The lights were too bright for some, but not all, contenders in the B1G.
It’s never too early to start contemplating conference championship contenders and pretenders, but the B1G might be too much of a mess to sort out as things currently stand. No. 13 Illinois is the highest-ranked team in the AP poll, but the Illini have a conference loss to Northwestern already. No. 16 Michigan State and No. 24 Michigan are reviving their rivalry, as those two teams are the only teams left undefeated in conference play, at 3-0 and 4-0, respectively. Then there’s the West Coast darlings, No. 15 Oregon and No. 22 UCLA, which have very talented rosters, but have both started out 2-2 in conference play.
The B1G has six teams ranked this week (No. 20 Purdue is the one team I didn’t mention already), with Nebraska and Wisconsin receiving a ton of ranked votes as well. This conference not only has the depth that it always has in terms of getting a high number of teams into the tournament, but also the top of the conference might be the best it has been in a few years.
Illinois – No. 3 Seed (No. 9 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 5 Seed (No. 19 overall)
Illinois was one of the three de facto West Coast trip guinea pigs this week, and the Illini passed the cross-country tests with flying colors (unlike one of their counterparts). The predictive metrics have consistently picked this team as the best of the B1G, and Illinois flexed its muscles and proved it this week. In its first game of the weekend, the Illini trounced then-No. 9 Oregon 109-77. It was just one of those nights where a team caught fire early and never looked back. Illinois shot 16-of-29 (55.2%) from behind the arc against the Ducks but then struggled against Washington a bit. Still, despite shooting a dismal 5-of-26 (19.2%) from three-point land against Washington, the Illini flew back to Champaign with an impressive undefeated weekend after defeating the Huskies 81-77 and improved their seeding to become the highest-seeded team in the B1G.
Oregon – No. 3 Seed (No. 11 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 2 seed (No. 6 overall)
Oregon came into conference play as the highest-ranked team in the B1G, but after just four games, the Ducks find themselves in the middle of the pack in the conference standings at 2-2. Oregon got ran out of its own gym by then-No. 22 Illinois 109-77 to start the week. In their second game of the week, the Ducks trailed Maryland 47-42 after the Terrapins’ first possession of the second half, but embarked on a 14-0 run to take control of the game, and eventually escaped with an 83-79 win. A Quad 1A loss doesn’t destroy a resume, and since Oregon responded by picking up its fifth Quad 1 win of the season, the Ducks didn’t fall too far in the bracket.
Michigan State – No. 4 Seed (No. 15 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 6 seed (No. 23 overall)
No. 16 Michigan State had a tough assignment in its only game of the week. Ohio State was still riding high off beating Kentucky by 20 points a few weeks ago, but the Spartans stopped any momentum the Buckeyes were attempting to build with a 69-62 road win on Friday. That win evened out Michigan State’s record against Quad 1 at 2-2, and with a clean 10-0 mark against all other quadrants this season and a 3-0 conference record, the Spartans are in prime position to claim a single-digit seed in the Big Dance for the fourth season in a row.
Michigan – No. 4 Seed (No. 16 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 7 seed (No. 27 overall)
Michigan started off the week with an 85-74 win against USC, and even though the turnover issues plagued the Wolverines once again and kept the Trojans in the game, Michigan fans can just say ‘a win is a win’. It looked like those same turnover issues (and foul trouble) would cause Michigan’s 45-27 lead against UCLA with 3:11 left in the first half to wither away. While trailing 61-60 with 10:47 left in the second half, Danny Wolf picked up his fourth foul, and it looked like the Bruins would exploit those flaws and take over at home, but that foul had the opposite effect on Michigan. The Wolverines were re-energized and closed out the game on a 34-14 extended run to claim a 94-75 road Quad 1A win against UCLA. The resume is now starting to align with the eye test and strong predictive metrics, and the Wolverines soared in the bracket as a result.
Purdue – No. 5 Seed (No. 19 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 6 Seed (No. 24 overall)
You could make the argument that Purdue is the most battle-tested team in the B1G, and it certainly looked like it last week. The Boilermakers beat Minnesota 81-61 on the road and followed that up with a 79-61 win against Northwestern. Given the level of talent and coaching that teams have in the B1G, counting on Purdue to dominate the conference every season is irresponsible, but the Boilermakers live near the top of the conference standings, and this year is no different. Purdue is 3-1 in conference games, and the arrow is pointing up for the Boilermakers after two strong outings this week.
