The race for the regular season Big Ten title keeps heating up.
Purdue has now taken over first place in the conference standings with another flawless week, but Michigan State (1-2 in its last three games) and Michigan (four-game winning streak following a road loss to Purdue) aren’t too far behind. Wisconsin, UCLA and Maryland have all turned up the heat lately as well, leading to those six Big Ten teams all somewhere in the conversation for a top four seed in the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, the log jam in the middle of the conference standings has made for some surprising conversations about Big Ten teams on the bubble.
Purdue – No. 2 Seed (No. 6 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 3 Seed (No. 9 overall)
Purdue started the week by picking up a 90-81 road win against Iowa, and continued its success with a dominant 90-72 win at home against USC. The Boilermakers are now 14-5 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games this season, and given the chaos of the past few weeks in college basketball and Purdue’s top ten metrics across the board, the Boilermakers are currently closer to taking the final No. 1 seed than they are to falling to a No. 3 seed. That could be Purdue’s peak seed; however, as the Boilermakers’ next three games include road dates with both Michigan and Michigan State and a home game against a great Wisconsin team.
Wisconsin – No. 3 Seed (No. 11 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 4 Seed (No. 13 overall)
Wisconsin has now won three games in a row, but this week was just about taking care of business and not looking too far into the future. The Badgers defeated Indiana 76-64 at home and carried their momentum into a road matchup against Iowa, where Wisconsin won 74-63. The Badgers have one of the most well-rounded resumes in the country, with metrics across the board sitting somewhere within the top 20. Wisconsin’s only losses are in Quad 1 games and with a great record against a tough schedule, the Badgers are easily in line for a top-four seed as things stand.
Michigan State – No. 3 Seed (No. 12 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 3 seed (No. 12 overall)
Michigan State hit a little bit of a rough patch for about five halves of basketball against West Coast teams, but the Spartans are still in a good place in the bracket. Michigan State’s 9-0 start in Big Ten play was spoiled by USC before the last update, and a 63-61 loss to UCLA made it an 0-2 road trip for the Spartans. Michigan State did well to battle back after trailing for most of the game against the Bruins, but the momentum didn’t carry over to the first half of a matchup with Oregon at home. The Spartans gave up 50 first-half points at home and trailed by 14 points at the half. But once again, Michigan State’s resilience shined when the Spartans scored 50 points of their own in the second half to end up with an 86-74 win.
Michigan – No. 5 Seed (No. 17 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 5 seed (No. 18 overall)
At this point, it feels like you just know what to expect from Michigan. The Wolverines will play a few amazing minutes, and then they will embark on long, frustrating scoring droughts fraught with turnovers to keep their opponents close. Although Michigan picked up one Quad 1 win and one Quad 2 win in a 2-0 week, that story was evident again. The Wolverines led Oregon 70-58 before three Roddy Gayle Jr. turnovers in four possessions allowed the Ducks to eventually claw into the lead and cut it to 72-68. Michigan eventually escaped with an 80-76 victory, but the same story unfolded at Assembly Hall against Indiana. The Wolverines led 49-32 early in the second half, but Indiana went on a 20-4 run to cut the deficit to 53-52. Both teams traded buckets for the rest of the game before Michigan eventually iced a 70-67 win at the free throw line. Although the eye test isn’t always pretty, the Wolverines just need to keep winning to improve their seeding even more.
UCLA – No. 6 Seed (No. 22 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 7 Seed (No. 28 overall)
There are teams all around the conference who have caught fire lately, but none of those teams can say they have won more than five games in a row. Well, no one except the Bruins. UCLA is now 9-4 in conference play after winning seven games in a row, most recently home games against Michigan State and Penn State. The Bruins defeated No. 9 Michigan State 63-61, thanks to a game-winning layup by Eric Dailey Jr. with seven seconds left. UCLA then boat raced Penn State 78-54, led by Kobe Johnson’s 15 points, 13 rebounds, six assists and four steals. Those two wins are just the latest in a stretch of dominance by the Bruins which has them trending towards a No. 5 or 6 seed.
