Big Ten Bracketology, Week 6: West Coast Winners

Every team is going 10-10 in conference, aren’t they?

If you love early season overreactions, what if I told you that Purdue and Oregon are the only teams in the Big Ten that haven’t been eliminated from contending for a title and there’s historical proof?

Technically, that tweet isn’t proof of anything, but the reality is with almost a third of the season already gone, we’re starting to have a clearer picture of who the big dogs really are this season. There are preseason juggernauts like Houston (No. 15) and UConn (No. 18) and surging teams like Michigan (No. 14) and Clemson (No. 16) who could certainly buck the trend this year, but if you value historical trends, those trends would tell you put your stock in Oregon and Purdue if you think a Big Ten team is winning the national championship. And if you think it’s too early to talk about who will cut down the nets in April, then first let’s break down who’s getting a chance to dance.

Oregon – No. 3 Seed (No. 9 overall)

Previous seeding: No. 2 seed (No. 7 overall)

Oregon trailed USC for most of its first game this week, but took a 58-55 lead after a Jackson Shelstad three with 4:10 left and never looked back. Shelstad finished with a game-high 24 points in the 68-60 road win, which was the first Big Ten game for both Oregon and USC. But in the Ducks’ second game of the week, the comeback magic wasn’t quite there. UCLA led 68-61 with 3:06 left, and, although Oregon came all the way back to take a 71-70 lead with 10 seconds left, the Ducks lost in heartbreaking fashion when Dylan Andrews banked in a step-back three with only 0.4 seconds left to end Oregon’s undefeated campaign.

Purdue – No. 3 Seed (No. 12 overall)

Previous seeding: No. 3 Seed (No. 11 overall)

The perception of this Purdue team has changed this week. After some impressive non-conference wins, the Boilermakers looked very vulnerable in their first two conference games. Penn State effectively ran Purdue out of the Bryce Jordan Center for 37 minutes, as the Nittany Lions led 78-55 with 3:31 left. Purdue somehow cut the final score down to a much more respectable 81-70 loss, but that final is extremely misleading. The Boilermakers almost blew their opportunity to bounce back from the road loss as well. Purdue eventually escaped with an 83-78 win against Maryland, but close wins over unranked teams at Mackey Arena immediately after getting embarrassed on the road isn’t a good look for the perennial contenders.

Michigan State – No. 6 Seed (No. 24 overall)

Previous seeding: No. 9 seed (No. 33 overall)

Michigan State didn’t have a particularly challenging schedule to begin conference play, but the Spartans looked great against both Minnesota and Nebraska. Last week, I mentioned Michigan State would be just fine if they got balanced scoring outputs consistently, and, on the road against Minnesota, that was the exact formula for success. Coen Carr was the Spartans’ leading scorer with just 12 points in a 90-72 victory, and Michigan State carried its momentum forward by suffocating Nebraska on the other end of the court. After leading by 10 at the half, the Spartans held Nebraska to just one point over an eight and a half minute stretch, before Michigan State eventually won 89-52.

Illinois – No. 7 Seed (No. 25 overall)

Previous seeding: No. 5 Seed (No. 17 overall)

Illinois had the exact week any reasonable person would expect: they went 1-1 in two close games against good opponents. On paper, Illinois was the better team against both Northwestern and No. 20 Wisconsin, but winning both games was going to be a big challenge. The Illini lost 70-66 in overtime against Northwestern on the road and dropped out of the AP poll as a result. The good news is that the AP poll doesn’t affect brackets at all, and, after Illinois beat No. 20 Wisconsin 86-80, the Illini are relatively close to where they started the week.

Maryland – No. 7 Seed (No. 26 overall)

Previous seeding: No. 7 seed (No. 28 overall)

It’s hard to steal the show in the conference with a 1-1 performance, but I’m going to make the argument that Maryland did just that this past week. The Terrapins dismantled Ohio State on Wednesday, leading by as many as 40 points over an Ohio State team that I foolishly placed one spot in the bracket ahead of Maryland the morning of that game. After that 83-59 win, the Terrapins did more than hold their own on the road against then-No. 8 Purdue. Derik Queen tallied 26 points and 12 rebounds, but Maryland eventually fell 83-78 in a back-and-forth clash between two teams that look like major threats atop the conference hierarchy.