Wisconsin – No. 6 Seed (No. 21 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 7 Seed (No. 28 overall)
Wisconsin took the biggest 180° turn of any team from its first two conference games to its next two. After losing to Michigan and Illinois in early December, the Badgers responded with an impressive 2-0 showing this week. Wisconsin started off the week by entering the record books with a B1G record 21 made three-pointers against Iowa in a 116-85 blowout win. That margin of victory moved Wisconsin from No. 33 in the NET rankings on Friday morning to No. 25 on Saturday morning. The Badgers followed up that victory with a 75-63 road win against an always dangerous Rutgers team. With two solid Quad 2 wins this week, Wisconsin saw a solid improvement in the bracket.
UCLA – No. 7 Seed (No. 27 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 3 Seed (No. 11 overall)
UCLA ending up with an 0-2 week at any point this season seemed unlikely, but that’s exactly what just happened. The Bruins’ first loss of the week came on the road against Nebraska in a game where UCLA shot 4-of-28 from behind the arc. Nebraska claimed the 66-58 victory, and the Bruins’ dreadful shooting didn’t get any better against No. 24 Michigan at home. UCLA made two threes at the beginning of the second half that allowed the Bruins to climb back into the game, but, by the end of the night, UCLA shot 2-of-20 on three-point attempts against the Wolverines. Even with those two timely shots and 34 free throw attempts, UCLA couldn’t generate much other offense, leading to a 94-75 loss and a precipitous drop in seeding this week.
Nebraska – No. 9 Seed (No. 33 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 10 Seed (No. 38 overall)
Nebraska won 66-58 in a rock fight with then-No. 15 UCLA. Both teams shot below 40% from the field, and Brice Williams led all scorers in the game with 16 points, despite shooting 2-of-12 from the field himself. The Cornhuskers then went on the road with an opportunity to come away with the ever-evasive 2-0 week in two Quad 1 games, and although they led 52-37 in the second half, they fell 97-87 in overtime. Nebraska was very close to pulling off a picture-perfect 2-0 week, but the Cornhuskers’ seeding still benefited from a big win earlier in the week.
Ohio State – No. 9 Seed (No. 36 overall)
Previous seeding: No. 8 seed (No. 31 overall)
The Buckeyes had a perfect opportunity to continue their momentum against then-No. 18 Michigan State at home on Friday but dropped that game 69-62. Then, the eye test from watching the Buckeyes in their clash with Minnesota on Monday night looked terrible, as Ohio State needed double overtime to avoid suffering a Quad 3 loss at Minnesota. Although the Buckeyes narrowly avoided a disastrous week with the 89-88 win, Ohio State has to play more consistent for the rest of the season if it wants to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since the 2021-22 season.
Maryland – No. 11 Seed (No. 41 overall, Last Four Byes)
Previous seeding: No. 7 seed (No. 26 overall)
While Illinois went 2-0 on its West Coast trip against Washington and Oregon, Maryland did the opposite. The Terrapins started the weekend with a 75-69 loss to Washington in a game where it looked like they just didn’t bring enough energy. Maryland looked more like the best version of itself against Oregon, but the Terrapins still blew a 13-point lead and lost 83-79. Maryland still has very strong rankings in both the NET and Kenpom to hold up its resume this week, but after the Terrapins’ two losses, they are closer to the bubble than they have been at any point this season.
Iowa – First Four Out
Previous seeding: No. 11 Seed (No. 46 overall, Last Four In)
In its first game of the week, Iowa had a rough outing at the Kohl Center. Wisconsin demolished the Hawkeyes 116-85 on Friday, but it wasn’t all bad this week for Iowa. The Hawkeyes were down 15 points in the second half to Nebraska last night but rallied to win 97-87 in overtime for a much-needed home win. Josh Dix and Payton Sandfort combined for 61 points on 13-of-20 shooting from behind the arc against the ‘Huskers. Iowa couldn’t quite hang on to its spot in the bracket, but that was only because of positive results from the teams below them on the bubble.
