There are two B1G teams who remain undefeated in conference play, and they both reside in ‘The Wolverine State’.
I guess the more things change, the more they stay the same. Six of the seven teams with the most conference championships in B1G history (Michigan State, Michigan, Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin and Indiana) are currently in the top seven of the B1G standings. The team challenging that old guard is new conference addition Oregon, which has reclaimed its spot atop B1G teams in bracketology after picking up two more quality wins last week.
Oregon – No. 2 Seed (No. 7 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 3 seed (No. 11 overall)
The Ducks picked up two Quad 1 wins this week, pushing their Quad 1 record to 8-1 for the season and moving one win in that category behind No. 1 Auburn for both the best Quad 1 record (with a five-game minimum) and most Quad 1 wins in the country. Against Ohio State, Oregon trailed 71-70 with seven seconds left before Jackson Shelstad drew a shooting foul and knocked down two free throws to take the lead. The Ducks escaped with a 73-71 win, and the successful East Coast trip continued when Oregon beat Penn State 82-81. The Ducks led 41-34 at the half, but Penn State took a 74-68 lead with 3:45 left, forcing Oregon to rely on late-game heroics once again to escape with another victory.
Michigan State – No. 3 Seed (No. 12 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 4 seed (No. 15 overall)
Michigan State started out the week by demolishing Washington 88-54. The Spartans then continued the successful week with a 78-68 win on the road against Northwestern. While Jaden Akins led Michigan State in scoring in both games and is the leading scorer on the team this season, the Spartans exemplify what balanced contributions look like. Ten Spartans average 13+ minutes per game, and eight of those players average between six and 10 points per game this season. Michigan State has now won nine games in a row, including its first five games in B1G play. The last time the Spartans lost was Nov. 26 in the Maui Invitational against Memphis. Although the schedule this week wasn’t too challenging, Michigan State has surged in the projected bracket by keeping its resume very clean. The Spartans have a major opportunity to earn a statement win this week when they take on No. 13 Illinois at the Breslin Center.
Purdue – No. 4 Seed (No. 13 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 5 Seed (No. 19 overall)
Purdue has had its fair share of struggles in Piscataway, NJ, but not this year. The Boilermakers held Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper to just 23 combined points on 7-of-24 shooting in a 68-50 road win against Rutgers. The more impressive Purdue performance came on Sunday, however. The Boilermakers obliterated Nebraska 104-68 at home in the first game this season where Purdue really looked like it could reach the dominant heights from years past. The Boilermakers went 1-1 in their two early-December B1G games, but recently Purdue hasn’t even come close to losing any games. Say what you want about the strength of schedule in conference play, but you can’t dispute the fact that the Boilermakers have now won four B1G games since the calendar turned over, and the closest scores were two 18-point wins.
Illinois – No. 4 Seed (No. 14 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 3 Seed (No. 9 overall)
Illinois became one of the first teams to play three games in a week this season, and two of them were without Kasparas Jakučionis. The Fighting Illini went 1-1 in those games, with extremely different results. In its first game of the week, Illinois boat raced Penn State 91-52, but in its second game of the week, the Fighting Illini lost 82-72 at home to USC. Jakučionis came back for the third Illinois game of the week, when the Illini beat Indiana on the road 94-69. Overall, a 2-1 week considering the big injury isn’t going to be too negative for Illinois, but the slight drop in seeding results from the teams around them claiming big wins.
Michigan – No. 4 Seed (No. 15 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 4 seed (No. 16 overall)
Michigan beat Washington 91-75 on Sunday to improve to 5-0 in B1G play. Although Vladislav Goldin leads the Wolverines in scoring and ranks fourth in the country in field goal percentage (69.4%), I want to take a minute to highlight the improvement and contributions from Nimari Burnett this season. In 2023-24, Burnett averaged 9.6 points per game, while shooting 39.9% from the field and 34.7% from behind the arc. This season, Burnett is averaging 10.9 points, while shooting 56.7% from the field and 50.7% from behind the arc. He often gets lost in the shuffle at Michigan, but the Wolverines wouldn’t be the same offensively without Burnett, who is the nation’s leader in true shooting percentage (74.8%) and ranks third in the nation in effective field goal percentage (73.6%) according to Kenpom. He scored 16 points on 6-of-6 shooting (4-of-4 on threes) against Washington and has shot 10-of-13 on threes in the Wolverines’ three most recent conference games.
