Michigan State passes Michigan for pole position in the Big Ten title race.
The first conference tournament action will tip off in six days, but everything in the Big Ten is still on the line: the regular season title, conference tournament seeding and which three teams will miss the conference tournament altogether are still up in the air. This week alone, Michigan State and Michigan fought for control of the conference, while in the middle of the conference standings, Ohio State and Nebraska tumbled toward the bubble from safe territory. Meanwhile, Indiana fought back into the bubble picture as well. The season is shaping up for an incredible finish as Big Ten teams jockey for positioning within the bracket for the Big Dance.
Michigan State – No. 3 Seed (No. 9 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 4 Seed (No. 14 overall)
Michigan State lost three of four games against middle-of-the-pack teams in the conference standings, a bad omen before playing four straight games against teams in the top five of the conference standings. But just when the Spartans started to fade, they rose up to the challenge. Michigan State beat No. 13 Purdue 75-66 at home to start the week, and followed it up with a 75-62 road win against No. 12 Michigan. The Spartans still have a tough road ahead of them, as they face No. 20 Maryland on the road and No. 11 Wisconsin at home before the next edition of this column. However, even with the tough upcoming schedule, the Spartans have won enough quality games in the last few weeks to sharpen the weaker parts of their resume, regardless of whether they win a Big Ten title or not.
Wisconsin – No. 3 Seed (No. 10 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 3 Seed (No. 9 overall)
Wisconsin extended its win streak to five games at the beginning of the week with a 95-74 win against Illinois at home. However, the streak ended there, as Oregon went on the road and defeated the Badgers in the Kohl Center 77-73 in overtime. Wisconsin took a bit of a hit in a few metrics after that loss, but so many teams around the Badgers on the seed list also lost this weekend that it didn’t drop them too far. Wisconsin plays Michigan State next Sunday, but the other three games on the Badgers’ schedule are against bottom five teams in the conference standings. As long as Wisconsin avoids a bad loss, it will end up with a top four seed.
Purdue – No. 4 Seed (No. 13 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 3 Seed (No. 10 overall)
Purdue has completely lost any sense of momentum it had earlier this year, and it comes down to lack of offensive production. This week, the Boilermakers lost 75-66 to No. 14 Michigan State and lost 73-58 to Indiana, both on the road. Purdue has lost its last four games after winning its previous four, and the offensive stats tell an even worse story. After averaging 88.0 points per game in wins over Michigan, Indiana, Iowa and USC, the Boilermakers have scored just 70.3 points per game in losses against Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State and Indiana. Purdue now has a good chance of making unfortunate history as the second team ever to claim a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament Committee’s initial Top 16 reveal, but then subsequently fall from the top 16 overall seeds on Selection Sunday.
Michigan – No. 4 Seed (No. 14 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 3 Seed (No. 12 overall)
Michigan won six consecutive games heading into a clash with No. 14 Michigan State at home, with the winner claiming first place in the Big Ten standings, but the Spartans came out on top on Friday with a 75-62 rivalry win. Michigan started out slow in both halves, getting outscored 16-8 in the first seven minutes of the first half, and 12-4 in the first seven minutes of the second half. Michigan State’s hot defensive starts in each half, along with a Tre Holloman 9-2 solo run in the middle of the second half, was more than enough to hand the Wolverines a loss. The good news for Michigan is that, similar to Wisconsin’s situation, teams around the Wolverines (Arizona and Kentucky, to name a few) also lost games this weekend, and the top of the seed list at this point in the year is always relatively stagnant.
Maryland – No. 5 Seed (No. 18 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 5 Seed (No. 20 overall)
You could make the argument that Maryland is the hottest team in the Big Ten right now. The Terrapins have won eight of their last nine games and their last four in a row following a 73-70 road loss to Ohio State, and none of their games recently have been particularly close. This week, Maryland beat USC 88-71. The Terrapins only got three bench points in that matchup, but if your starters score 85, bench points don’t really matter. Maryland’s starting five is the best starting unit in the conference, and if the bench starts to contribute even ten combined points per game, this team will be lethal in March.
