Did the Big Ten play itself out of two bubble bids?
To be quite honest, there won’t be much of a shift from my projected seeds today until Selection Sunday, except one clump of teams from the No. 5 seeds to the No. 7 seeds that seems to change every second. However, despite a potential lack of seeding changes, the Big Ten Tournament has been extremely entertaining so far, featuring nail-biter after nail-biter, even within a tournament that has ended up with a completely chalk bracket from the quarterfinals onward. Without further ado, let’s get into the action and talk about what each team can do to its seeding over the course of the weekend.
Michigan State – No. 2 Seed (No. 7 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 2 Seed (No. 7 overall)
The Spartans haven’t seen the court in the Big Ten Tournament, but Michigan State owns a whopping 12 Quad 1 wins, which ranks second in the nation, only trailing Auburn (who has 15 Quad 1 wins). The Spartans’ impressive catalog of victories has people discussing if Michigan State can claim a No. 1 seed. Personally, I think the Spartans do have a chance, but it’s a very slim one. It would likely require Michigan State winning the Big Ten Tournament, along with losses by Alabama, Tennessee and Florida in their respective SEC Quarterfinals matchups with Kentucky, Texas and Missouri. In terms of their floor, I think the Spartans could only sink to a No. 3 seed with a loss to Oregon today and conference tournament championship victories by both Texas Tech and St. John’s. It’s a relatively safe bet that Michigan State will have a two next to its name on Selection Sunday.
Maryland – No. 3 Seed (No. 12 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 4 Seed (No. 13 overall)
The Terrapins have a clean resume, with no losses in Quad 3 or 4, and have a rock solid 13-7 record in Quad 1 and 2 games. However, Maryland’s non-conference strength of schedule is ranked No. 325 in the nation, and the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee does tend to place a decent amount of weight on non-conference games. Even though the Terrapins have built a solid resume from wins in Big Ten play and both Iowa State and Texas A&M (current No. 3 and 4 seeds, respectively) suffered early losses in their respective conference tournaments, Maryland isn’t guaranteed to stay a No. 3 seed unless it gets to the Big Ten Tournament finals. The Terrapins technically could fall to a No. 5 seed in a true worst case scenario, but with all the Big Ten teams on the No. 4 to No. 6 seed lines, it’s hard to find a combination of results that would actually cause Maryland to drop that far.
Wisconsin – No. 4 Seed (No. 13 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 4 Seed (No. 14 overall)
Wisconsin defeated Northwestern 70-63 yesterday to advance to the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. Realistically, the Badgers’ tournament outlook is very similar to Maryland’s seeding scenarios described above, but Wisconsin doesn’t have an ugly non-conference strength of schedule to cap its ceiling as much as it will cap Maryland’s seeding. Regardless, the Badgers are likely to remain on the No. 4 seed line, but in a scenario where Wisconsin beats UCLA, Michigan State and Maryland on three consecutive days, a No. 3 seed would be well within the Badgers’ reach.
Purdue – No. 4 Seed (No. 16 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 4 Seed (No. 16 overall)
Purdue barely escaped with a 76-71 win against a feisty USC team last night. The Boilermakers played a ridiculous non-conference schedule, which will allow the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to overlook the double-digit number in the loss column. However, if Purdue loses to Michigan tonight, there is a very real possibility that any team currently holding a No. 5 seed and still alive in their conference tournaments (Arizona, Oregon, or Michigan) would pass the Boilermakers with a win. Purdue won’t drop to a No. 6 seed even with a loss to Michigan, but just like Wisconsin and Maryland, there is still a chance for the Boilermakers to claim a No. 3 seed by winning the Big Ten Tournament.
Oregon – No. 5 Seed (No. 17 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 5 Seed (No. 18 overall)
Oregon won its first Big Ten Tournament game against Indiana 72-59. The Ducks’ win against the Hoosiers set up a matchup with Michigan State in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. That is a win-win situation for Oregon, because even if the Spartans are victorious, a loss to Michigan State wouldn’t push the Ducks down a seed line, but the Ducks’ resume could improve a lot with a win. Oregon has locked up a No. 5 seed and has a chance to get a No. 4 seed with at least another win in the Big Ten Tournament and some favorable results in other matchups across the country.
Michigan – No. 5 Seed (No. 19 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 6 Seed (No. 21 overall)
Michigan hasn’t played yet in the Big Ten Tournament, but the Wolverines will take on Purdue later tonight. With a win, Michigan would secure at least a No. 5 seed and would still have a very legitimate shot at a No. 4 seed with another win or two in the remainder of the Big Ten Tournament. However, with the Wolverines’ slump to end the season, Michigan is probably more focused on a confidence boost than NCAA Tournament seeding. Speaking of that slump, should the Wolverines lose again today, they would likely fall on the No. 6 seed line on Selection Sunday, barring other results around the country. Michigan remains a tough team to seed because they are caught in the middle of a group of 12 or so teams that all have relatively comparable resumes across the board.
