Michigan State’s undefeated Big Ten run came to an end over the course of an eventful week.
Now that the calendar has flipped to February, things are starting to become a lot clearer. A Quad 1 loss is starting to mean next to nothing, and barring any ridiculous runs at the end of the season, there are only about eight or nine bubble teams that feel capable of stealing spots in the tournament from teams currently in the field. But the Big Ten title race got a whole lot murkier this week. Michigan State dropped its first game of the conference slate and all five teams sitting at 7-4 or better (Purdue, Michigan, Maryland, UCLA and Wisconsin) have at least one game remaining against the Spartans.
Purdue – No. 3 Seed (No. 9 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 3 Seed (No. 10 overall)
Purdue sent a message to the Big Ten with its dominant win last week against Michigan, but this week’s win at Mackey wasn’t quite as resounding. The Boilermakers still beat rival Indiana 81-76, but ice-cold shooting (Purdue shot 2-of-13 (15.3%) from behind-the-arc on Friday) meant the game was much closer than Purdue fans might have anticipated. Purdue still ranks somewhere within the top ten in every important metric, and with a chaotic week for No. 2 and No. 3 seeds, the Boilermakers became the highest-seeded B1G team and nearly snuck onto the No. 2 seed line.
Michigan State – No. 3 Seed (No. 12 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 2 seed (No. 8 overall)
Michigan State had a close call last weekend against Rutgers before hammering Minnesota at home. This week, the Spartans played the first of two matchups against California’s Big Ten teams. Michigan State fell 70-64 to USC at the Galen Center, snapping a 13-game win streak, and ending the Spartans’ perfect run in conference play. The key to that game was Michigan State slumping just slightly on the offensive end, as well as shooting a weak 11-for-19 (57.9%) from the free throw line. The Spartans are shooting 80.3% from the charity stripe as a team this season, and leaving those eight points on the board proved costly in a tight game. Michigan State takes a bit of a tumble in the bracket, but has ample opportunity to bounce back next week with games at UCLA and against Oregon at home.
Wisconsin – No. 4 Seed (No. 13 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 4 Seed (No. 15 overall)
Wisconsin played two Quad 1 road games this week, and the Badgers went 1-1 in those games. Wisconsin lost 76-68 at Maryland, but avenged that loss with a 75-69 win at Northwestern. The results of those games essentially canceled each other out, and the Badgers remained at .500 (5-5) in Quad 1 games, with no losses against all other quadrants. Solid metrics have Wisconsin firmly in the mix for a No. 3 or No. 4 seed if the Badgers keep winning at the same rate.
Michigan – No. 5 Seed (No. 18 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 6 seed (No. 23 overall)
Once again, it wasn’t a pretty win for Michigan, but the Wolverines beat Rutgers 66-63 sans Dylan Harper, and considering the Wolverines had lost their last three games against Rutgers, they’ll take the win. Michigan turned it over 17 times, but Danny Wolf (16 points, 14 rebounds and four blocks) and Vladislav Goldin (14 points and six rebounds) did just enough to guide the Wolverines to another win. The 8-2 start in the first half of conference play is Michigan’s best start since going 9-1 in the 2020-2021 season en route to a Big Ten regular season title, and the Wolverines have now doubled their win total from all of last season.
Illinois – No. 5 Seed (No. 20 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 4 Seed (No. 16 overall)
Illinois really struggles without Tomislav Ivisic, and this week proved that beyond any reasonable doubt. The Fighting Illini lost 80-74 in overtime against Nebraska on the road, but quickly bounced back with an 87-79 win against Ohio State at home. The Illini remain a very hard team to evaluate because predictive metrics still have this team comfortably in the top 15, while resume metrics have them floating anywhere from the high 20s to low 40s. The key factor for Illinois’ seeding in March will be just how much emphasis the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee places on the team’s performance when fully healthy, considering three of its four losses during the slump have been games where either Ivisic or Kasparas Jakučionis were out with injuries.
