Maryland has completed a late-season surge up the seed list, and claimed second place in the Big Ten.
The final week of the Big Ten regular season left nothing on the table in terms of living up to March’s moniker of madness. Nebraska and Ohio State went to double overtime in a pivotal bubble struggle, Illinois and Purdue went back and forth in a game with important seeding implications and Maryland claimed a major road win against Michigan that eventually led to the Terrapins claiming the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Without further ado, let’s get into the action!
Michigan State – No. 2 Seed (No. 7 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 2 Seed (No. 7 overall)
With a 91-84 road win against Iowa, Michigan State clinched the Big Ten regular season championship. The title is the Spartans’ 17th in program history and first since winning three straight conference championships from 2018-2020. After the win against Iowa, Michigan State took on No. 17 Michigan at home with a chance to sweep the Wolverines in the regular season for the second year in a row. The Spartans dominated Michigan in the first half, and after building a 50-28 lead at the half, won 79-62. The Spartans are still in a great position to claim a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, with an outside chance at a No. 1 seed if they win the Big Ten Tournament and three other teams in the race for a No. 1 seed (preferably Tennessee, Alabama, Florida and Houston) lose early in each of their respective conference tournaments. Regardless, Michigan State is set up for a great March.
Maryland – No. 4 Seed (No. 13 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 5 Seed (No. 19 overall)
Maryland has been searching for enough big wins to improve its resume metrics for most of the season. The Terrapins certainly accomplished that this week by picking up a 71-65 win on the road against No. 17 Michigan. Maryland followed up that win by taking care of business against Northwestern with a 74-61 victory against the Wildcats. The Quad 1A road win against Michigan gave Maryland a sizable bump in resume metrics, allowing the Terrapins to leapfrog over a few teams who lost this weekend as well. There is a realistic path for Maryland to get to a No. 3 seed, but that will likely only happen if the Terrapins make the final of the Big Ten Tournament. It is also possible that the committee overemphasizes Maryland’s 326th-ranked non-conference strength of schedule, limiting the Terrapins’ seeding a bit, but I am confident that they are at least somewhere on the No. 4 line as things stand.
Wisconsin – No. 4 Seed (No. 14 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 3 Seed (No. 10 overall)
Wisconsin had two potential trap games this week, and the Badgers went 1-1. Wisconsin defeated its rival Minnesota 74-67 on the road to pick up a Quad 2 win, but then lost at home to Penn State 86-75, picking up a Quad 2 loss. The Badgers put themselves in position to win, up 40-35 at the half on the Nittany Lions, but gave up 51 second-half points. Wisconsin is still in a decent position to get a No. 3 seed, but the Badgers’ dreams of getting a No. 2 seed in the tournament have quickly evaporated, with Texas Tech, Iowa State and Texas A&M picking up road wins and St. John’s picking up a signature road win over Marquette as well. Even though Wisconsin is currently barely behind the No. 3 seeds, a win over UCLA in the conference tournament could be enough to get back to that seed line.
Purdue – No. 4 Seed (No. 16 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 4 Seed (No. 13 overall)
Purdue continued its momentum from a win against UCLA last week when it beat Rutgers 100-71 at home. Unfortunately, that momentum was short-lived, as the Boilermakers lost 88-80 on the road against Illinois to end the season. Purdue will now move on to the Big Ten Tournament where the Boilermakers will either play another matchup with Rutgers or a game against USC, who they also defeated at home earlier this season. Purdue is still involved in the fight for a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but the Boilermakers will need to win their first game, and probably a potential quarterfinals matchup against Michigan as well to maintain that seeding.
Oregon – No. 5 Seed (No. 18 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 6 Seed (No. 22 overall)
Oregon beat Indiana 73-64 at home to start the week, then escaped with an 80-73 overtime win on the road against Washington. After losing five straight games to drop to 5-8 in conference play, the Ducks rattled off seven consecutive wins at the end of the season. Oregon didn’t necessarily do anything incredible this week, but enough teams near the Ducks on the seed list lost to necessitate this slight seeding bump. However, the area ranging from the No. 5 seeds through the top half of the No. 7 seed line is tight enough that Oregon could be surpassed during conference tournaments by teams with relatively comparable performances in other conferences — or even within the Big Ten (depending on Illinois and Michigan). All of that is to warn fans not to be too surprised if this seeding changes again before Selection Sunday, despite the relatively small impact conference tournaments tend to have on the Big Dance.
