Over 1500 players were taken in the last four rounds of the draft from 2011-2020. What happened to them, and how often did GMs “hit” on those picks?
The NFL Draft concludes with four rounds that will constitute just over 1500 selections over the ten years being studied. Only around 10% of these picks (153 total) will become regular starters over their first five years. Under one-quarter of them (23%) will be reliable contributors in the league. A very small handful of these players will be stars (38 in total). Roughly equal numbers will be out of the league in three years or less (662) than will make it to at least five years (672).
In the “typical” draft year, then, fewer than half of the teams in the league will find even a single regular starter on Day 3. There will be roughly one regular contributor per year per team. There are fewer than four “stars” per draft class found after the first two days.
However, despite all of these struggles, the third day of the draft still represents a massive pool of resources for NFL teams. Through it, franchises discover players who will collectively contribute 18,147 starts to the league, more than either of the two previous days. Nearly 50,000 games of play (more than the other two days combined) are offered by the players drafted in these four rounds. Day Three players who do not start have in no way busted or disappointed. They have instead succeeded by making it on the field after one of the hardest “audition” processes in the world.
Round 4
During his first five years in the league, the average fourth-round player sees 44 games while only starting in 19. The median number of games played here is 59, whereas the median number of starts is 12. Only 5% of these players will make a Pro Bowl, but 60% of them will see at least five years in the league in some capacity. Less than a third (29%) will fail to hit a fourth year.
Players in the bottom third of the fourth round have a median of four starts and only 31 total games played. The 376 fourth-round selections discover 16 total stars.
Round 5
The last round where a majority of drafted players last five years, the fifth round produces only five regular starters per year (49 over 10 years) but about twice as many reliable contributors (92). More than a third (37%) will fail to see four years in the league, but the round as a whole sees an average of 38 games and 15 starts per player–even if the median for games started sits at 6 for the round. However, players in the bottom third of the fifth round have a median of 1 start and 20 games played.
Taken together with the fourth round, there are a total of 722 draft selections that produce 31 stars to be found among the 112 starters and 229 reliable contributors. Additionally, 409 of these players succeed in making it to the five-year mark in the NFL.
Round 6
The penultimate round of the draft still includes players who might see significant playing time. The average number of games played for this round is still at 30, with 9 starts. The median is lower with only 3 starts among 26 games, suggesting that the round definitely divides into the players who will make it and those who will not. This is reinforced by the performance of the bottom third, which has a single game appearance at its median (with no starts). Only 4% of the players in this round will earn a Pro Bowl within five years, and only 40% of the grouping will have a career that long. By contrast, 46% will fail to see four years.
Round 7
The seventh round has barely one regular starter per year (14 in the whole decade) and four reliable contributors (42). The median player in this group will never start in his first five years and will play in only 13 games, but the average is more encouraging, with 6 starts over 22 games. Even removing the gems, though, players get opportunities. Excluding all reliable contributors and regular starters, there are still roughly 35 players per year putting in nearly a thousand starts and 5,562 game appearances.
Quiet Success Stories
Up until this point, the focus has been on stars, starters, and contributors. However, Day Three represents the best time to slow and make another observation. The majority of the players (1501) drafted will be selected on Day Three. Setting aside the 362 starters and reliable contributors in the group, there are still 944 other players who made it into an NFL game, Most of those (634) even earned at least one start in the league. Many of these players found yards or stopped them from being gained, caught touchdowns or tipped passes. Sacked the quarterback or blocked to buy him an extra quarter second. Some of these players fall through the cracks in any set of definitions (Folorunso Fatukasi, for example, played in 59 games and started in 36 of them). More detail is sometimes necessary.
Therefore, it’s time to start breaking down player contributions by draft status and position, starting with the offense.