It’s all noise on the western front.
Other than Nebraska’s win in the finals of the Diamond Head Classic and UCLA’s win against Gonzaga, it was a relatively boring week for the B1G. However, when there are only two teams in the conference playing against tournament contenders the entire week, it’s probably for the best that no one really turned any heads.
On the bright side, the week was boring because the large majority of teams played an easy game to prepare for the restart of conference play, and the B1G went undefeated in its games. Because B1G action is just around the corner, I’ll be talking about the most realistic tournament outlook for each team within this article.
Oregon – No. 2 Seed (No. 6 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 2 seed (No. 6 overall)
Oregon beat Weber State 89-49 on Sunday night in its final tune-up game before conference play. Jackson Shelstad led the team with 16 points and the Ducks had five players who had double-digit scoring outputs on Sunday. Oregon heads into conference play as the highest-ranked team in the B1G and with a strong resume. If the Ducks can get 14 or 15 conference wins, they will have a strong enough resume to contend for a one seed. The Ducks will fall between a No. 2 and No. 4 seed if they play at the level they have so far.
UCLA – No. 3 Seed (No. 11 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 6 Seed (No. 23 overall)
UCLA has played three incredibly close games against three great teams at the end of its non-conference schedule. The Bruins beat Arizona 57-54, lost to North Carolina 76-74, leading up to the biggest test of the season, a clash with then-No. 14 Gonzaga. The Bruins stifled a Gonzaga team with the 4th-ranked offense, according to Kenpom, en route to a 65-62 win. Eric Dailey Jr. led the way with 18 points, six rebounds and four steals. Dailey Jr. also knocked down four three-pointers in a game where UCLA shot 12-of-24 from beyond the arc. The Bruins moved to 3-1 in Quad 1 games this season, and with top-15 rankings in both the NET and Kenpom, they are firmly in the conversation for a top four seed heading into the start of full-time conference play. It’s very likely that UCLA will end up as a No. 3 to No. 5 seed.
Illinois – No. 5 Seed (No. 19 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 5 Seed (No. 19 overall)
Illinois demolished Chicago State 117-64 on Sunday. While Tomislav Ivisic led the team in scoring with 23 points, Kylan Boswell stole the show with his triple-double (18 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists). The Fighting Illini also had six players who scored 11 points or more, and although some of those players were the usual suspects, Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn’s 16 points in 19 minutes off the bench stood out as a great sign going forward. While Illinois has the talent to compete with anyone in the country, the Illini would have to be almost flawless in conference play to get a No. 1 or 2 seed, but anything in the No. 3 to No. 6 seed range seems very attainable.
Michigan State – No. 6 Seed (No. 23 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 6 seed (No. 21 overall)
Michigan State beat Western Michigan 80-62 to finish the non-conference slate at 9-2 against a top-100 Strength of Schedule (SOS) in such games. The Spartans haven’t lost to any non-tournament teams but haven’t beaten any great teams either. Last year, the Spartans’ story of the season was predictive metrics that pointed to a top twenty team, but an eye test and resume metrics that pointed towards a team that should be sweating on Selection Sunday. The good news is that this year, all of the metrics agree that Michigan State is a borderline top-20 team — there is virtually no separation between resume and predictive metrics. If the Spartans truly are that good, they will get more than enough quality wins in conference play and will easily cruise to a single-digit seed, likely in the No. 5 to No. 8 range.
Purdue – No. 6 Seed (No. 24 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 6 Seed (No. 24 overall)
Purdue beat Toledo 83-64 on Sunday. Braden Smith tallied 34 points (a season high) and 12 assists in that victory in a much-needed feel good win before conference play restarts. The good news for Purdue fans is that the Boilermakers are 3-4 in Quad 1 games, so there are enough good wins on the resume already. The bad news for Purdue fans is that, outside of an early-season win against Alabama, the team has struggled against elite competition, and four early losses is never ideal, no matter how hard the schedule is. Wins against Ole Miss and Maryland are keeping this resume afloat, and although it will likely stay that way, how Purdue performs against the top of the conference will either allow this team to contend for a top-four seed or will keep the Boilermakers in No. 6 to No. 8 seed range.