Wisconsin – No. 6 Seed (No. 21 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 6 Seed (No. 21 overall)
Wisconsin played two home games this week and didn’t get tripped up in either of those games. The Badgers started off the week with an 80-59 victory against Minnesota, and finished it with a nail-biting 70-68 victory against Ohio State. Wisconsin has had a season of runs this year, but it is playing at its peak right now. The Badgers started 8-0 and climbed to No. 11 in the AP poll before losing three straight to Michigan, Marquette, and Illinois and falling out of the rankings entirely. But that loss against Illinois was all the way back on Dec. 10, and Wisconsin has now won six straight games, allowing the Badgers to reclaim a spot in the AP poll and a No. 6 seed in the bracket.
Maryland – No. 9 Seed (No. 34 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 11 seed (No. 41 overall, Last Four Byes)
Maryland started out the week with a 79-61 win against then-No. 22 UCLA. Unfortunately for the Terrapins, that win didn’t even stay a Quad 1 win for a week as the Bruins continued their downwards spiral. Maryland beat Minnesota 77-71 after trailing by as many as seven points in the second half, but a close win against the consensus worst team in the conference isn’t exactly a needle-mover. The Terrapins have continuously lacked wins to bring their resume metrics more in line with their predictive metrics; however, so Maryland fans should be satisfied that a relatively average week for a tournament team moved their team completely off the bubble.
Nebraska – No. 10 Seed (No. 39 overall, Last Four Byes)
Previous seeding: No. 9 Seed (No. 33 overall)
Nebraska lost 104-68 on the road against then-No. 20 Purdue on Sunday. Even though Mackey Arena is a tough place to play, the ‘Huskers would have benefitted a ton from putting up more of a fight. Nebraska only has four losses this season, but losing by 35+ in multiple B1G games in the same season is a rough blow to a resume, even though the Cornhuskers are still a tournament team for now. The worrying stat for Nebraska is that the ‘Huskers are 1-4 in Quad 1 games this season (update based on UCLA ranking), and the win over UCLA at home becomes less important the more the Bruins continue to slide.
Ohio State – No. 10 Seed (No. 40 overall, Last Four Byes)
Previous seeding: No. 9 seed (No. 36 overall)
Ohio State lost both of its games this week in close fashion against two top-six teams in the conference standings. The Buckeyes started off the week with a 73-71 loss to Oregon at home and followed that up with a 70-68 loss on the road against No. 24 Wisconsin. It’s somewhat surprising to see that Ohio State still has a good chance of making the tournament even with seven losses, but when a team schedules tough opponents and has five extremely close losses in some of those games, that team often goes unpunished by the tournament committee as long as it picks up a few quality wins along the way.
UCLA – No. 11 Seed (No. 41 overall, Last Four Byes)
Previous seeding: No. 7 Seed (No. 27 overall)
The bigger they are, the harder they fall. It was only two weeks ago when UCLA was ranked No. 15 in the AP poll, and was a projected No. 3 seed in my bracket. Since then, the Bruins have lost four straight games and are now closer to missing the tournament altogether than getting a top-four seed. UCLA’s tumble this week came from a road trip all the way east to Maryland and Rutgers. The Bruins lost 79-61 to the Terrapins, although the score sat at 60-51 before UCLA coach Mick Cronin spotted Maryland four free throws by getting himself ejected. Desperately needing a bounce-back performance, the Bruins fell short again. UCLA squandered a 35-32 lead against Rutgers, eventually falling 75-68 to the Scarlet Knights to end a very disappointing week.
Iowa – First Four Out
Previous seeding: First Four Out
Iowa had a very inconsistent week. After dominating Indiana 85-60 at home on Saturday, the Hawkeyes dropped their first game of a two-game West Coast trip. Iowa allowed Desmond Claude (25 points), Saint Thomas (24 points) and Wesley Yates III (21 points) to completely take over the game at the Galen Center, and USC won 99-89. For now, the game goes into the books as a low Quad 1 loss so it won’t kill the Hawkeyes’ resume, but Iowa’s 5-0 record against Quad 2 means less and less considering the Hawkeyes are now 0-5 against Quad 1. Iowa desperately needs a true signature win to cement itself as a tournament team.