UCLA – No. 7 Seed (No. 26 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 7 Seed (No. 26 overall)
This week, UCLA lost 64-61 to Minnesota at home, but defeated Ohio State 69-61. It may not always be pretty basketball to watch, and it does occasionally cost them a game, but the Bruins are going to lean on their defense for wins. UCLA hasn’t scored 80-plus points in a game since an 82-76 win at USC on Jan. 27, but the Bruins have gone 5-2 in seven games since that victory. UCLA’s lack of consistent scoring is the lone factor holding the Bruins back, but UCLA has hit a stable enough level that it should stay in position for a No. 6 or No. 7 seed in the tournament.
Oregon – No. 7 Seed (No. 27 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 7 Seed (No. 28 overall)
Is early season Oregon back? The Ducks snapped a five-game losing streak with a win against Northwestern a few weeks ago, and now Oregon has won four consecutive games. This week, the Ducks defeated Iowa 80-78 on the road, and then defeated No. 11 Wisconsin 77-73 in overtime. Oregon didn’t need a week like this to boost its resume, but the Ducks did need performances like these to prove they still have what it takes to beat great teams. Still, Oregon gets a tiny bump in seeding from a good week, and the Ducks look to continue that level of play going forward.
Illinois – No. 8 Seed (No. 32 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 7 Seed (No. 25 overall)
Illinois lost 95-74 to No. 14 Wisconsin and then got hammered 110-67 by No. 2 Duke at Madison Square Garden in a rare late-February non-conference game. That means the Fighting Illini gave up 205 points in two games this week. It doesn’t really matter who you play, how many threes you take or make, or how many first-round picks you have on your team if you just can’t play defense. Per Bart Torvik, the Illini were the ninth-best team in the country before the week started, and their defense was a top-20 unit in the nation. T-Rank now has Illinois as the 23rd-best team in the country with the 36th-best defense. The only good news for Illinois is that the bubble is so weak this year that a team with 11 wins against Quad 1 and Quad 2 teams (which Illinois does have) is virtually untouchable by the actual bubble teams, even if the Illini dip severely in seeding.
Nebraska – No. 11 Seed (No. 44 overall, Last Four In)
Previous seeding: No. 10 Seed (No. 37 overall)
Nebraska has simply not performed up to expectations over the past few weeks. The Cornhuskers got hot with four straight wins after six consecutive losses, but since then, they have alternated wins and losses. After narrowly escaping with a road win against a depleted Northwestern team last weekend, Nebraska took on Penn State on the road in its only game of the week. The ‘Huskers shot 51.9% from the field, but allowed Penn State to shoot 60.7% from the field in an 89-72 loss. Luckily for Nebraska, the Nittany Lions won by so much that the loss goes down as a Quad 1 loss (for now), but the Cornhuskers absolutely need to play better down the stretch if they want to make the NCAA Tournament.
Ohio State – No. 11 Seed (No. 45 overall, Last Four In)
Previous seeding: No. 9 Seed (No. 35 overall)
Ohio State lost 70-49 to a short-handed Northwestern team at home and followed that up with a 69-61 loss on the road against UCLA. After beating Maryland and destroying Washington at home, it seemed like all Ohio State needed to do was protect its home court towards the end of the season and avoid any bad losses. This week, the Buckeyes failed to do either of those two things. Ohio State now needs wins in two of its last three games — against fellow bubble teams USC, Nebraska and Indiana — or the Buckeyes will be sweating profusely on Selection Sunday.