Maryland – No. 7 Seed (No. 26 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 7 seed (No. 26 overall)
Maryland put on a masterclass of manipulating the NET rankings in non-conference play. The Terps played their eighth and final Quad 4 opponent on Saturday, but because they only won by 15 against a Maryland Eastern Shore team that is among the 10 lowest-ranked teams in the NET, Maryland actually dropped from No. 7 in the NET to No. 13 this morning. Maryland’s close losses to Purdue and Marquette and demolition of Ohio State show this team has what it takes to be one of the best teams in the country, but the Terrapins just haven’t been tested enough yet. Maryland could finish within the top four of the conference standings, but my intuition is that the Terps finish somewhere in between fifth and eighth in the conference. In that case, they would land somewhere in the No. 6 to No. 8 seed range, just like Michigan State and Purdue, with the committee punishing one of the weakest non-conference schedules in the country.
Michigan – No. 7 Seed (No. 27 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 9 seed (No. 36 overall)
Michigan defeated Western Kentucky 112-67 on Sunday. Michigan shot 19-of-40 (47.5%) from beyond the arc in that game, and if the Wolverines knock down threes like they did against the Hilltoppers, they will contend for a conference title. Back to reality, Michigan has shot 22-of-79 (27.8%) from distance in its three losses, with an abysmal 4-of-28 performance against Oklahoma. Michigan is only a few points away from an amazing resume, but not getting those points in the clutch is what keeps Michigan at a No. 7 seed currently. Predictive metrics say the Wolverines are similar to Illinois and Maryland, whereas resume metrics say they’re more like Iowa and Northwestern. I’m going to go out on a limb and say the predictive metrics are right; the Wolverines end up 13-7 or 14-6 in conference and get a No. 5, 6 or 7 seed.
Wisconsin – No. 7 Seed (No. 28 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 8 Seed (No. 30 overall)
Even though the Badgers started 0-2 in two Quad 1 conference games (against Michigan and Illinois), they still have a 4-1 record against Quads 1 and 2 in non-conference games to hold up their resume. Wisconsin took the week off, but will restart conference play next week with a home game against Iowa and a trip to Rutgers. As long as Wisconsin goes 2-0 this week to even out its conference record at 2-2 and picks up those two Quad 2 victories, the Badgers will be in a good position going forward. The strong record against the first two quadrants makes Wisconsin relatively likely to make the tournament, but the limited sample size against such opponents, along with the two early conference losses, will limit the Badgers’ upside and keep them in the tier just above bubble teams barring any surprises in conference play.
Ohio State – No. 8 Seed (No. 31 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 8 seed (No. 32 overall)
Ohio State beat Indiana State 103-83 on Sunday. The Buckeyes are 2-4 against Quad 1 opponents, and their resume is incredibly similar to Purdue’s. The differences? On average, Purdue has played slightly better teams, despite playing only one extra Quad 1 game. Also, with respect to common opponents, Texas A&M and Auburn, Ohio State lost by a combined 52 points, whereas Purdue lost by 22 to those same teams. The predictive metrics give Ohio State a slight advantage, while the resume metrics say Purdue is comfortably better. For now, the Boilermakers are a few teams ahead of the Buckeyes, but a win against No. 18 Michigan State on Friday would go a long way towards changing those resume metrics. Ohio State passes the eye test of a tournament team, but now the Buckeyes need more resume-building wins to back that up and maintain a single-digit seed.
Nebraska – No. 10 Seed (No. 38 overall)
Previous seeding: First Four Out
Nebraska beat Oregon State 78-66 on Christmas Day to secure the Diamond Head Classic title and followed that up with a 77-43 win against Southern. The Cornhuskers aren’t totally safe in the bracket, but they deserve to be safe in the field for now. A 27-point loss to Michigan State really hurts Nebraska, but a .500 record in conference would probably be enough to land on the right side of the bubble. The Cornhuskers will probably finish towards the bottom-middle portion of the conference standings and will end up on the cut line for the tournament, but if you asked me ‘yes or no, does Nebraska make the tournament?’ I would lean towards saying yes, but as a double-digit seed.
Penn State – No. 11 Seed (No. 45 overall, Last Four In)
Previous seeding: No. 11 Seed (No. 43 overall, Last Four Byes)
Penn State beat Penn 86-66 on Sunday. The Nittany Lions are a matchup dilemma for any team with a defense that has forced the sixth-highest turnover rate in the nation, but, so far, Penn State has not played enough quality games to build up a strong resume. The Nittany Lions are squarely on the bubble, and I would guess that they end up somewhere in the middle of the conference standings and still on the bubble when it’s all said and done. Penn State looks like a solid tournament team, but it will end up with a double-digit seed.