Indiana – Next Four Out
Previous seeding: First Four Out
The Hoosiers started out the week with an 82-69 win against USC, but the next two games didn’t go nearly as well. Indiana lost 85-60 at Iowa to start the week and desperately needing a stronger performance. The Hoosiers couldn’t find one against No. 19 Illinois. Indiana actually outscored Illinois in the second half, but that was a feeble attempt at a comeback considering the Hoosiers trailed 60-32 at the half. It’s not the first time Indiana has come out completely flat in a game (see matchups against SIUE and Gonzaga for reference), and despite starting the new year with three straight B1G wins, two straight losses means the Hoosiers remain on the outside looking in.
Penn State – In Consideration
Previous seeding: Next Four Out
I said last week that if Penn State could pull out a 1-1 week, the Nittany Lions should make an appearance in the bracket again. Unfortunately, Penn State lost 91-52 to an Illinois team that was missing its lead guard, Kasparas Jakučionis, to begin the week. The Nittany Lions had a good bounce-back performance against No. 13 Oregon, but they came up just short of an upset, and lost 82-81 to the Ducks. Penn State has now slid of the tournament picture, but if the Nittany Lions somehow beat Michigan State at the Breslin Center and then take care of business against Rutgers at home, they will be back in the thick of things.
Northwestern – In Consideration
Previous seeding: In Consideration
Northwestern lost 78-68 to Michigan State over the weekend, but let’s go back even farther into the past. In the Week 9 edition of this column, I said the following: “It seems harsh to judge this early in the season, but if the ‘Cats go 3-2 in that stretch [at Penn State, at Purdue, vs. Michigan State, vs. Maryland and at Michigan], they’re a tournament team in position for a No. 8 or No. 9 seed. If they end up 2-3, that eliminates any margin of error for the rest of the season, and they’ll stay entrenched on the bubble.” The Wildcats are 0-3 in the first three games of that gauntlet. 2-3 in that stretch was a record that would really only keep the ‘Cats in the conversation, but winning against Maryland at home or on the road against No. 20 Michigan is going to require a much better performance than what Northwestern showed against the Spartans.
USC – Out
Previous seeding: Out
USC joined Illinois as one of the few teams to play three B1G games in one week, and the Trojans played great despite the tough travel schedule. Even though USC fell 82-69 to Indiana, a relatively close loss at Assembly Hall is not going to tank the resume of a team that isn’t even in the tournament conversation yet. The Trojans really took a stand when they beat then-No. 13 Illinois on the road 82-72, albeit without Kasparas Jakučionis. Even though you could treat that win as an injury-induced fluke, USC beat Iowa 99-89 in its final game of the week, proving that it was anything but a fluke. If the Trojans find a way to beat No. 24 Wisconsin next week, they will at least move onto the “in consideration” list and might even have a firm place on the bubble.
Washington – Out
Previous seeding: Out
As expected, Washington lost both games on its visit to the state of Michigan. The 88-54 loss to No. 12 Michigan State looked really bad, and although the Huskies looked better against No. 24 Michigan, they still lost 91-75. With a 1-5 start to conference play, Washington is dangerously close to being out of consideration for an at-large bid entirely.
Rutgers – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Rutgers lost to Purdue 68-50 at home, but instead of focusing on the negatives, let’s look at the positive: Rutgers snapped its three-game losing streak with a 75-68 win against UCLA. Although the Scarlet Knights would need to play nearly perfect basketball to have an at-large case for the NCAA Tournament, who’s to say that Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper couldn’t get hot for a few days and lead this team to a B1G Tournament title?
Minnesota – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Minnesota played both Wisconsin and Maryland close in the first half, despite being on the road in both games. Unfortunately, the Golden Gophers lost 80-59 after only trailing Wisconsin by one point at the half, and then lost 77-71 after leading Maryland 35-32 at the half. Minnesota fell to 0-6 in B1G play, and barring a miracle, the Golden Gophers won’t even be playing in the B1G Tournament, let alone the Big Dance.