Indiana – First Four Out
Previous seeding: First Four Out
Indiana has finally started to claim the signature wins it needs to sneak into the Big Dance. After losing seven of eight games, including five consecutive losses, the Hoosiers have now won two of their last three (all three games were against Quad 1 opponents). The most recent victory was a 73-58 win in an all-important rivalry matchup with No. 13 Purdue. The Hoosiers mixed up their starting lineup by sending Oumar Ballo to the bench, and after trailing 37-25 at the half, they used a 28-3 run to take the lead and didn’t look back from there. Indiana outscored Purdue 48-21 in the final 20 minutes in a potentially season-changing second half. The Hoosiers are now the first team out of my projected NCAA Tournament field, but Indiana must go 2-0 against Penn State and Washington this week to stay in a good position on the bubble.
Iowa – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Iowa played Oregon very close, but came up just short, losing 80-78 to the Ducks. However, the Hawkeyes bounced back later in the week, defeating Washington 85-79 to improve to 15-12 overall and 6-10 in Big Ten play. Iowa is starting to adjust to life without Owen Freeman, but the Hawkeyes have a tough schedule looming. Three of their final four games are on the road, with the lone home game coming against a red-hot Michigan State team. One win might be enough to make the Big Ten Tournament, but where that win will come from is still a mystery.
Northwestern – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Northwestern conjured up a masterful performance against Ohio State, holding the Buckeyes under 50 points in a 70-49 demolition on the road. The Wildcats are still just fighting to make the Big Ten Tournament with a short-handed roster, but Northwestern does have games coming up against both Minnesota and Iowa this week. If the ‘Cats can rattle off two victories, they will be in a good place in terms of making the Big Ten Tournament but nonetheless are still far out of Big Dance consideration.
USC – Out
Previous seeding: Out
USC got hot for a week or two, but the Trojans have gone cold ever since the injury bug hit them. USC lost 88-71 to Maryland and 95-85 to Rutgers in a very unsuccessful East Coast trip. The Trojans will close the season with four games on the West Coast, but with USC’s lackluster non-conference performance this season, the Trojans’ chances of getting an at-large bid are minimal, even if they somehow win out and get to 10-10 in Big Ten play.
Rutgers – Out
Previous seeding: Out
They might not make the Big Dance, but Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper are more likely than ever to be playing in the Big Ten Tournament. The Scarlet Knights entered the week at 5-10 in conference play, and they got two wins to get back into the middle of the pack in the Big Ten. Rutgers won 89-85 in overtime against Washington on the road, and followed that up with a 95-85 win against USC at home. However, it’s hard to imagine a team with two Quad 3 losses and 14 overall losses having a legitimate shot at making the NCAA Tournament.
Penn State – Out
Previous seeding: Out
It might be too little, too late, but Penn State has finally started to win a few games in conference play. The Nittany Lions had lost seven consecutive games, but defeated Nebraska 89-72 at home and beat Minnesota 69-60 on the road this week. At the very least, Penn State deserves some credit for pulling itself out from the bottom of the Big Ten standings. With an even more optimistic outlook, you could say the Nittany Lions are now one win away from being tied in the win column of the standings with Rutgers, Minnesota, Iowa and USC, who are all fighting for the final few spots in the Big Ten Tournament.
Minnesota – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Oops! They did it again. Minnesota was seeing red on its West Coast trip, going 2-0 against USC and UCLA. Last weekend, the Golden Gophers defeated the Trojans, but this week, it was the Bruins who fell victim to Minnesota’s upset brigade. The Golden Gophers won 64-61 on the road against UCLA, but couldn’t continue the momentum at home against Penn State, losing 69-60 in that battle. Minnesota will likely sneak into the Big Ten Tournament, but the Golden Gophers could make that a certainty with one more win.
Washington – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Washington had alternated wins and losses in its last five games before this week, but the Huskies struggled to maintain or improve on that pattern. Washington lost 89-85 in overtime to Rutgers at home to start the week and lost 85-79 on the road against Iowa over the weekend. The Huskies are last in the conference standings, and will need multiple upset victories to make the conference tournament in Indianapolis.