Despite four new teams, the outlook for the Big Dance is the same.
It’s here. The anticipation is over. The transfer portal is closed (maybe). The college basketball season is less than a week away, and with new teams, coaches and players everywhere in the Big Ten, the only certain occurrence in this conference is uncertainty reigning supreme. Every team in the Big Ten has a legitimate chance at making the 2025 NCAA Tournament, although some teams are much more likely to make a deep run than others. Of course, for the preseason edition of a bracketology column, this will look like power rankings or a recruiting recap, but remember as the season goes on that a team’s overall resume is different than how it is playing from week to week. With that being said, let’s take a look at the bubbliest conference in the country and how the teams project heading into the season.
Indiana – No. 4 Seed (No. 16 overall)
The Hoosiers recruited four-star Bryson Tucker, but the transfer portal and a few notable returners from last year’s team are the areas where Indiana really separates from the rest of the conference. Indiana brought in a familiar face with former Illinois sharpshooter Luke Goode (a career 39.2% shooter from beyond the arc), along with Oumar Ballo (Arizona), Kanaan Carlyle (Stanford), Myles Rice (Washington State), Dallas James (South Carolina State) and Langdon Hatton (Bellarmine) to earn the distinction of the No. 2 transfer class in the country, according to 247 Sports. Ballo is a two-time All-Pac-12 First Team selection, Rice won Pac-12 Freshman of the Year and made the All-Pac-12 First Team last season, and Carlyle was named as an honorable mention on the Pac-12 All-Freshman Team. Oh, and don’t forget, Mackenzie Mgbako returns to Indiana after sharing Big Ten Freshman of the Year honors with Iowa’s Owen Freeman. Malik Reneau also returns after earning an honorable mention on the All-Big Ten team and Trey Galloway (10.6 PPG) returns as a veteran leader for the Hoosiers as well. It’s safe to say this team is absolutely loaded with talent and has the most upside in the conference, but moving the Hoosiers up to a two or three seed is difficult without seeing these players on the floor together.
Purdue – No. 5 Seed (No. 17 overall)
Before Boliermaker fans go crazy, there is virtually no separation between Purdue and Indiana heading into the season. The visible difference in seeding is there, but the real difference between No. 16 and No. 17 in the preseason is the equivalent of a rounding error in a math problem. But if you want to talk about differences, not seeing Zach Edey in a Purdue uniform might be the biggest change the Big Ten will see this season. Purdue didn’t bring in a splashy portal class like Indiana did, but anyone who thinks Matt Painter can’t get production out of 7’2” sophomore Will Berg and 7’4” first-year Daniel Jacobsen hasn’t followed the Big Ten long enough. In addition to those two giants up front, the Boilermakers will rely on Trey Kaufman-Renn (6.4 PPG in ‘23-24) and Caleb Furst (2.2 PPG) to take sizable leaps in production to make up for the loss of Edey. But don’t forget that Braden Smith joined Edey on the All-Big Ten First Team last season while averaging 12.0 points, 7.5 assists and 5.8 rebounds, and returns to lead Purdue again. Returners Fletcher Loyer (10.3 PPG) Myles Colvin (3.3 PPG) and Camden Heide (3.3 PPG) will all factor into Purdue’s rotation once again. The Boilermakers will take a step back in 2024-25, but they still have a good chance of earning a Big Ten Championship repeat.
UCLA – No. 6 Seed (No. 23 overall)
UCLA had a rough season in 2023-24. The Bruins went 16-17, but nine of those 17 losses were two-possession losses, and UCLA was a relatively young team last season. But the Bruins have risen this high not because of projected improvement from returning players, but because of cleaning up in the transfer portal. UCLA’s class is ranked the No. 9 transfer class in the country, according to 247 Sports, and just looking at scoring numbers from last season, it’s easy to see why. UCLA brings in six transfers: Tyler Bilodeau (Oregon State, 14.3 PPG); Skyy Clark (Louisville, 13.2 PPG); Eric Dailey Jr. (Oklahoma State, 9.3 PPG); Dominick Harris (Loyola Marymount, 14.3 PPG); Kobe Johnson (USC, 10.9 PPG); and William Kyle III (South Dakota State, 13.1 PPG). If you made a team of only those six players, it would have ranked 6th in the Big Ten with 75.1 PPG. Adding those six to a roster that already had three double-digit scorers (Sebastian Mack, Dylan Andrews and Lazar Stefanovic) is a recipe for a revived offense and a much-improved UCLA team.
Illinois – No. 7 Seed (No. 25 overall)
Illinois finally made the deep tournament run it was looking for under Brad Underwood as the Fighting Illini made the Elite Eight, before falling to the eventual National Champion UConn Huskies. Junior Ty Rodgers and sophomore Dra-Gibbs Lawhorn are the only two players who played in that Elite Eight game remaining on the Illinois roster. But the Illini are the only Big Ten team with both a transfer class and high school recruiting class in the top 20 of the 247 Sports rankings. Illinois has an infusion of talent with too many players to talk about, but going by the rankings, the Illini have one five-star high school recruit (forward Will Riley), four four-star transfers (forwards Carey Booth, Ben Humrichous and Tre White, and guard Kylan Boswell) three four-star high school recruits (forward Morez Johnson Jr., guard Kasparas Jakucionis and center Tomislav Ivisic), one three-star transfer (forward Jake Davis) and one three-star high school recruit (forward Jason Jakstys). Illinois is easily one of the most talented teams in the conference, but the Illini land as a No. 7 Seed because they simply have too many moving parts.