Michigan – No. 6 Seed (No. 21 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 4 Seed (No. 15 overall)
Michigan just can’t put together a complete 40 minutes of basketball. While the Wolverines have escaped with a ton of close victories this season, two slow starts this week ruined Michigan’s chances at wins. The Wolverines trailed No. 13 Maryland 33-22 at the half on Wednesday, and despite the offense exploding for 43 second-half points against a solid Terrapins defense, Michigan lost 71-65 at home. Against No. 8 Michigan State, the Wolverines trailed 20-6 at the under-12 minute media timeout, and trailed 50-28 at halftime. Michigan put together a slight comeback in the second half, but a 12-point deficit at various points in the half was as close as the Wolverines could make it in the 79-62 loss. Michigan’s nine Quad 1 wins are still enough to anchor a solid resume, but predictive metrics do not value this team much at all. The Wolverines need at least one win in the Big Ten Tournament to gain some confidence before the Big Dance, and to get back in the race for a No. 4 seed.
Illinois – No. 6 Seed (No. 24 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 7 Seed (No. 26 overall)
Illinois’ only game of the week was an 88-80 home victory against No. 18 Purdue. The Fighting Illini ended the season on a three-game winning streak, and have turned the corner from the injury-riddled middle portion of the season, partially due to re-energized versions of Tre White and Tomislav Ivisic. As mentioned in my earlier blurb about Oregon, Illinois is in the middle of an incredibly tight group of teams. The Fighting Illini’s resume is good enough to be considered for any spot as high as the final No. 5 seed (currently Louisville’s spot to lose), but Illinois ends up as a No. 6 seed because the quality of the Illini’s best wins aren’t good enough to make up for the high loss quantity compared to other teams in this range. If the Illini can defeat Ohio State and Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament, they could get to a No. 5 seed, but with only one win (no matter if it’s against Iowa or Ohio State), Illinois would remain right on the border of a No. 6 and No. 7 seed.
UCLA – No. 7 Seed (No. 28 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 8 Seed (No. 29 overall)
UCLA defeated Northwestern 73-69 to claim its ninth Quad 1 win of the season. The Bruins returned home and mollywhopped USC 90-63 to close out the regular season. UCLA is the NCAA Tournament lock that could gain the most from a strong showing in the Big Ten Tournament. The Bruins played well at the end of the season, but never claimed a true needle-moving win (from a seeding perspective) after defeating Michigan State in early February. UCLA’s seeding has stayed stagnant because of that, but if the Bruins can get two wins in the Big Ten Tournament, they should be in a comfortable position for a No. 6 seed. With a loss in the quarterfinals, UCLA likely stays as a No. 7 seed, or falls to a No. 8 seed.
Indiana – No. 11 Seed (No. 44 overall, Last Four In)
Previous seeding: No. 11 Seed (No. 44 overall, Last Four In)
Indiana lost a close 73-64 road game against Oregon, but the Hoosiers quickly bounced back with a 66-60 win at home in a big bubble battle against Ohio State. The Hoosiers won four of their final five games, and put themselves in a decent position to make the NCAA Tournament. Indiana technically didn’t move in terms of positioning on the seed list from last week, but trust me, the Hoosiers are much more secure in the tournament field than they were a week ago. Drake winning the MVC eliminated one potential bid-stealer already, and Indiana got favorable results from the other bubble teams that could have passed it. Losses by Texas, North Carolina, Boise State and Nebraska over the weekend shrunk the number of teams that have a legitimate chance at earning an at-large bid by a decent amount. However, if the Hoosiers really want to feel secure heading into Selection Sunday, a win against Oregon in the Big Ten Tournament would do wonders for Indiana’s resume, especially with other bid-stealers still pending.
Ohio State – No. 12 Seed (No. 47 overall, Last Four In)
Previous seeding: No. 11 Seed (No. 42 overall, Last Four Byes)
Last week I said this: “The Buckeyes still need at least one win this week to stay on the right side of the bubble, and probably two wins to feel any bit of security.” Well, Ohio State defeated Nebraska 116-114 in double overtime at home, but fell 66-60 to Indiana on the road. The Buckeyes’ miniscule margin of victory against the Cornhuskers paired with the loss to Indiana means Ohio State is currently the last team in my projected field. Without knowing the precise amount of bid-stealers, it is hard to pinpoint the exact scenario that sneaks the Buckeyes into the NCAA Tournament field, but I would be confident that Ohio State would receive an at-large bid if it defeated Iowa, Illinois and Maryland. That’s a tall task, but if the Buckeyes only beat Iowa and Illinois, that would be cutting it too close.