Maryland – No. 6 Seed (No. 24 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 6 seed (No. 23 overall)
Maryland could have easily gone 2-0 this week, but the Terrapins are still in a good position when it comes to seeding. Maryland led Ohio State by as many as 17 points on the road, but the Buckeyes battled back late and closed out a 73-70 win at home. A Quad 1 road loss isn’t going to do too much to affect a resume this late into the season; however, the ‘Terps bounced back with a 90-81 win against Rutgers at home over the weekend. Derik Queen powered Maryland to the victory with 29 points, 15 rebounds and five assists, and the Terrapins maintained their seed from last week’s update.
Illinois – No. 7 Seed (No. 25 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 5 Seed (No. 20 overall)
It was yet another topsy-turvy week for Illinois. The Fighting Illini couldn’t contain Rutgers’ dynamic freshmen Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, who combined for 46 points, 17 rebounds, seven assists, four blocks and four steals in an 82-73 Scarlet Knights home win. However, Illinois did bounce back by crushing Minnesota 95-74 on the road. The Fighting Illini are still top 15 in the NET, KenPom, BPI and on Bart Torvik, but their KPI, SOR and WAB are all outside the top 25. Illinois closes the year with four home games (UCLA, Michigan State, Iowa and Purdue), two road games (Wisconsin and Michigan) and a neutral site matchup with No. 2 Duke. The Fighting Illini should be targeting a 4-3 record in that span to stay near the same seed line.
Oregon – No. 8 Seed (No. 30 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 6 seed (No. 22 overall)
Oregon is consistently one of the hardest teams to evaluate in every bracket. The NET, KenPom and BPI have always been extremely low on the Ducks, but KPI, SOR and WAB love the Ducks because of their whopping eight Quad 1 wins. Regardless of Oregon’s quality wins early in the season, the quantity of losses recently is highly concerning. The Ducks lost 80-76 on the road against Michigan and lost 86-74 against Michigan State on the road as well. The Ducks have now lost five consecutive games after defeating Washington at home, and sit all the way down at 12th place in the Big Ten standings. If Oregon can keep its loss total to single digits, the Ducks will claim a decent seed, but it’s hard to imagine any team with a sub-.500 conference record (which is what Oregon is trending towards) earning a good seed.
Ohio State – No. 9 Seed (No. 35 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 10 seed (No. 37 overall)
Ohio State continues to play exactly like a typical borderline bubble team: win at home, lose on the road. The Buckeyes did reverse that trend with road wins at Purdue and Penn State to move safely into the field a few weeks ago, but this week, the Buckeyes collected a 73-70 home win against Maryland, while dropping a 79-71 loss at Nebraska. Going 1-1 in two Quad 1 games meant Ohio State’s seeding didn’t change too much, and considering how weak this year’s bubble is, fans shouldn’t be sweating whether or not the Buckeyes will make the tournament as long as they just keep defending their home court.
Nebraska – No. 10 Seed (No. 40 overall, Last Four Byes)
Previous seeding: No. 11 Seed (No. 45 overall, Last Four In)
Nebraska continued its surge up the seed list with a 2-0 week. The Cornhuskers completed a 2-0 road trip by defeating Washington 86-72. That blowout Quad 2 win definitely helped Nebraska climb closer to moving out of Last Four In territory, but the biggest impact on Nebraska’s resume was a 79-71 win against Ohio State at home. That victory gave the Cornhuskers their fifth Quad 1 win of the season, and with the way this team has been playing over the past few weeks, Nebraska could move completely off the bubble very soon.