Indiana – First Four Out
Previous seeding: Out
Indiana looked dead in the water after shooting 1-of-20 from behind the arc against Winthrop in a close win, but, all of a sudden, the Hoosiers started to both take and make more threes. According to Kenpom, Indiana ranks 315th in three-point attempts per field goal attempts this season, but the Hoosiers shot 21-of-50 (42.0%) combined from three-point land this week in two wins. Indiana beat Rutgers sans Dylan Harper 84-74 to start the week, and then closed out the week with a 77-71 victory against Penn State on the road. Those were not exactly needle-moving wins, but the Hoosiers’ 2-0 week that included a Quad 1 win was just enough to move Indiana squarely onto the bubble.
Penn State – Next Four Out
Previous seeding: No. 11 Seed (No. 45 overall, Last Four In)
Penn State is lucky to be floating around the bubble this week. The Nittany Lions were dangerously close to suffering two consecutive Quad 2 home losses this week, and, as ‘Cats fans already know all too well, a few calls going a different way would have led to an 0-2 week for Penn State. Since the Nittany Lions did get the 50/50 calls to go in its favor, Penn State beat Northwestern 84-80. Against Indiana, the Nittany Lions allowed the Hoosiers to get hot early in the second half and lost 77-71. To make matters even more stressful than life on the bubble already is, Penn State has to play both a red-hot Illinois team and a hungry Oregon team next week. Looking on the bright side, if the Nittany Lions can win one (or both) of those games, they should be back in the bracket next Wednesday.
Northwestern – In Consideration
Previous seeding: First Four Out
Northwestern went on the road to take on Penn State and No. 20 Purdue, and while the road trip could have gone worse, it also definitely could have gone a lot better. The Wildcats lost 84-80 to Penn State in a game where the Nittany Lions shot 45 free throws. After the ‘Cats suffered their third heartbreaking loss of the season, a road clash with Purdue was up next. The dynamic duo of Brooks Barnhizer and Nick Martinelli scored just 21 combined points en route to a 79-61 loss at Mackey Arena. It was an ugly week for Northwestern’s tournament chances, but the ‘Cats still have opportunities ahead of them, including a game against No. 16 Michigan State on Sunday.
Rutgers – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Rutgers continues to rely on Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey, but those two stars aren’t enough to win this team enough games. With Dylan Harper out, Bailey scored 39 points against Indiana, but the Scarlet Knights lost 84-74 on the road. Next up was a matchup with Wisconsin at home, but Dylan Harper only played 15 minutes and didn’t score, while Bailey scored just nine points on 3-of-16 shooting in a 75-63 loss. This team isn’t going to the Big Dance as an at-large and frankly should just be focused on making the B1G Tournament and hoping for a miracle if they even get there in the first place.
USC – Out
Previous seeding: Out
As expected, USC fell 85-74 to Michigan at home, but the Trojans played very well, even in defeat. If USC can play more like the team that beat Washington 85-61 on the road and less like the team that lost 71-36 to Saint Mary’s for the rest of the season, the Trojans are good enough to pull off a few upsets and create some chaos, even without getting anywhere close to an NCAA Tournament appearance.
Washington – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Washington had a great week. The Huskies picked up their first win as a member of the B1G with a 75-69 win against Maryland, and even though the Huskies failed to make it a 2-0 week at home with a 81-77 loss to then-No. 22 Illinois, Washington proved that when playing at its peak, this team can compete with anyone in the conference. It will still take a Herculean effort for Washington to make the tournament as an at-large, but the Huskies need to keep playing with a lot of effort, taking the rest of the season one game at a time.
Minnesota – Out
Previous seeding: Out
Minnesota has typically played relatively normal games this season, but the Golden Gophers invented a new way to lose this week. Although Purdue’s 81-61 win against Minnesota was expected, the Gophers competed well against Ohio State…until disaster struck. While protecting a 73-71 lead in overtime, Minnesota employed the strategy of fouling up three with just four seconds left. The only problem was that Mike Mitchell Jr. had just missed both free throws (on a night where the Gophers shot 44.4% from the charity stripe as a team) when Kadyn Betts fouled John Mobley Jr., meaning the Gophers only led by two when Betts fouled. Mobley Jr. knocked down both free throws, sent the game to double overtime, and the Buckeyes eventually prevailed with an 89-88 win. Sorry Gopher fans. That one had to hurt.