Iowa – No. 11 Seed (No. 46 overall, Last Four In)
Previous seeding: No. 11 Seed (No. 45 overall, Last Four In)
Iowa beat New Hampshire 112-70 on Sunday. Just like Penn State, the Hawkeyes are a matchup dilemma because of their playing style, but they get it done on the offensive end with a high-pace, high-efficiency offense. The problem for Iowa is that there are good wins, but no great wins on its resume. The Hawkeyes are 3-0 against Quad 2, but 0-3 against Quad 1. Iowa will end up on the right side of the bubble with a few marquee wins in conference play, but if the Hawkeyes can only gather more Quad 2 wins and not enough Quad 1 wins, their season will end early.
Northwestern – First Four Out
Previous seeding: Next Four Out
Northwestern beat Northeastern 85-60 this weekend. Since Brooks Barnhizer has returned from his injury (something that is really important because the committee does factor injuries into their decisions), the Wildcats have looked better. Northwestern is currently the dictionary definition of a bubble team, with the Barnhizer injury adding another piece to a very compelling puzzle. The Wildcats have 11 games against Quad 1 this season, and five of them happen to be Northwestern’s upcoming five games (at Penn State, at Purdue, vs. Michigan State, vs. Maryland and at Michigan). It seems harsh to judge this early in the season, but if the ‘Cats go 3-2 in that stretch, they’re a tournament team in position for a No. 8 or No. 9 seed. If they end up 2-3, that eliminates any margin of error for the rest of the season, and they’ll stay entrenched on the bubble.
Indiana – Out
Previous seeding: In Consideration
Indiana wrapped up its non-conference play with an uninspiring 77-68 win against Winthrop. The Hoosiers shot 1-of-20 from three-point range, and until they can shoot at a competitive percentage, this team will be nowhere near the NCAA Tournament picture. Like the next few teams I’ll talk about, Indiana needs a miraculous change of fate in conference play to contend for an at-large bid. Even with the talent on the Hoosiers’ roster, it’s hard to imagine this team finds that turnaround and reaches its full potential before it’s too late.
Rutgers – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Rutgers defeated Columbia 91-64, and although that does sound like business as usual for any major-conference team, Columbia was 11-1 heading into that game. The Lions were ranked 75 spots higher in the NET than Seton Hall, which Rutgers struggled to beat at home earlier this season. Dylan Harper had 16 points, 12 assists and 11 rebounds to earn the second triple-double of the week in the conference, and Ace Bailey added 24 points of his own in the victory. Even with the two freshman phenoms performing well, going 7-4 against a non-conference strength of schedule ranked outside of the top-100 is a recipe for disaster in terms of making the tournament. Because of that, Rutgers would likely need to get to 12-8 or 13-7 in conference and/or finish in the top four of the B1G standings to vie for an at-large bid in March.
USC – Out
Previous seeding: Out
USC is sitting at No. 95 in the NET rankings. While the four losses the Trojans took in non-conference play don’t take them out of the picture for an at-large bid, USC has an incredibly small margin for error. Although the Trojans have started to play better recently, they lost to every likely tournament team they have played this season, and have a 1-3 record against the top two quadrants. With the poor early season performance against a soft schedule, USC will need to play at an incredibly high level to have a chance of making the tournament.
Washington – Out
Previous seeding: Out
One game can really change a season, and although Washington’s 90-53 win against NJIT is a good win, the Huskies took themselves out of the tournament picture by losing to Seattle University last week. Washington went from a salvageable No. 97 NET ranking to No. 118 the next morning. An uphill battle turned into climbing Mount Everest, and this team just doesn’t have the pieces to do that.
Minnesota – Out
Previous seeding: Out
While Washington has a game or two to point out where its season shifted the wrong way, Minnesota has consistently been mediocre. The Golden Gophers beat Morgan State 90-68 on Sunday, but all this team can hope to do is ruin the seasons of better teams. Minnesota is the only team that will be a Quad 3 game anywhere it plays, and if things get worse (i.e. a rankings drop from No. 155 to below No. 165), there’s a chance the Golden Gophers become a season-killing Quad 4 opponent for an unfortunate tournament hopeful.