A disappointing result for the ‘Cats has exposed many issues this team may face in the future.
With the winds whipping on the lakefront Friday night, there was optimism for Northwestern heading into its showdown with Duke after a strong opening performance against Miami (OH). However, in the so-called “Battle of the Brains,” Northwestern couldn’t outsmart the Blue Devils in a double-overtime defeat. NU’s defense cashed in a tenacious performance once again, conceding only 13 points in regulation and forcing several turnovers. The Wildcats lost the game on offense, with Mike Wright making a litany of mistakes that need to be cleaned up with conference play right around the corner. That said, here are five things we learned from Northwestern’s loss to Duke.
Mike Wright might not be the RIGHT choice
Last week’s performance against Miami (OH) gave ‘Cats fans lots of optimism about the Mississippi State and Vanderbilt transfer quarterback. However, much of that disappeared after Wright’s performance against the Blue Devils, one defined by mistakes and poor decision-making. He finished the game with a mere 158 yards passing and one interception, along with only completing 56% of his passes. At times it seemed like Wright was trying to play hero ball, taking shots down the field that had little chance of being caught. In many of those instances, Wright simply could have thrown the ball out of bounds and cut his losses, but instead, he chucked the ball into the open field with a Duke defender often waiting to receive it. Luckily for Wright, the Blue Devils dropped many of those throws, but he shouldn’t assume or expect that to happen as the competition becomes more stiff.
While one should expect Wright to substantially improve his numbers against FCS opponent Eastern Illinois next week, a lack of such improvement could prompt calls for a change at quarterback. Wright has lots of talent that significantly bolsters this offense —especially his incredible scrambling ability that has gotten him out of countless defensive pressures and into open space. This obviously failed on the third down call in double overtime, but generally, Wright has been successful with these types of plays. He also has a strong arm but needs to be much smarter and use it within the confines of Zach Lujan’s offense instead of trying to create plays out of thin air. The starting quarterback position firmly Wright’s job for now, but if improvements can’t be made, Jack Lausch is certainly available and could receive his big opportunity sooner rather than later.
Cam Porter’s Week 1 improvement was not a blip
Last week, many pointed out how much better Porter looked on the field as compared to last season. Friday did nothing but prove that those strides against Miami (OH) were not an anomaly, but rather a dramatic improvement of his capabilities as this team’s primary running back. Porter averaged a modest 3.9 yards per carry last season, a figure which has improved to 5.4 in the first two games of this season. That statistic reached 5.9 against Duke, with Porter’s 44-yard carry in the first quarter making up nearly half of his 94 yards on the ground. The numbers don’t tell the entire story, though, as Porter basically became the offense in both overtime periods, contributing the vast majority of yards and the sole touchdown. He also contributed in the passing game, with three catches for 27 yards on Friday after having no contribution in the air last week. These progressions from Porter are massive for the ‘Cats and his personal prospects of being considered for the NFL once this season ends.
Third-down conversions are a massive problem
Mike Wright’s performance was of great concern to ‘Cats fans on Friday, but the overall offense didn’t operate extremely well either. Northwestern converted 3 out of 16 third down attempts against the Blue Devils, a success rate of 19%. Duke wasn’t much better, finishing at 4 of 15, but that only speaks to Northwestern’s strength on defense which has been able to keep them alive in close contests. Without the defense consistently bailing out Wright and the offense, Northwestern could have been blown out here and faced a much more crushing defeat. There is no doubt that this will happen if the offense doesn’t improve in future games. Such mishaps have led to stalled momentum on drives, while simultaneously forcing the defense to get stops and exhaust themselves on the field. Northwestern can win games with its defense as we saw last week, but the offense not playing its part and converting on third down will come back to bite the ‘Cats in future matchups if Zach Lujan’s unit can’t get the problem under control.
This special teams unit is SPECIAL
Northwestern Football’s X (formerly known as Twitter) account posted the caption “Special Teams Make Special Teams” following Duke’s second-quarter muffed punt that Northwestern pounced on in the red zone. It might be a bit of a stretch to call this ‘Cats team special at the moment, but it is more definitive that this special teams group reaches that caliber. There’s been massive success among both the positional players and the overall unit, which both displayed flashes of greatness on Friday. Jack Olsen remains fairly consistent, and punter Luke Akers has been impressive, with the junior averaging nearly 40 yards per punt on seven attempts against the Blue Devils and pinning two of those inside the 20. Akers won the job from last year’s starter Hunter Renner and seems to have brought a needed sense of consistency at the position that Renner couldn’t guarantee last season. The unit itself blocked a punt and recovered the muffed punt, giving Northwestern’s offense several opportunities to capitalize. While the offense ultimately didn’t cash in on these efforts, that doesn’t take away anything from how incredible the special teams have been for the Wildcats. David Braun has long spoken about the importance of complimentary football, and while the offense might not be playing its full part at the moment, the special teams can surely holding up its end of the bargain.
Getting to a bowl game won’t be as simple as some believe
I predicted a 6-6 finish for Northwestern this season, which would be just enough to send the ‘Cats bowling for a second season in a row. Friday’s game – one of the 50-50 matchups with no clear favorite heading in – was the first test for this team to assess how far beyond six they could go. This was one of the games circled on the calendar that Northwestern looked able to win, and a victory would’ve been a huge boon to their bowl chances this early in the season. Winning against Duke ahead of what should be a cakewalk against Eastern Illinois would’ve positioned the ‘Cats nicely with a 3-0 start, only requiring three wins in Big Ten play to reach the magic number of six. Now, Northwestern will likely require a minimum of four wins against Big Ten competition to qualify for a bowl, which will not come easy. Beating teams like Wisconsin and Maryland feel likely, but those games are more must-win than they were two days ago. There are still many viable paths to a bowl game, but all look more challenging now without the extra victory in hand.