Can the ‘Cats win 12 Big Ten games for a third straight season? Analyzing Northwestern’s conference schedule

Northwestern will face the new look Big Ten without program legend Boo Buie for the first time.

The Northwestern men’s basketball team finally has their full schedule after the Big Ten announced conference matchup dates on Wednesday. A program that has reached new heights over the last two seasons, the Wildcats will come into the 2024-25 season with fairly high expectations. Miguel Munoz took a look at the ‘Cats non-conference schedule, so let’s evaluate the newly released conference schedule and see what it will take for Northwestern to make it back to the Big Dance.

The Early Season

The early part of the season should provide a major litmus test to where this team is at. Northwestern struggled mightily on the road last season and play three of its first four games in unfriendly arenas to begin the conference slate. The sneaky upside is that the Wildcat faithful may have been sparser than hoped for if these games were at home, since all four of these early season games fall during times when students don’t have class.

The ‘Cats open play at Iowa in a matchup against the only Big Ten team Northwestern lost to at home last season. Iowa lost Tony Perkins and Patrick McCaffrey to the portal but retained stars Payton Sandfort and Owen Freeman and will be a tough test to start the season.

A home date with Illinois follows a few days later. Northwestern took down Illinois in a doozy of an overtime game last season that included a Brooks Barnhizer corner three-and-1, which our staff graded as the best play of the 2023-24 season across every NU sport. Illinois still figures to be good but this roster is completely different from the squad that came into Welsh-Ryan Arena ranked at No. 10 in the country last season, and the matchup should be less daunting.

Northwestern’s first game of 2025 comes in State College, a place where the ‘Cats picked up one of just three road conference wins last season. Penn State was one of the worst teams in the league last year and didn’t improve much over the offseason; however, Northwestern struggled against the Nittany Lions in both matchups last season before squeaking out a pair of close victories. The last game of this phase comes on the road at Purdue. While the Boilermakers don’t have Zach Edey anymore, they still profile as a Top 15 team in the country under the leadership of Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn. The ‘Cats have taken down Purdue in each of the last two seasons when the Boilermakers were ranked No. 1 in the nation. Northwestern doesn’t get Purdue at home this season, but an upset in Mackey Arena is not out of the question as the Wildcats fell just short in an overtime matchup in West Lafayette last season.

Predictions:

@ Iowa: Loss

Vs. Illinois: Loss

@Penn State: Win

@ Purdue: Loss

The Home Stand

The ‘Cats welcome students back to campus for the winter quarter with six home games and just two away games over the next month.

First comes back to back home dates with Michigan State and Maryland, two teams that Northwestern handled at home. Michigan State replaced AJ Hoggard and Mady Sissoko with highly sought after Omaha transfer Frankie Fidler and Longwood big man Szymon Zapala. Meanwhile, Maryland waves goodbye to program legend Jahmir Young but welcomes in Ja’Kobi Gillespie, who the Terps hope can fill Young’s shoes. The Terrapins lost a number of rotation players to the portal but notably retained Julian Reese and landed top 10 recruit Derik Queen to play alongside Reese in the frontcourt.

A quick weekend road trip to Ann Arbor follows as the ‘Cats will once again face head coach Dusty May and Russian center Vlad Goldin, the leaders of the Florida Atlantic team that fell in overtime to Northwestern in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Michigan was the worst team in the Big Ten last season but rebuilt its roster across the board and could be dangerous. In addition to Goldin, who scored 19 points and grabbed nine rebounds against the Wildcats last year, the Wolverines added Yale transfer Danny Wolf who reportedly was choosing between Michigan and Northwestern. Chris Collins may need to out-coach Dusty for a second time for the ‘Cats to come away victorious.

The ‘Cats then play another home matchup against an intriguing Indiana team led by former Arizona star Oumar Ballo who many believe could compete to win the Big Ten this season. The Hoosiers also brought in two Pac-12 guards in Myles Rice and Kanaan Carlyle, but their perimeter game will remain a question mark and could lead to Chris Collins pulling off a vintage gritty, defensive win. Northwestern has owned this matchup recently, winning each of the last three games against Indiana, and a win here would be huge for building a resume.