Nebraska – Out
Previous seeding: First Four Out
Nebraska’s collapse is one that needs to be studied. The Cornhuskers went from a candidate for a comfortable single-digit seed to a team that was in good position on the bubble and then ended the season without even making it to the Big Ten Tournament, let alone the Big Dance. This week, Nebraska lost 116-114 in a heartbreaking double-overtime game against Ohio State, then lost 83-68 at home to Iowa. The Cornhuskers ended the regular season on a five-game losing streak, have no chance of getting an at-large bid and could even miss out on an invite to the College Basketball Crown tournament.
Northwestern – Out
Previous seeding: Next Four Out
Northwestern lost 73-69 to UCLA at home after almost pulling off a miraculous comeback, and then the ‘Cats fell 74-61 to No. 13 Maryland on the road. Northwestern fought hard in the second half of the Big Ten slate to recover from season-ending injuries to both Jalen Leach and Brooks Barnhizer, but the Wildcats are going to be auto-bid or bust in the Big Ten Tournament. That journey will have to start with a win against Minnesota, who the ‘Cats beat 75-63 on the road in late February.
Penn State – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Penn State had the entire week to gear up for its matchup against No. 12 Wisconsin, and the Nittany Lions were able to successfully pull off the upset at the Kohl Center, spoiling the Badgers’ senior sendoff. The 86-75 road victory by Penn State is just another sign of the potential this team had when it fired on all cylinders, but the Nittany Lions’ inability to get over the hump in close games during the middle portion of the season is what has them going home early. Despite missing the conference tournament, Penn State’s metrics are actually good enough that the Nittany Lions have the third-best resume of a Big Ten team who clearly isn’t in the tournament picture.
Iowa – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Iowa lost 91-84 to Michigan State at home in a surprisingly competitive game, and then went on the road and beat Nebraska 83-68 to sneak in the back door of the Big Ten Tournament. Against Nebraska on the final day of the season, Iowa claimed its first Quad 1 victory. Too little, too late, but the Hawkeyes did end the regular season 1-14 in Quad 1 instead of 0-15. Every game Iowa plays in the Big Ten Tournament will be a Quad 1 opportunity (not that it matters anymore), starting with a matchup against Ohio State. Iowa is the second of many teams who won’t make the NCAA Tournament without winning the Big Ten Tournament.
USC – Out
Previous seeding: Out
USC ended the regular season on the right end of one blowout, and the wrong end of another one. The Trojans beat Washington 92-61 at home and lost 90-63 on the road to UCLA. USC has no chance at an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament, but the Trojans did sneak into the Big Ten Tournament as the No. 14 seed, where they will take on Rutgers with a chance to start a potential cinderella run.
Rutgers – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Rutgers led 27-19 against Purdue with 10:13 left the first half. Unfortunately, it was all downhill from there, as Purdue closed the half on an extended 31-14 run, and won 100-71. The Scarlet Knights bounced back at home with a 75-67 overtime victory against Minnesota, giving them the No. 11 seed in the Big Ten tournament, where they will take on USC. Of course Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper are a scary duo and could catch fire in Indianapolis, but at this point in the season, it’s hard to see the Scarlet Knights sneaking up on anyone, especially with NCAA Tournament seeding on the line.
Minnesota – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Minnesota had another opportunity to play spoiler this week. The Golden Gophers could have put a massive dent in No. 12 Wisconsin’s resume with a senior night victory, but the Badgers escaped The Barn with a 74-67 victory. Minnesota moved on to a clash with Rutgers, but the Scarlet Knights came away with a 75-67 overtime victory. However, the Golden Gophers still made the Big Ten Tournament as the No. 12 seed and will hope to avenge their late-February loss to Northwestern in a rematch on Wednesday.
Washington – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Washington started the week with a 92-61 loss on the road against USC, but then returned home to take on Oregon. Washington almost played spoiler to their rival’s resume, but the Huskies came up a little short against the Ducks, falling 80-73 in overtime at home. Washington ended the season on a six-game losing streak and will not be participating in the Big Ten Tournament.