Indiana – Next Four Out
Previous seeding: Next Four Out
Indiana can still successfully argue that it hasn’t lost a game outside of Quad 1 this season, but at some point the Hoosiers have to change a ton of close losses into at least a few close wins. Indiana is 12-0 in Quad 2, 3 and 4 games, but with a 2-10 record in Quad 1 games, Indiana’s ‘clean’ resume doesn’t hold as much weight. The Hoosiers started this week with a 76-64 loss to Wisconsin on the road, and with an opportunity to bounce back at home against Michigan, they lost 70-67. That second loss came just a day after Indiana announced that coach Mike Woodson would be stepping down at the end of the season. The Hoosiers are still hovering around the bubble, but this team just doesn’t seem to have the clutch gene necessary to win the games it’ll need to win to make it to the Big Dance.
USC – In Consideration
Previous seeding: In Consideration
USC was starting to play a lot better, and that’s when disaster struck. The Trojans embarked on a road trip to take on Northwestern and Purdue, but they had to play both of those games without leading scorer Desmond Claude. Without Claude running the show, USC struggled offensively. The Trojans lost 77-75 to Northwestern despite a late comeback, and then could not handle Mackey Arena, and lost 90-72 in that game as well. It’s now absolutely imperative that USC goes 2-0 in winnable games against Penn State and Minnesota at home this week.
Rutgers – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Rutgers showed once again that it can compete with anyone in the conference this week. The Scarlet Knights defeated No. 23 Illinois 82-73 at home, claiming their fourth Quad 1 win of the season. Rutgers didn’t make it a perfect week, as No. 18 Maryland beat the Scarlet Knights 90-81 at home, but nonetheless, the competitive level Rutgers has shown with both Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper healthy will scare teams in the Big Ten Tournament.
Northwestern – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Northwestern’s week was a story of injuries. After Brooks Barnhizer was ruled out for the remainder of the season last week, the ‘Cats took on the Trojans. Although they beat a Claude-less USC team 77-75, Big Ten Network revealed before Northwestern’s game against Washington that Jalen Leach will miss the remainder of the season as well. Northwestern played the Huskies close, but fell 76-71. The Wildcats’ schedule for the rest of the season is not incredibly challenging, but a short-handed team without much room for error does not look too good on paper.
Iowa – Out
Previous seeding: In Consideration
The news that Iowa lost Owen Freeman for the rest of the season was already enough to start seriously doubting this team’s already slim chances at contending for an NCAA Tournament spot. Things got even worse for the Hawkeyes with the on-court results this week. Iowa had opportunities for Quad 1 wins against both Purdue and Wisconsin, but the Hawkeyes lost 90-81 to the Boilermakers and 74-63 to the Badgers. The season isn’t over just yet, but it’s hard to find a game on Iowa’s schedule that shouldn’t be considered a must-win from now on.
Penn State – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Penn State beat Rutgers 80-72 at home on Jan. 20, but five straight losses since then means the Nittany Lions are now firmly out of the tournament picture. Penn State lost to Minnesota at home 69-61 at the start of the week, and if that loss wasn’t the final nail in the coffin, the Nittany Lions showed no signs of improvement on the road against UCLA, where Penn State lost 78-54. Penn State still has its 81-70 win against Purdue from the very beginning of the season to hold its resume afloat, but other than that win, the Nittany Lions’ resume is severely lacking.
Washington – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Washington just refuses to fall under the .500 mark this season. The Huskies lost 86-72 to Nebraska at home, but bounced back with a 76-71 win against Northwestern to end a 1-1 week. The Huskies have won two of their last three games, but still sit in 17th place in the Big Ten standings with only three home games in their final eight.
Minnesota – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Minnesota continues to play the spoiler role in the Big Ten well. This week, the Golden Gophers went 1-1 overall, but Minnesota secured a 69-61 win on the road against Penn State, effectively ending the Nittany Lions’ chances at an at-large bid. The Golden Gophers fell 95-74 against Illinois, but are still fighting to stay alive in the race for the final spots in the Big Ten Tournament.