A trip to Illinois will bring up bad memories for Northwestern fans of their 95-65 trouncing at the hands of the Illini last year. Deeper into the conference season, this one won’t be as bad of a blowout but will still be a tough task for the ‘Cats.

The end of January and beginning of February brings the longest home stand of the season for Northwestern. The purple and white start off with a matchup against a Rutgers squad that landed two top-5 recruits this season and should be much better than they were a year ago. Wisconsin lost AJ Storr, Chucky Hepburn and Connor Essegian and look to be considerably worse than last season, but they were the only team to beat the ‘Cats twice a year ago. Finally, Northwestern fans will get their first look at one of the new Big Ten teams when USC comes to town. Fittingly enough in their conference realignment, USC completely “realigned” their roster under new head coach Eric Musselman, who coached Arkansas for the previous five seasons. Northwestern will see a familiar face in forward Terrance Williams II, who played at Michigan for four years.

Predictions:

Vs. Michigan State: Win

Vs. Maryland: Win

@Michigan: Win

Vs. Indiana: Win

@ Illinois: Loss

Vs. Rutgers: Win

Vs. Wisconsin: Win

Vs. USC: Loss

The West Coast

Immediately following their USC game, Northwestern heads to, well, the Northwest. Road dates with Washington and Oregon will test the ‘Cats. Oregon was a bid stealer last March, winning the Pac-12 and earning an 11 seed before dominating 6-seed South Carolina and dropping in double overtime to 3-seed Creighton in the tournament. Oregon does lose the two stars of that run, N’Faly Dante and Jermaine Couisnard, but the Ducks could still be dangerous.

Washington, meanwhile, poached head coach Danny Sprinkle and versatile center Great Osobor from a surprising Utah State squad. After struggling a year ago, the Huskies hope the coach/player duo can inject some life into the program.

Prediction:

@ Oregon: Loss

@ Washington: Win

Time to Sweat

Following the West Coast trip, NU welcomes the other NU to Welsh-Ryan, as the Cornhuskers of Nebraska visit. Last season, Northwestern handled the Huskers in a game that was overshadowed by the season-ending injury to Ty Berry. Berry is on track to be fully healthy by the start of the season and ‘Cats fans can only hope that he retains his lethal stroke from last season and stays injury-free.

Two games on the road come next, first at Ohio State who have a whole new rotation led by former South Carolina point guard Meechie Johnson and former 5-star recruit Aaron Bradshaw. Northwestern then heads into the deep north for a matchup with Minnesota, who lost nearly every impactful player from last year’s roster and most people believe will finish in the basement of the Big Ten.

A rematch with Iowa at home and a look at the final new Big Ten team, the dangerous UCLA, follow the Minnesota road trip. Iowa will play a fast paced, high octane style of basketball that contrasts to Chris Collins’ slow and methodical system. The late season home game against Iowa last season was the contest that knocked out Matt Nicholson for the year, someone Northwestern needs to stay healthy and impactful all season. Northwestern’s senior night and final home game comes against a UCLA team looking to bounce back from their worst season under bench boss Mick Cronin. The Bruins took the first steps to doing so with a loaded transfer portal class, but they need to prove they can mesh together.

Finally, the ‘Cats cap off the season with a road tilt at Maryland, where they won last year. Given the parity we’ve seen in the Big Ten over the last few years, expect this game to have major implications for Big Ten tournament seeding.

Prediction:

Vs. Nebraska: Win

@ Ohio State: Loss

@ Minnesota: Win

Vs. Iowa: Win

Vs. UCLA: Loss

@ Maryland: Loss

Final Thoughts

Final Prediction: 11-9 in Big Ten play

This may be a bit optimistic given the loss of Buie and Ryan Langborg, as well as question marks about the health of Berry, Nicholson and even Brooks Barnhizer who has been in a walking boot lately. However, Northwestern profiles as a deeper and healthier team than last year’s squad, the ‘Cats could win 12 Big Ten games for the third straight season. With a lack of non-conference games against quality opponents, signature wins in conference against teams like Purdue, Indiana and Illinois will be crucial for Chris Collins’ team if they want to go dancing for a third straight year.