the games it was scheduled to play in Los Angeles against UCLA and USC, the ‘Cats dropped to 2-15 in conference play and now no longer control their own destiny. With one game left, NU is currently tied with Rutgers for 16th place in the Big Ten and one game behind Purdue for the final spot in the tournament.
The first thing the ‘Cats must do to qualify for postseason action is to win this Sunday. Northwestern hosts Nebraska at Welsh Ryan Arena for a game that it must win to salvage its season. If the ‘Cats drop this game, they will officially be eliminated from tournament contention.
Even if Northwestern pulls off the upset, however, they will need help from some other teams. First, Rutgers must lose its final game. The Scarlet Knights face off against 1-16 Penn State on Sunday, a game they could very well win to knock the ‘Cats out of tournament contention. However, a Northwestern win combined with a Rutgers loss would put NU ahead of the Scarlet Knights, and one step closer to the tournament.
The second thing that must happen is that Purdue must lose its final game as well. Purdue closes its season this Sunday when it hosts in-state rival Indiana, who is 9-8 in Big Ten play. If Purdue wins, Northwestern is eliminated. However, if the Boilermakers drop this game, combined with an NU win and a Rutgers loss, the ‘Cats will sneak into the 15-seed and qualify for tournament action. Sunday will be a huge day for Northwestern as it clings on to a last bit of hope for reaching the postseason.