Michigan – No. 7 Seed (No. 27 overall)
If you thought Illinois had a lot of moving parts, this Michigan team redefines what the term moving parts means. Dusty May replaces Juwan Howard at the helm for the Wolverines, and he brings 2024 All-AAC Second Team big man Vladislav Goldin with him from FAU. Along with Goldin, May brings in another one of the Big Ten’s four top-ten transfer classes. Joining Goldin in the frontcourt are Yale transfer Danny Wolf (14.1 PPG, 9.7 RPG in ‘23-24), Alabama transfer Sam Walters (5.4 PPG), and returner Will Tschetter (6.8 PPG). In the backcourt, Roddy Gayle Jr. (13.5 PPG) makes a rare move from Scarlet and Gray to Maize and Blue and is joined by Auburn transfer Tre Donaldson (6.7 PPG), North Texas transfer Rubin Jones (12.1 PPG), returner Nimari Burnett (9.6 PPG) and first-years Justin Pippen, Durral “Phat Phat” Brooks and L.J. Cason. Michigan had a terrible 2023-24 season, but a complete overhaul of both the roster and coaching staff has the Wolverines trending in the right direction heading into a new era.
Michigan State – No. 8 Seed (No. 29 overall)
Mainstays Tyson Walker, A.J. Hoggard, Malik Hall and Mady Sissoko all departed from Michigan State, but its roster construction falls more in line with the likes of Purdue, as the Spartans will still rely on a lot of production from returning players. Szymon Zapala joins Michigan State from Longwood, but the big story for the Spartans is Tom Izzo finally making a big splash in the portal by convincing four-star transfer Frankie Fidler, who averaged 20.1 points per game in his junior season at University of Nebraska Omaha, to come to East Lansing as a senior. Four-star guards Jase Richardson and Kur Teng will get some minutes as well, but the Spartans will be looking to Fidler, along with juniors Tre Holloman, Carson Cooper, Jaxon Kohler and senior Jaden Akins to be leaders as upperclassmen, while redshirt first-year Jeremy Fears Jr. and sophomores Xavier Booker and Coen Carr lead Michigan State into the future.
Oregon – No. 8 Seed (No. 30 overall)
Oregon has the second-best roster of any Big Ten newcomer, landing Dana Altman’s Ducks at a No. 8 seed. In terms of experienced options, Keeshawn Barthelemy, Jackson Shelstad and Jadrian Tracey return in the backcourt and are joined by Toledo transfer Ra’Heim Moss (15.4 PPG in ‘23-24) and Villanova transfer TJ Bamba (10.1 PPG). In the frontcourt, Oregon has Kwame Evans Jr. and Nate Bittle (who looked great in limited action last season) returning, and they will be joined by Georgetown transfer Supreme Cook (10.5 PPG) and Stanford transfer Brandon Angel (13.0 PPG). Altman has nine experienced options and also four-star first-year guard Jamari Phillips to go to, and his squad looks like a team that should finish in the top half of the conference.
Ohio State – No. 8 Seed (No. 31 overall)
Ohio State lost five players (Gayle Jr., Zed Key, Scotty Middleton, Bowen Hardman and Felix Okpara) to the transfer portal, but the Buckeyes might have replaced those five with even more talent coming in from the portal. Ohio State has a great balance of talent and experience in the frontcourt as sophomore transfers Sean Stewart (Duke) and Aaron Bradshaw (Kentucky) give the Buckeyes two former five stars, who will play alongside the more experienced Micah Parrish (135 games played at San Diego State). In the backcourt, Meechie Johnson (14.1 PPG in ‘23-24) makes his return to Columbus after spending two seasons at South Carolina, and Ques Glover (14.7 PPG at Samford in ‘22-23) joins the Buckeyes from Kansas State after missing all of last season with an injury. Ohio State’s roster is a less experienced, but slightly more talented version of the Oregon and Michigan rosters that rank ahead of them, but that gives the Buckeyes potential for a lot of upside as well.
Maryland – No. 9 Seed (No. 34 overall)
Maryland will have to replace the significant production lost from not having Jahmir Young and Donta Scott any more, but the Terrapins reloaded and then some. Jordan Geronimo, Jahari Long, Deshawn Harris-Smith and Julian Reese are the four most important returning players for Maryland, with five-star first-year center Derik Queen looking to form a dynamic frontcourt duo with Reese as well. Then, there’s the five transfers Maryland brought in: Selton Miguel (USF); Jay Young (Memphis); Tafara Gapare (Georgia Tech); Ja’Kobi Gillespie (Belmont); and Rodney Rice (Virginia Tech). Reese, Gillespie (17.2 PPG in ‘23-24) and Miguel (14.7 PPG in ‘23-24) headline a solid core of a versatile roster that will likely end up near the bubble, but has the pieces to make some noise.