Michigan – No. 7 Seed (No. 27 overall)

Previous seeding: No. 5 seed (No. 20 overall)

Michigan turned it over 17 times and surrendered 15 offensive rebounds to Iowa, but somehow Roddy Gayle Jr.’s late bucket led the Wolverines to an 85-83 victory. Against Arkansas at Madison Square Garden, Michigan had 5 turnovers in the first two minutes of both halves combined. The Wolverines didn’t start fast enough, and after leading by four at halftime, Arkansas took a lead two minutes into the half. That lead got as big as 18 in the second half before Michigan stormed back and ended the game just two points shy of a crazy comeback in a game eerily similar to the Wolverines’ early-season loss to Wake Forest. The good news is that the loss to Arkansas is Quad 1 and barely hurt Michigan’s resume, but the Wolverines still dropped in the bracket with the teams near them claiming more impressive victories.

UCLA – No. 8 Seed (No. 29 overall)

Previous seeding: No. 11 Seed (No. 41 overall, Last Four Byes)

UCLA had looked the part of a potential top-25 team all year long, but the Bruins were just steamrolling through a road of cupcakes and lost to their only quality opponent (New Mexico). After defeating Washington in its conference opener before the last update, UCLA claimed the best win in conference play to date by going on the road and pulling off the 73-71 upset against then-No. 12 Oregon. UCLA’s win took it from 74th in Strength of Record (SOR) to 47th, falling a little closer to the Bruins’ already top-16 marks in both the NET and Kenpom and allowing them to climb to a No. 8 seed.

Wisconsin – No. 10 Seed (No. 37 overall)

Previous seeding: No. 6 Seed (No. 22 overall)

Wisconsin had a really tough schedule over its last three games, and the Badgers failed to rise to the task. Wisconsin lost at home to Michigan last week and then had to go on the road to face then-No. 5 Marquette and Illinois. Kam Jones scored 32 points against the Badgers, leading the Golden Eagles to an 88-74 victory. Against Illinois, Wisconsin’s defense was exposed again. The Illini, backed by 24 points from Kasparas Jakucionis, 23 points from Tre White and 19 points from Kylan Boswell, beat Wisconsin 86-80 in a shootout in Champaign. The Badgers drop from a No. 6 seed to a No. 10 seed after those two losses, and Wisconsin needs to beat Butler to avoid potentially falling out of the bracket.

Penn State – No. 11 Seed (No. 41 overall, Last Four Byes)

Previous seeding: No. 11 Seed (No. 42 overall, Last Four Byes)

If you need any proof that winning on the road in the Big Ten is an incredibly tall task, Penn State’s week was amazing proof of that. The Nittany Lions led by 27 points over then-No. 8 Purdue in a dominant victory (even if the final score was 81-70). But immediately after dominating the preseason favorites to win the conference, Penn State lost on the road to one of the only teams in the conference that isn’t in the NCAA Tournament picture at all. The Nittany Lions were trending towards a single-digit seed, but an 80-76 loss to Rutgers effectively canceled out Penn State’s big win against Purdue.

Ohio State – No. 11 Seed (No. 42 overall, Last Four Byes)

Previous seeding: No. 7 seed (No. 27 overall)

If I described the Purdue loss to Penn state as embarrassing (I did), then Ohio State’s loss to Maryland has to be described in the exact same fashion. The Terrapins led 50-17 against the Buckeyes at the half and extended that lead to a 40-point margin (63-23) a few minutes after the break. Ohio State lost 83-59, but the Buckeyes looked a lot better in their conference home opener. Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, who average 41.0 PPG combined this season only scored 30, as the Ohio State defense held Rutgers to 66 points in an 80-66 win. Still, the embarrassing loss to Maryland overshadowed the decent win against Rutgers, and the Buckeyes fell in the bracket as a result.