Oregon – No. 6 Seed (No. 22 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 4 seed (No. 14 overall)
Oregon had a very rough week. The Ducks started off the week with a 78-52 loss to UCLA on the road, and even though Oregon was searching for a bounce-back win at home last night, the Ducks couldn’t get it. Nebraska is typically known as a tough team to beat in Lincoln, but it was the ‘Huskers who pulled off the 77-71 upset in Eugene. I might sound like a broken record, but the Ducks still built an incredible resume in non-conference play, and their eight Quad 1 wins are tough to overlook. However, Oregon is now 5-6 in conference play, and if this slide continues, the Ducks won’t be anywhere near where they were on the seed line heading into conference play.
Maryland – No. 6 Seed (No. 23 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 7 seed (No. 25 overall)
Okay, we get it, Maryland, the predictive metrics were right about you. The Terrapins defeated then-No. 17 Wisconsin 76-68 on Wednesday night, and now sit at 7-4 in Big Ten play, with wins over both of the other teams tied for fourth place with 7-4 conference records. After losing to Oregon and Washington on the road to start the New Year, Maryland has won six of its last seven games, while picking up four Quad 1 wins in that span. As long as Maryland can avoid bad losses and pick up a few more good wins this season, the Terps will comfortably claim a single-digit seed in March.
UCLA – No. 7 Seed (No. 28 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 8 Seed (No. 29 overall)
Maybe Mick Cronin calling out his team wasn’t such a bad idea, after all. Although the Bruins lost two more games after Cronin questioned his team’s toughness and defense against Michigan, UCLA has now rattled off five consecutive wins. This week, the Bruins took on a familiar opponent and absolutely demolished then-No. 16 Oregon 78-52 at Pauley Pavilion. UCLA has two home games this week, against Michigan State and Penn State, with an opportunity to climb the bracket even more.
Ohio State – No. 10 Seed (No. 37 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 10 seed (No. 40 overall, Last Four Byes)
Ohio State was very close to pulling off what Maryland did a few weeks ago: two Quad 1 road wins in the same week. Although the Buckeyes were able to easily defeat Penn State 83-64, Ohio State fell short against then-No. 18 Illinois 87-79. The Buckeyes were on fire from beyond the arc in that game, shooting 11-of-23 (47.8%), but they shot just 16-of-50 (32%) on two-pointers. Nevertheless, 1-1 in two Quad 1 road games is outperforming expectations for a team close to the bubble, and Ohio State received a small boost in my bracket as a result.
Nebraska – No. 11 Seed (No. 45 overall, Last Four In)
Previous seeding: In Consideration
Nebraska lost six games in a row and fell to 2-7 in Big Ten play, but it turns out two games against ranked opponents were all the ‘Huskers needed for a wakeup call. Nebraska started off the week with an 80-74 win against then-No. 18 Illinois in an overtime thriller at home. The ‘Huskers pulling off an upset at home was hardly surprising until the momentum carried over to a West Coast trip. Nebraska beat then-No. 16 Oregon 77-71 on the road, and all of a sudden, with two extra Quad 1 wins in their pocket, the ‘Huskers stole the last spot in the tournament field from UCF. As long as Nebraska ends the West Coast trip 2-0 (i.e. if they beat Washington), the Cornhuskers should remain in the field next week as well.
Indiana – Next Four Out
Previous seeding: Next Four Out
Indiana was so close to adding another Quad 1 win to its resume, but the Hoosiers came up just a bit short again. Despite leading Purdue 76-75 with less than 30 seconds left, Indiana gave up a go-ahead jumper to Trey Kaufman-Renn, and after Myles Rice’s attempt to win it for the Hoosiers was blocked, Purdue knocked down four free throws to escape with an 81-76 win. Indiana keeping all of these games close is a lot better than what other teams on the bubble have been doing recently, but the Hoosiers need to start turning clutch-time situations into wins if they want to make the tournament.