Illinois – No. 6 Seed (No. 24 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 6 Seed (No. 24 overall)
Illinois is finally back at full strength, and the Fighting Illini are playing like that is the case. Illinois beat Iowa 106-94 in its first Big Ten Tournament game despite a 30-point outburst from Payton Sandfort. The Fighting Illini cannot get all the way to a No. 4 seed before Selection Sunday, but they could get right to that border and secure a No. 5 seed if they keep playing at a high level. Illinois is also an interesting team to evaluate because the injury issues throughout the season are something that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee will have to monitor as well. However, the more the Illini win at full strength, the more likely it is that some of Illinois’ losses with a depleted roster are overlooked a bit.
UCLA – No. 7 Seed (No. 25 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 7 Seed (No. 28 overall)
It really feels like UCLA should be seeded higher, but the Bruins just haven’t been able to climb the seed list in recent weeks. UCLA’s schedule to send the season wasn’t tough enough to give the Bruins a bunch of quality wins, although the Big Ten Tournament could fix that problem. UCLA has a chance to beat Wisconsin today, and if the Bruins can avenge an earlier loss by pulling off that victory, their seeding will improve dramatically. UCLA is already higher than a No. 7 seed according to some bracketologists, and it wouldn’t shock me to see the Bruins all the way up on the No. 5 seed line with a few wins in the Big Ten Tournament.
Indiana – First Four Out
Previous seeding: No. 11 Seed (No. 44 overall, Last Four In)
The Hoosiers lost 72-59 to Oregon in their first game in the Big Ten Tournament. Indiana just made Selection Sunday a lot more nerve wracking for anyone involved with the program. Right now, I have the Hoosiers as the first team out of the NCAA Tournament, but if Boise State fails to defeat New Mexico tonight, Indiana would be back in the field as the last team in. Regardless of if my projections are accurate to the exact seeding numbers or not, it is safe to say that when the NCAA Tournament field is being selected, the Hoosiers will be one of the first teams out or will be playing in Dayton in a play-in game.
Ohio State – First Four Out
Previous seeding: No. 12 Seed (No. 47 overall, Last Four In)
Simply put, Ohio State played itself out of the NCAA Tournament by losing 77-70 to Iowa in its first game in the Big Ten Tournament. Even though the Buckeyes are only the third team out of my projected field, with no opportunities left over to improve their resume, Ohio State’s NCAA Tournament dreams are effectively over. Last week, I said, “if the Buckeyes only beat Iowa and Illinois, that would be cutting it too close.” Ohio State wasn’t even able to claim one of those victories, meaning we’re beyond cutting it close here. A 17-15 team that went 9-11 in conference play just isn’t going to make the NCAA Tournament, regardless of how good the Buckeyes’ metrics are and how many Quad 1 games they played.
Nebraska – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Nebraska did not make the Big Ten Tournament, but with Northwestern head coach Chris Collins stating the Wildcats wouldn’t accept an invite to the College Basketball Crown tournament (or any postseason tournament), the Cornhuskers could be heading to Las Vegas for postseason play after a disappointing end to the regular season.
Northwestern – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Northwestern defeated Minnesota 72-64 in its first Big Ten Tournament game but then lost 70-63 to Wisconsin yesterday afternoon. The Wildcats put up a valiant effort towards the end of the season with a shorthanded roster, but it just wasn’t enough for the ‘Cats to ever truly make it back onto the bubble and into prominence within the NCAA Tournament conversation.
Iowa – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Iowa almost took the Big Ten Tournament by storm, but it came up just a little short. The Hawkeyes played the spoiler role perfectly with a 77-70 win against Ohio State that served as the final nail in the coffin when it came to the Buckeyes’ NCAA Tournament hopes. In the second round of the Big Ten Tournament, however, Iowa couldn’t stop Illinois’ offense in a 106-94 loss.
USC – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Speaking of playing the spoiler role, USC ended any fans’ dreams of seeing a Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey Cinderella run past the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. The Trojans defeated Rutgers 97-89 in a double-overtime thriller but fell 76-71 to Purdue in the second round. USC’s season will end unceremoniously, but the way Wesley Yates III finished the season should give any Trojan fans a lot of hope going into next year.
Penn State – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Penn State did not make the Big Ten Tournament, and unfortunately, didn’t end the season anywhere near the NCAA Tournament picture.
Rutgers – Out
Previous seeding: Out
The Scarlet Knights lost 97-89 to USC in double overtime in the Big Ten Tournament. Despite bringing in the two highest-rated recruits in school history, Rutgers will miss the NCAA Tournament for the third consecutive season.
Minnesota – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Minnesota lost 72-64 to Northwestern in the first round of the Big Ten Tournament and then surprisingly made the announcement that Ben Johnson would not be returning as head coach next season. Johnson’s tenure wasn’t wildly successful, but it still feels slightly unfair to expect better out of his teams when the Golden Gophers’ best players throughout his tenure consistently got poached by other programs across the country.
Washington – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Washington was not a participant in the Big Ten Tournament, and the Huskies were never really considered as an at-large candidate for the NCAA Tournament even at their highest points this season.