Iowa – No. 12 Seed (No. 47 overall, Last Four In)

Previous seeding: No. 12 Seed (No. 48 overall, Last Four In)

Iowa almost did it again. Against Michigan, Pryce Sandfort had a chance to copy Josh Dix’s heroics from the Hawkeyes’ conference opener against Northwestern, but his look from the corner at the buzzer beater just missed. Iowa lost 85-83 to Michigan, but, keep in mind, the Wolverines defeated Wisconsin on the road just four days before their clash with Iowa. The Hawkeyes’ offense looks extremely effective and efficient to start conference play, but Iowa will be put to the test again this week against rival Iowa State, whose fifth-ranked defense (according to Kenpom) has frustrated teams all year long.

Indiana – No. 12 Seed (No. 48 overall, Last Four In)

Previous seeding: Next Four Out

Indiana did exactly what it was supposed to do this week: take care of business at home. The Hoosiers claimed a comfortable 76-57 win against Miami (OH) on Friday before beating Minnesota 82-67 to start conference play. Indiana will now turn its attention to a road game against Nebraska, who is also on the bubble, and that game is a must-win for the Hoosiers to stay on the right side of the tournament picture.

Nebraska – Next Four Out

Previous seeding: No. 10 Seed (No. 40 overall, Last Four Byes)

Even though Creighton’s upset against No. 1 Kansas indirectly helped Nebraska’s resume by making the Cornhuskers’ best win look better, the team did not do itself any favors against Michigan State. Nebraska, as mentioned in the context of Michigan State, was completely stopped in its tracks offensively for most of the second half, and the lackluster performance against a similar opponent means the Cornhuskers dropped out of this week’s field. However, if Nebraska can bounce back with a win over Indiana, it could be right back in the field next week with some help.

Northwestern – In Consideration

Previous seeding: Out

The season would have been nearly impossible to save if Northwestern didn’t win one of its two games against Iowa and then-No. 19 Illinois. Despite losing to Iowa on a buzzer-beater, the Wildcats quickly picked their heads back up as a team and were up to the task against a formidable Illinois squad. Northwestern trailed 46-36 with under 10 minutes left in the half, but then the comeback started and didn’t stop until the ‘Cats forced overtime. Nick Martinelli, who finished with a game-high 27 points, scored seven of the first nine Northwestern points in the extra period, leading the ‘Cats to a huge upset victory.

Rutgers – Out

Previous seeding: Out

Ladies and gentlemen, the Scarlet Knights won a close game. I repeat, they won a close game. Rutgers did lose 80-66 on the road against Ohio State earlier in the week, but the Scarlet Knights desperately needed to win a big game and they did just that against Penn State. Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey combined for 39 points and led Rutgers to an 80-76 victory, but the Scarlet Knights still aren’t quite knocking on the door of the tournament field just yet.

USC – Out

Previous seeding: Out

Maybe USC isn’t the worst team in the conference after all. The Trojans were certainly in that conversation heading into the week, but they flipped the narrative (a little bit, at least). USC couldn’t close out its game against Oregon, but there’s no shame in a 68-60 loss to the Ducks. USC responded to the close loss by demolishing Washington 85-61 on the road. They still aren’t close to the tournament field, but the Trojans just need to keep improving, and if they end up playing like they did on Saturday more often than not, they will at least be back in the conversation before the end of the season.

Washington – Out

Previous seeding: Out

Unfortunately, Washington has started to play exactly as we all expected before the season. Its glimmer of hope dissipated when USC destroyed Washington 85-61 in Seattle, and even though an 89-67 victory against Eastern Washington looks good, the signs that the Huskies can compete in the Big Ten just aren’t there.

Minnesota – Out

Previous seeding: Out

Minnesota did exactly what everyone thought they might do to open up conference play: lose two games. The Golden Gophers started the week by losing 90-72 to Michigan State at home, then followed that up with an 82-67 loss on the road against Indiana. Minnesota is outside of the top 150 teams in the NET and 6-5 on the season, so no matter how you slice it, the Gophers are a long shot to contend for the NCAA Tournament.