USC – In Consideration
Previous seeding: Out
USC upset then-No. 7 Michigan State 70-64 over the weekend. I said the following last week about USC’s season: “If the Trojans can somehow find a way to hand Michigan State its first conference loss of the season…they might start to become a serious part of the tournament conversation.” The Trojans probably didn’t read my article, but they definitely understood just how important a win against Michigan State — who was previously unbeaten in conference play — could be, and they converted on that significant opportunity. Given USC’s early-season struggles (including losing to Saint Mary’s by 35 and losing to a bad California team at home), there is still more work to be done for the Trojans to enter the field, but they are firmly in the conversation with a little more than a month of the season left.
Iowa – In Consideration
Previous seeding: In Consideration
Iowa has not played a game since losing to Ohio State on the road last Monday, and the Hawkeyes are hanging onto the bubble by a thread. A tough home stand against Purdue and Wisconsin this week is a good opportunity to tack on a quality win to move closer to the cut line.
Northwestern – Out
Previous seeding: First Four Out
Northwestern had a huge opportunity in the last five days to move itself from squarely on the bubble into the field, but the Wildcats had a horrendous week instead. Ace Bailey took over the game on Wednesday, and the ‘Cats suffered a 79-72 Quad 2 loss at home to a surging Scarlet Knights team that enters the week at No. 75 in the NET. Later in the week, the ‘Cats led the Badgers 31-25 at halftime, but Wisconsin scored 50 points in the second half, and won 75-69. The worst news of the week came off the court; when Brooks Barnhizer was ruled out for the rest of the season following Saturday’s loss against then-No. 17 Wisconsin. The 0-2 week already knocked Northwestern off the bubble, but the negative injury news might have sealed Northwestern’s fate for the season.
Penn State – Out
Previous seeding: In Consideration
Penn State had an opportunity to pick up one of the easiest available Quad 1 wins in the country, but the Nittany Lions failed to capitalize. No offense to Ohio State, but objectively, as the No. 26 team in the NET, a home game against the Buckeyes is a pretty great opportunity to pick up an easy Quad 1 win. Instead, it was the Buckeyes walked out of State College with an 83-64 blowout win, knocking Penn State off the bubble for the time being. The Nittany Lions have been competitive all year, but with a 3-8 record in Quad 1 and 2 games (2-9 if Rutgers slips lower than No. 75), Penn State has extremely underwhelming resume metrics.
Rutgers – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Rutgers had two opportunities to get Quad 1 victories, and the Scarlet Knights came away with a 1-1 week. Without Dylan Harper playing, the week was a tale of two Ace Bailey performances that were complete opposites of each other. Bailey went off for 37 points on 13-of-20 shooting (5-of-8 on threes) and three blocks in a 79-72 road win at Northwestern. However, Bailey struggled to deal with Michigan’s unique mix of length and physicality on the wings, scoring just 10 points on 3-of-15 shooting (0-of-7 on threes) in a 66-63 loss at home. The Scarlet Knights would need to go on a tear at the end of the season to overcome an 0-2 record in Quad 3 games, but Rutgers remains an intriguing possible Cinderella story for the Big Ten tournament.
Washington – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Washington defeated Minnesota 71-68 on the road. After ranked Michigan and Oregon teams failed to defeat the Golden Gophers on the road, the Huskies were able to claim their second Big Ten win of the season. Washington has finally climbed out of the bottom spot in this article with a clear metric advantage over Minnesota, and it now boasts a head-to-head win against the Gophers as well. The Huskies still have a ton of work to do to get anywhere near the tournament conversation, but the Minnesota game was just the first of a stretch of seven consecutive games against teams with losing Big Ten records.
Minnesota – Out
Previous seeding: Out
The Golden Gophers lost 71-68 at home to Washington this weekend. The eye test would tell you that Minnesota is playing better basketball now than they were at the beginning of the season, but the Golden Gophers still only have three conference wins to show for it. It doesn’t get any easier for Minnesota, either. The Golden Gophers take on a hungry Penn State team on the road and then welcome Illinois to The Barn before the next update (where it might be time for Minnesota’s 2024-2025 season to finally be buried).