Rutgers – No. 10 Seed (No. 37 overall)
This is probably the team that readers have been waiting for maybe since Illinois was listed (and maybe even before that), but experience tends to outperform young, raw talent. Don’t get me wrong, Airious “Ace” Bailey and Dylan Harper (the No. 2 and No. 3 recruits in the 2024 class) are going to do great things at Rutgers and will have an immediate impact. Merrimack transfer Jordan Derkack (17.0 PPG in ‘23-24) and Eastern Michigan transfer Tyson Acuff (21.7 PPG in ‘23-24) will slot in perfectly next to Harper to make an elite Big Ten backcourt. However, the loss of Cliff Omoruyi means the Scarlet Knights lack the dominant interior presence that is necessary to shut down the dominant bigs like the aforementioned Ballo, Bilodeau, Goldin and Queen.
Iowa – No. 11 Seed (No. 42 overall, Last Four In)
If you thought that ten teams was going to be the last of the tournament teams in the Big Ten, think again! Under Fran McCaffery, Iowa has been a consistent tournament program, and fans should expect more of the same in 2024-25. The Hawkeyes probably won’t be in the tournament by a comfortable margin, but led by Co-Big Ten Freshman of the Year Owen Freeman, All-Big Ten Third Team forward Payton Sandfort and Morehead State transfer Drew Thelwell (10.0 PPG in ‘23-24), the Hawkeyes should be good enough to at least be in the conversation for the tournament.
Northwestern – No. 11 Seed (No. 44 overall, Last Four In)
Northwestern made program history by appearing in its second consecutive NCAA Tournament last season. But as the Boo Buie era ends, a new era in Evanston begins. Relying on better health this season, returners Brooks Barnhizer (14.6 PPG in ‘23-24), Ty Berry (11.6 PPG), Nick Martinelli (8.8 PPG) and Matthew Nicholson (5.3 PPG) make up a roster core that is easily good enough to allow the Wildcats to compete in the middle of the Big Ten pack again this season, despite what the preseason conference polls might say.
USC – First Four Out
The ‘Muss Bus has no seats left on it. Eric Musselman packed up his bags to move west and take control of the USC program and he brought 11 — yes, you read that right — transfers with him. The Trojans also bring in two four-star first-years which makes this roster one giant question mark. With no roster continuity whatsoever, I can’t put this team in the tournament field to start the year, but wouldn’t be surprised if they ended up in the projected field sooner rather than later.
Nebraska – First Four Out
With the losses of Keisei Tominaga, Josiah Allick, Jamarques Lawrence and C.J. Wilcher, the Cornhuskers lost just enough to fall down a tier from a tournament team to one that just misses out on the Big Dance. But Nebraska got Connor Essegian, Berke Büyüktuncel, Gavin Griffiths, Braxton Meah, Rollie Worster and Andrew Morgan in the transfer portal, and Rienk Mast, Juwan Gary, Brice Williams and Ahron Ulis won’t allow this team to fall completely out of the conversation.
Wisconsin – Next Four Out
The Badgers were in free fall for most of the second half of the ‘23-24 season and things didn’t get any better in the offseason as Chucky Hepburn, Connor Essegian and A.J. Storr left for the transfer portal and Tyler Wahl graduated. Wisconsin attempted to replace that production with transfers John Tonje (Missouri), Xavier Amos (Northern Illinois) and Camren Hunter (Central Arkansas), but losing those four looks like too much adversity to overcome.
Washington – N/A
It is possible that Utah State transfer Great Osobor is the best player in the Big Ten in the 2024-25 season, but his team could still end up in last place in the conference. This Huskies squad, even with the No. 8 transfer class in the country, is still thought of as a bottom-tier Big Ten team, but placing DJ Davis, Mekhi Mason and Tyler Harris around Osobor will present problems for Big Ten teams without great wing defenders.
Penn State – N/A
The Nittany Lions retained All-Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, Ace Baldwin Jr. and added Tennessee transfer Freddie Dilione V to the backcourt to run the show with Baldwin Jr.. Guards Jameel Brown and Kanye Clary transferred away from Penn State, meaning the Nittany Lions will rely on Baldwin Jr., Dilione V and returners D’Marco Dunn and Nick Kern Jr. to lead the way in the backcourt. Transfers Eli Rice (Nebraska), Kachi Nzeh (Xavier) and Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Northern Illinois) join Zach Hicks in the frontcourt of a Penn State team that just doesn’t look as great on paper as some of the other rosters in the Big Ten.
Minnesota – N/A
Minnesota was near the bottom of the Big Ten last season, and then things got worse as Elijah Hawkins, Isaiah Ihnen, Pharrel Payne, Josh Ola-Joseph, Kris Keinys and Braeden Carrington all transferred out of the program, with Cam Christie leaving for the NBA Draft as well. The Golden Gophers held serve in the transfer portal by securing six commitments from transfers, but the talent level of this Minnesota squad decreased overall from last year.